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| Spanish 10 year bond yield - uptrend |
The morning seems to start without much price correction. SPX effectively in a range with more to go before the upper limit - but not much room left. Same thing in EURUSD's downtrend - upside should be limited from here. I wrote my updated views and linked to plenty of views on the Fed and the ECB last night, please have a look:
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
News
roundup – Between
The Hedges
The 6am Cut
London – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
Markets Headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
After last night’s explosive EUR rally, Asia saw a mild correction in subdued
activity but the single currency appeared to find support on the dips. Meanwhile,
soft Japanese data is pressuring the BOJ to do more to stimulate the economy.
European markets are expected to open firmer
Friday as investor sentiment is buoyed following positive comments from ECB
head Mario Draghi yesterday. Investors await the US GDP and German CPI due today.
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank (pdf)
Focus today will undoubtedly be on US Q2 GDP figures: we look for growth to be
unchanged at 1.9% q/q (AR) from Q1 versus consensus of 1.5%...A weaker-than-expected
GDP number today would clearly add
to fears of a prolonged global slump but should at the same time revive hopes
of more Fed easing; hence this would not necessarily be a
one-way street for risk appetite.
Morning Briefing: New perspective – BNY
Mellon
What should we make of Mr Draghi’s heavy hints
of action?
EUROPE
Euro Euphemism – The Economist
François Hollande is trying to wriggle out of Germany’s demand for more political union
Moody's cut to the outlook of Germany's top credit rating came as a serious blow to the country's confidence
this week. German commentators on Wednesday don't seem particularly surprised
by the change, but warn of worse things to come
As the euro-crisis, now in its third year,
grows in breadth and intensity, many analysts conclude that Europe’s leaders are stupid. Perhaps
not. Perhaps they pursue hidden
goals. Goals important to them, if not
to Europe’s peoples.
EUROPE: ECB
Sceptics abound as Mario Draghi's ECB bond
'bluff' electrifies global markets – The
Telegraph
The ECB has opened the door to emergency
support for the Spanish and Italian bond markets, setting off a blistering
rally on bourses across the world.
Goldman Sachs: Broken transmission and
non-standard ECB policy – ZH
(instead of SMP) The ECB may therefore look to
support private-sector financing more directly, by further easing of collateral
eligibility, increased liquidity support to the banking sector and outright
purchases of private-sector assets originating in both the bank and corporate
sectors.
EUROPE: PIIGS
Spain can be shored up for a while; but its woes contain an alarming lesson
for the entire euro zone
The beleaguered governments in Madrid and Rome are battling with
their highly indebted regions
Greek bail-out: Is “Grexit” at hand? – The Economist
Greece has only a couple of weeks left to convince its creditors
The Spanish patient – The Economist
A full bail-out of the euro area’s
fourth-largest economy is looming
Greeks Live in Dread of Troika Verdict – Spiegel
Financial inspectors from the troika have
arrived in Greece to draft their final report on whether the country has made enough
progress with its austerity and reform efforts. But many Greeks have already
lost hope and are counting on the worst -- an exit from the euro zone.
USA
Four Common Mistakes about the Fed – A
Dash of Insight
The Fed is Sidelined by the Upcoming Election -
The Fed Acts Based Upon the Stock Market - The Fed is Out of Ammunition - The
Fed Knows the Employment Data
Chuck Norris Central Banking Promoted by Fed
Official – Macro
and Other Market Musings
The ability of the Fed to shape expectations
such that the market does most of the heavy lifting has become known among
Market Monetarist as the Chuck Norris effect.
In Case Of Collapsing Earnings, Expand
Multiples And Pray –
ZH
The correlation between the S&P 500 in the
last two years and the P/E multiple shows that performance has been driven
almost entirely by multiple-expansion alone. Forward P/E is now getting close
to recent peaks suggesting the market is far from cheap and on a longer-term
view (based on both an as-reported and operating basis), the S&P 500
appears expensive