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Thursday, January 30

30th Jan - Post-FOMC USD strength

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Denmark: Government in crisis, but no change in policy is likelyDanske Bank

9 questions about Ukraine you were too embarrassed to ask WaPo

What Does Europe’s ‘No Prop Trading’ Plan Mean?WSJ

Europe’s Banking Risk Plan Is a Long ShotNYT
EU revealed a long-awaited proposal to reduce the systemic risk posed by big banks like the Volcker Rule in the United States, but it may be a long time before the European Parliament considers it.

Europe's New Volcker Rule Enrages Everyone EquallyView / BB

The long lost Liikanen report returns – but it looks pretty different Open Europe

Euro zone morale climbs as recovery strengthens – Reuters
European sentiment: it's getting better – TradingFloor
German Joblessness Fell More Than Forecast in January – BB

HY bond market weathering the stormSober Look
Experienced analysis and investors in this space openly admit that it's just a "matter of time" before this market "cracks". It simply needs a catalyst, such as a large unexpected corporate default. Maybe a major event in the sovereign bond market could dislodge HY.

How Were Fed Forecasts? Too High, Too Low and Just RightWSJ
In December 2012, Federal Reserve officials predicted where GDP, unemployment and inflation would be in 2013. Here’s a report card on how the Fed did in its predictions.

Timeline: Fed's Bernanke saw U.S. economy through turbulent timesReuters

Good GDP, Soft Deflator – Marc to Market
Q4 GDP Declines To 3.2% As Expected; Final 2013 GDP 1.9%, Down From 2.8% In 2012 – ZH
GDP Q4 Advance Estimate: A Solid 3.2% - dshort
Real GDP Per Capita: Another Perspective on the Economy – dshort
5 Takeaways From the GDP Report – WSJ
Economists React: Fourth Quarter GDP ‘Pretty Impressive’ – WSJ
US GDP: Households decisive as federal spending plummets – TradingFloor
Q4 GDP 3.2%, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 348,000 – Calculated Risk
Q4 GDP: Solid Report, Positives Looking Forward – Calculated Risk
Visualizing GDP: The Consumer Helped Balance Inventories – dshort
Households, trade keep U.S. economy humming in fourth quarter – Reuters

Asia enters an age of increasing uncertaintyThe A-list / FT

EM turmoil: It ain’t over till the Chinese lady singsDanske Bank

Calm Broken in Markets Amid Concerns of Emerging ContagionBB

Emerging Markets - Emerging Crisis or Media Hysteria?dshort

Record Cash Leaves Emerging Market ETFs on Lira DropBB
More than $7 billion flowed from ETFs investing in developing-nation assets in January, the most since the securities were created,

Goldman Sachs: Here’s a History Lesson of Emerging-Market PullbacksWSJ

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank
The tightening of monetary conditions to prop up the EM currencies will potentially have very significant negative effects on EM growth in general.

Devaluation stations: Et tu China?alphaville / FT

Following Failed Turkish Central Bank Intervention, Verbal Diarrhea FollowsZH

Capital controls not on agenda in Turkey: senior government officialReuters
Turkey is not considering any sort of capital controls as it battles to defend the lira, a senior government official said on Thursday, after Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said an "out of the ordinary" economic package could be announced soon.

Another look at EM flowsalphaville / FT

Rajan Warns of Policy Breakdown as Emerging Markets FallBB
India’s central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan (former IMF chief economist) warned of a breakdown in global policy coordination after the Federal Reserve further cut stimulus, weakening emerging-market currencies from the rupee to the Turkish lira.

Steen Jakobsen: Russia a catalyst for EM and global troublesTradingFloor
EM crisis unlikely to go away * Devaluation worries gather momentum * Hike in interest rates a disease

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI – Markit
The Carnage Continues In Asia As China PMI Confirms Contraction Deepening – ZH
China Manufacturing Back in Contraction – Mish’s
PMI dips to six-month low in January as new orders weaken – Reuters

Commodities UpdateDanske Bank
Commodity markets ignore further Fed tapering

YTD Change in Sovereign Default RiskBespoke

Talouspolitiikan arviointineuvosto perustettu Akateeminen talousblogi

Talousviisaat: Sopeutustarve 0 – 1,5 miljardia euroa ensi vuonna – Verkkouutiset
Valtiovarainministeri Jutta Urpilaisen (sd.) johdolla torstaina järjestettyyn talousfoorumiin osallistuneiden talousviisaiden mukaan valtiontalouden lisäsopeutuksen tarve ensi vuonna on 0 – 1,5 miljardia euroa.

Kommentti: Jutta U. piti seminaarin – hellurei , velat seuraavan hallituksen niskaan!MTV
Urpilainen (sd.) piti seminaarin, joka oli kuin tilaustyö: säästöjen ja velkaantumisen lopettamisen kanssa ei pidä hoppuilla, joutaapa seuraavakin hallitus ne hoidella.

Tilanne ja näkymät 1/2014Teknologiateollisuus
Teknologiateollisuuden liikevaihto jäi Suomessa viime vuonna pienemmäksi kuin vuonna 2012. Tarjouspyyntöjen kasvu antaa heikkoja signaaleja paremmasta. Teknologiateollisuuden yrityksissä ollaan varovaisen toiveikkaita siitä, että pohjakosketus olisi takana.

Turha Turkin koronnostoHenri Myllyniemi / US

Olli Rehn eurokriisin hoidosta: "Itsekritiikkiin on syytä"TalSa
Talouskomissaari Olli Rehn myöntää, että eurokriisin sammuttamisessa on tehty virheitä. Hän ei kuitenkaan sulata akatemiaprofessori Kaarlo Tuorin kritiikkiä demokratiavajeesta ja sosiaalisten oikeuksien polkemisesta.

Kipua ja hävitystäMorningstar
Kehittyvien maiden kurssipudotus on tuntuva, muttei vielä lähelläkään finanssikriisin kaltaista rysähdystä.