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Thursday, July 5

5th Jul - EU Open: Show me the money

After the US holiday, we're back for a "miniweek" packed with the usual excitement - will the ECB shoot first and ask questions later? Will the US employment figures surprise, and to what direction? Couple of interesting links this morning: I recommend the highlighted chart book from BoAML for the weekend.

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Press digests by Reuters: FT, WSJ, NYT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Market Preview: ECB and BoE meetings to drive mktsSaxo Bank
Central banks will no doubt drive equity markets Thursday given there are rate announcements from both the BOE and ECB. There will be a slightly negative start for indices given the event risk. Also, keep an eye on the Spanish long-term debt auction.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
With US markets closed for Independence Day yesterday there have been only modest market movements since market close in Europe. The sentiment in the stock market is moderately negative ahead of today’s ECB meeting and the important labour market report in the US tomorrow. Asian stock markets are slightly lower this morning.

Morning Briefing: Summer Days, Drifting AwayBNY Mellon
Greece still remains a factor over the summer months

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 EURO CRISIS
Europe’s crisis is re-emergingMacroBusiness
EU summit provided Europe with some political success but actual deliverables are some time off… In the meantime the implementation of austerity policy across the periphery, and now France it seems, continues to lead to a slowing economy across the monetary union.

Lowballing German growthA Fistful of Euros
The most striking thing, at least for those who don’t follow the German real economy closely, is the estimate of the economy’s potential growth rate: 1.25%.

The Crises of SummerProject Syndicate
What has produced the populist backlash is the spectacle of political authorities devising technically complicated solutions that lack credibility. Simply put, the experts need to stop treating Europe’s citizens as if they were stupid.

EURO CRISIS: ECB
Will ECB come to post-summit party?MacroScope / Reuters

ECB may surprise and do nothing; BOE will extend QESaxo Bank

ECB's balance sheet hits €3.1 trillion; nearly half the assets are loans to banks Sober Look
Nice “before and after” charts

ECB preview: Time for ECB to deliver rate cutDanske Bank (pdf)

OTHER
The Ultimate History-Of-Markets Chartbook ZH
Bank of
America / Merril Lynch’s 102-page giant (full pdf here)
 
Is The Equity Market Topping?The Short Side of The Long
Narrowing breadth speaks of an equity market top - Narrow trading range for Long Bond Treasury prices - Silver finds itself at a major technical decision point

The Fed and LIBORTF Market Advisors
The Fed does everything it can to keep Libor low

RCS Investments Macro Outlook (Mid-2012)RCS
 
‘Not on my watch’: applies to banks and the navyJohn Kay
It happened on my watch. John draws lessons from the navy, and the management and regulation of casinos, for the banking sector.

BizDaily: The end of Libor?BBC (mp3)
Market rigging isn't the only problem with Libor. We speak to the man who led the Barclay's investigation on the problems with how the Libor rate is set. Plus, Barclay's bank hasn't only come in for criticism about its attempt to rig interest rates. It also came under fire from the British government for its plans to offer a very aggressive tax avoidance schemes which it subsequently decided to withdraw.

Nobody in their right mind would consider joing the EU – Swiss MinisterKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
Markets & news roundup and commentary.