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Tuesday, January 14

14th Jan - Everything seems like a nail

Just saw the Wolf of Wall Street - it's "Fear and Loathing", not Wall Street. Why not see this one instead?

Andrew Lo
MIT 15.401 Finance Theory I, Fall 2008
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Worrying predictions for Eurozone living standardsThe World / FT
Here is a startling prediction from the European Commission. In the absence of comprehensive economic reforms, living standards in the eurozone, relative to the US, will be lower in 2023 than they were in the mid-1960s.

Focus: The recovery has to change gearBNP
Confidence and conditions in the debt markets have improved recently * Yet, the pace of the recovery risks to remain weak and needs to be strengthened * As the need for consolidation of public finances constrained fiscal policy, the support has to come from the monetary policy

European Parliament elections are no longer second-order national contests – they are essential for determining the future direction of the EUEuropp / LSE

First steps for banking union
The European Banking Union matures in 2014, with the ECB assuming its role as single supervisor. This column outlines the transition to the new steady state. This will involve a comprehensive balance sheet assessment, new rules regarding recapitalisation, restructuring, and resolution, and the determination of how recapitalisation costs are distributed across taxpayers in different European nations.

ECB Sees Bad-Debt Rules as Threat to Credible Bank ReviewBB
ECB is concerned that national differences in how bad debt is classified could cripple its probe into the health of euro-area banks, according to an internal ECB document.

Europeans Struggle to Set Derivatives RulesDealBook / NYT
Faced with intense lobbying from the oil and commodity industries, the European Union plans what could be a last-ditch effort on Tuesday to reach agreement on one of the biggest issues to come out of the 2008 financial crisis: how to rein in trading of derivatives and other complex instruments.

Italy’s Outlook Brightens. But For How Long?WSJ

France, is the recovery likely to last beyond season’s greetings?BNP

U.K. Inflation Plays Ball At Long Last – WSJ
U.K. Inflation Slows to BOE Target for 1st Time Since ’09 – BB
The Disinflationary Legacy of Weak Global Consumer Demand – WSJ
Greek Deflation Continues For 10th Straight Month – ZH
EZ output rebounds in Nov, adds to signs of economic recovery – Reuters

The Next Two Weeks In EarningsBespoke

Goldman Downgrades US Equities To "Underweight", Sees Risk Of 10% DrawdownZH

Fed’s Lockhart: Taper Will Continue if Recovery ContinuesWSJ

Lockhart Greenlights TaperingTim Duy’s Fed Watch
But that's not really the big story at this point.  The big story is the communications strategy.  The era of transparency has arguably delivered only more complicated and confusing targets, thresholds, and statements.  With the Evans rule turning into a pumpkin soon, they will need to decide if they want to double-down on this strategy or move onto something else.  But what is that something else?  Whatever it is, it must be near the top of incoming Chair Janet Yellen's to-do list.

The week in the United States Tapering, a few explanations…BNP

Fed’s Plosser: Weak December Jobs Data Shouldn’t Affect Taper – WSJ
Fed’s Fisher: Glad Fed Tapered, but First Cut Should Have Been Bigger – WSJ
Fed's Fisher Says "Investors Have Beer Goggles From Liquidity" – ZH

US federal budget deficit on track for best year in five yearsTradingFloor
A growing economy and declining public sector spending have seen the federal deficit shrink to its lowest level in five years, and further improvement is expected in the next couple of years. In the longer-term, however, problems still loom.

Bye Bye, Budget DeficitEvan Soltas
We've cut the budget deficit by half since last year. It is shrinking nearly as fast as it grew as crisis broke out in 2008. Just think about that.

Small Business Sentiment: ’No Sign of Real Recovery" – dshort

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Index increases in December – Calculated Risk
NFIB Small Business Optimism Rises – Bespoke

Retail Sales increased 0.2% in December – Calculated Risk
Dec Retail Sales Beat Due To Nov Revision Lower, Electronics Sales Tumble – ZH

Retail sales increased despite the weather – Danske Bank
Retailers See Sales and Inventories Rise in Fourth Quarter – WSJ
Where Did Consumer Spend Their Money in December? – WSJ
Retail Sales Up A Mild 0.2% In December – The Capital Spectator
Escape Velocity? Not Yet – WSJ

Consumer spending measure rises solidly – Reuters

Chinese Stocks to Trail World for Fifth Year: Chart of the DayBB


India inflation: vegtables off the boil – FT

Japan Current-Account Gap Widens to Record on Weaker YenBB
Japan No Longer an Export PowerhouseWSJ
Weakness in the yen and extra demand for energy because of nuclear-plant shutdowns are driving up Japan’s import bill, highlighting drags on the recovery that will also include a sales-tax increase in April. A longer-term risk for the nation is any shift to a sustained deficit that would undermine investor confidence in Japanese government debt.

Investment: Dollar disruptionsFT
Now that the US is haltingly climbing out of its economic morass and the Fed is beginning to unwind its monetary stimulus programme, strategists and investors are predicting another golden age for the US dollar… Previous periods of dollar strength have been accompanied by crises in emerging markets.

Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?IMF
A permanent fiscal adjustment may reduce appreciation pressures over the long term. Furthermore, the composition of public spending matters, with reductions in current spending playing a key role.

EM Debt Risk: The Devil Is in the DetailPragCap
Investors in US dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging-market (EM) corporates are worried that the greenback’s rise, together with a broad decline in EM currencies, could increase the risk of defaults on their holdings. How worried should they be?

Cold water on rosy projections of faster recovery in Europe and the US.

A Requiem for Global ImbalancesBarry Eichengreen / Project Syndicate
The start of 2014 marks ten years since we began fretting about global imbalances, and specifically about the chronic trade and current-account imbalances of the United States and China. A decade later, we can happily declare that the era of global imbalances is over.

Yksi maa Euroopassa on sekä energiaparatiisi että energiahelvetti - mikä maa?TE

Eläkematematiikka on vaikeaaAkateeminen talousblogi

Kohta joka kolmas työssäkäyvä hoivaa läheistäänVerkkouutiset

Katainen ideapajan jälkeen: Meillä on liian kielteinen ilmapiiriYLE
Suomen kielteinen ilmapiiri nousi esiin hallituksen ideapajassa. Hallitus etsi aivoriihessään koko päivän keinoja Suomen menestymiseen.

Mitä kuuluu Suomen kukkarolle?YLE
Millainen oli talouden vuosi 2013? Entä näkymät alkaneelle vuodelle? Keskustelemassa ekonomisti Janne Huovari Pellervon taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta, tutkimusjohtaja Markku Kotilainen Elinkeinoelämän tutkimuslaitoksesta ja erikoistutkija Pekka Sauramo Palkansaajien taloudellisesta tutkimuslaitoksesta.

EU ja muutosten vuosiBrysselin kone / YLE
Alkavana vuonna valta vaihtuu paitsi parlamentissa, niin myös komissiossa. Mutta paljonko EU:n politiikka muuttuu äänestystulosten perusteella? Mikä vaikutus äänestäjiin tulee olemaan talouskriisillä ja sen esiin nostama keskustelulla EU:n harjoittamasta talouskurista, maiden keskinäisen solidaarisuuden tarpeesta ja euron ongelmista?

Huoli heräsi: Militantti anti-fasistinen liike kasvamassa SuomessaTE
Sisäministeriön valtiosihteeri Andrei Nahkala on huolissaan ekstremismin mahdollisesta lisääntymisestä tulevaisuudessa.

Vaarallisia kuvia isänmaasta – Tikkakoski on Googlen kartoissa pimeä vyöhykeHS
Ilmakuvaamista sensuroitiin vielä 1980-luvun Suomessa tarmokkaasti. Sille voi nyt nauraa. Mutta miksi Tikkakosken sotilasalueiden päällä on Googlen kartoissa tummennus?

MOT: Edunvalvonnan armoillaYLE

Siirtolaiset huijaavat tukia? – EU-komissiolta opaskirja torjuntaanVerkkouutiset
Jäsenmaa voi karkottaa EU-kansalaisen, jos tämä aiheuttaa "perusteettoman taakan".

IL: näin ulkomaalainen saa Suomessa laittomasti tukiaVerkkouutiset
Helsingin sosiaaliviraston johtajan mukaan ulkomaalaisten toimeentulotuesta "saattaa jäädä talonpoikaisjärjellä miettimään, että onko tässä kaikki kohdallaan".

Rakennusyritysten liikevaihto kasvoi elo-lokak. vajaan prosentin YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelualojen liikevaihto kasvoi elo-lokak.0,4% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Inflaatio kiihtyi joulukuussa 1,6 prosenttiin – Tilastokeskus