The picks from my ending week's posts.
EURO CRISIS
EU Summit Special
– MoreLiver’s
The Four Paths Forward For The Euro Area – ZH
Goldman Sachs: 1) The Cultural Revolution 2) The Long March 3) The Great Leap Forward 4) Disintegration.
Goldman Sachs: 1) The Cultural Revolution 2) The Long March 3) The Great Leap Forward 4) Disintegration.
Europe’s Great Illusion – Krugman / NYT
The stakes are very high, and Europe’s leaders are, by and large, neither evil nor stupid. But the same could be said, believe it or not, about Europe’s leaders in 1914. We can only hope that this time is different.
The stakes are very high, and Europe’s leaders are, by and large, neither evil nor stupid. But the same could be said, believe it or not, about Europe’s leaders in 1914. We can only hope that this time is different.
The longer the euro area’s debt crisis drags
on, the more it resembles an instrument of economic torture. Like the medieval
rack, every turn of the crisis tears Europe further apart.
Devalue the Euro? – Bruce
Krasting
If I'm right, after a few weeks things turn
south again in the capital markets.Then what?... Devalue
the Euro by 20++%.... Is this
feasible? I say it is. It has happened twice before in history. In 1985 the
world got the Plaza Accord that devalued the dollar and in 1987 we got the
Louvre Accord that revalued the dollar. In both cases, the global central banks
(CBs) and acted together.
Why Germany's TARGET2-Based
Eurozone Preservation Mechanism Is Merely A Ticking Inflationary Timebomb – ZH
Goldman’s views
Goldman’s views
if you were Jens Weidmann or the the Bundestag
or Angela Merkel or the German public for that matter, and you were looking at
the chart below of Bundesbank's assets, what would you think?
The Spanish Bank Bailout: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff – TF
Market Advisors
A look back
at the “Greece is saved”, LTRO1, LTRO2 rallies: It is important to understand that the “agreement” reached last week
was nothing more than political posturing and is, as usual, long on hope and
short on details.
The Failure Of The Firewall – Mark Grant /
ZH
Europe has placed its full concentration on the totally wrong aspect of the problem which has been to ward off the evil spirits of the bond vigilantes instead of on fixing the financial problems of the nations and so the problems continue and worsen…We also learned over the weekend that various takes on the Summit were not all the same as Ms. Merkel’s version differed significantly from the Spanish tale.
Europe has placed its full concentration on the totally wrong aspect of the problem which has been to ward off the evil spirits of the bond vigilantes instead of on fixing the financial problems of the nations and so the problems continue and worsen…We also learned over the weekend that various takes on the Summit were not all the same as Ms. Merkel’s version differed significantly from the Spanish tale.
The Terrible Cost of Inaction in Europe – PIIE
The European leaders this time have offered a more hopeful approach than in the past in both form and substance, but Europe could still be headed in the wrong direction unless the ECB builds an appropriate bridge on the structure of the decisions taken at the June summit and the political process implements those decisions comprehensively and expeditiously.
The European leaders this time have offered a more hopeful approach than in the past in both form and substance, but Europe could still be headed in the wrong direction unless the ECB builds an appropriate bridge on the structure of the decisions taken at the June summit and the political process implements those decisions comprehensively and expeditiously.
Joschka
Fischer: Both sides will have to decide
whether or not they want Europe – that is, full economic and political integration. Economically, they
must choose either joint liability and a transfer union or monetary
re-nationalization. Politically, the choice is whether to empower a common
government and parliament or return to full sovereignty.
Learning by imagining (nightmare Eurexit scenarios) – alphaville
/ FT
The Crises of Summer – Project
Syndicate
What has produced the populist backlash is the
spectacle of political authorities devising technically complicated solutions
that lack credibility. Simply put, the experts need to stop treating Europe’s citizens as if they were stupid.
Nice
“before and after” charts
OTHER
Emerging Markets Quantitative Review – Long
Room / FT (pdf)
Morgan
Stanley’s 106-page giant (free registration
required).
Safe Assets
– Long
Room / FT (pdf)
Goldman
Sachs research note (free registration
required).
The Ultimate History-Of-Markets Chartbook – ZH
Bank of America / Merril Lynch’s 102-page giant (full pdf here)
Bank of America / Merril Lynch’s 102-page giant (full pdf here)
Is The Swiss National Bank Faking It? – ZH
JPM: What we didn’t know is that
approximately half of this intervention was in fact sterilised. This is highly
significant and undermines the credibility of the SNB’s claim that it is willing to do
whatever it takes to hold EUR/CHF 1.20. For the floor to be credible the SNB needs to surrender control over the
Swiss monetary based, i.e. it has to be willing to deliver both unlimited and unsterilised
FX intervention. The intervention in May was certainly unlimited; it most
definitely was not unsterilised.
Google Wants to Make You a Power User – Tech News
Google is offering you a chance to step up your
search game. The company said it will provide a series of six courses in July
to turn the average Google user into a power user. The free 50-minute classes
can be taken during a two-week window beginning July 10.