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| Spanish 10y yield (click to zoom) |
The Spanish
yields (10y, 2y) are now
currently at an important juncture. Supposing one does not know about the
newsflow and just looking at the charts hints that similar moves have been
typical – as the yields have made new highs, some sort of verbal or policy
intervention has been done, and the markets have calmed a bit – but the
previous efforts have not lasted long. The recent drop in yields still fits
this pattern perfectly, and that would suggest short bond positions. Draghi may
have overpromised, but that is perhaps not a negative thing – he (and others as
well) might be tempted to overdeliver, so the good old “buy the rumor, sell the
news” might not hold this time.
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| Spanish 2y yield (click to zoom) |
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| S&P index looks strong - again |
On top of
the European policy response, there will be the FED. They will do something, or maybe a
combination of several measures. Perhaps they will do it not now but the next
time, or perhaps they will coordinate their actions with other central banks to
really “send a message”. US
stock market is nearing the recent rising channel’s upside, and again just
looking at the chart shows that direction is up, target levels are very near
but there is still no sign of weakness. Out-of-the-money put options might be
an interesting purchase around current levels – possibility ending the week at
the bottom of the range is not that far-fetched. Otherwise, waiting for a
topping formation on hourly charts would be the next action.
EUR/USD is
interesting – the magical 1.20-level was rejected, and the price has done what
it has loved doing – breaking to marginal new lows and then coming back up
slightly above the previous lows. The resistance area is around 1.23-1.24, and
we ended there on Friday. Much depends on which one prints most – the ECB or
the FED. As I have argued previously and
elsewhere, solid policy response (=printing) by the ECB is not necessarily
negative for the euro. It might actually strengthen the euro a lot. This is
what the market did last week!
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (updated!)
Pop music too loud and all sounds the same:
official – Reuters
Comforting news for anyone over the age of 35,
scientists have worked out that modern pop music really is louder and does all
sound the same.
Forget the Booze. The Mad Men’s Best Friend Was
SABRE – Wired
An Englishman at the first modern Olympics,
1896 – Fortnightly
Review
Game Makers See Jackpot As States Make Online
Gambling Legal – Businessweek
The Next Wave of Factory Robots – technology
review
Robots designed to work alongside humans could change
the way we think of manufacturing.
Serving at the pinnacle of such an organization
would be a remarkably powerful position for any man. But Kaspersky’s rise is
particularly notable—and to some, downright troubling—given his KGB-sponsored
training, his tenure as a Soviet intelligence officer, his alliance with
Vladimir Putin’s regime, and his deep and ongoing relationship with Russia’s
Federal Security Service, or FSB. Of course, none of this history is ever
mentioned in Cancun.
“Every country has, along with its core
civilities and traditions, some kind of inner madness, a belief so irrational
that even death and destruction cannot alter it.”
Round-up of the latest psych and neuro news – The British
Psychological Society
We Are Alive: Bruce Springsteen at sixty-two – The
New Yorker
Tune in Next Week – The
New Yorker
The curious staying power of the cliffhanger
6 Mind-Blowing Things People Built in Their
Backyard – cracked
1968
Playboy Interview on Mortality, the Fear of Flying, and the Purpose of
Existence
Happy Birthday, Aldous Huxley – Brain
Pickings
A Rare, Prophetic 1958 Interview by Mike
Wallace
Einstein’s Big Idea (1h 50min) – Farnam
Street
dramatizes the remarkable story behind this
equation. E = mc^2 was just one of several extraordinary breakthroughs that
Einstein made in 1905, including the completion of his special theory of
relativity, his identification of proof that atoms exist, and his explanation
of the nature of light, which would win him the Nobel Prize in Physics. Among
Einstein’s ideas, E = mc^2 is by far the most famous. Yet how many people know
what it really means?
Blood in the Water – Wikipedia
A water polo match between Hungary and the USSR at the 1956 Melbourne Olympics. The match, which took place on December 6, 1956, was against the background of the 1956 Hungarian Revolution and saw Hungary defeat the USSR 4–0
Imagining the future. Here are my guesses. Post
yours as well. – Fabius Maximus
Why Do Supervillains Fascinate Us? A
Psychological Perspective – Wired