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Thursday, July 26

26th Jul - EU Open: Early weekend?

Markets are dull: S&P reached previous lows while EURUSD kept above the 1.20 psychological level (low 1.2050). S&P resistance around 1340, EURUSDU around 1.2150. Technically, as the direction is down, this bounce should be sold, but we are at the low end of the recent trading range and there is relatively little events or news to anticipate, so I have no strong views. QE discussion seems to dominate, as Eurocrats are leaving their offices for their well-deserved holidays. I bet Friday will be a heavily directional day.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia Today: Murmurings of more China stimulus? But risk slumbersSaxo Bank
Today’s Asian session started favourably, with equity markets opening higher and risk currencies holding onto gains made last night, particularly versus the USD. However, no fresh news or data meant there was a lack of conviction to push risk higher.

Market Preview: US durable goods orders eyedSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open mostly higher Thursday amid rising expectations of further monetary easing from the US Federal Reserve. Markets await the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, which is expected to show a decline for June.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
With only second-tier data on the agenda  for today, markets will likely be looking towards tomorrow’s all-important Q2 GDP data out of the US  as this could be instrumental in driving market sentiment ahead of next week’s ECB and Fed meetings. However, a range of key earnings reports are on the agenda for today. 

Morning Briefing: “The night was black was no use holding back”BNY Mellon
Unfortunately for the 'periphery', Germany and the ECB are still not ready to throw caution to the wind

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Spanish bailout inevitable, but not necessarily imminenteconomistmeg
The biggest downsides of any bailout are the strict conditions attached to it, but Spain is already subject to many of these – including the excessive deficit procedure, which requires it to commit to deficit and debt targets over the next few years. What conditionality isn’t already demanded by the European Commission has been imposed by the markets.

Schaeuble Declares Markets Wrong as Europe Heads to VacationBB

Spain Can Still RiseProject Syndicate
Just to show how much fantasy there still is: Taking inspiration from their national team’s victory at Euro 2012, Spaniards must rediscover what it takes to succeed. Dealt a difficult hand, Spain can overcome its critical situation only through hard work, responsibility, respect, and loyalty, thereby ensuring its standing in Europe and beyond.

Examining the Fed’s other policy optionsSelf-Evident
So what are the “other tools” everyone is talking about?

QE3 TalkStephen Williamson

Bernanke's DogsThe Short Side of the Long

Doubts about Quantitative Easing and What they Mean for the FOMCEconoMonitor

Morgan Stanley: Impossible for governments to grow their way back to solvencyZH
Doing nothing would sail governments towards the whirlpool of national insolvency – at some stage. But avoiding insolvency would risk being monstered by recession.

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