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Saturday, January 18

18th Jan - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Friday Close

Market Prices – Global Macro Monitor

Treasury Yields Tumble To 2-Month Lows; Dow/S&P Still Red In 2014 – ZH

Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture



Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg

China GDP: solid but slightly lower growth in Q4 * UK: BoE minutes with guidance debate, another drop in unemployment * France PMI: brighter mood after Hollande’s reforms?

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week's Agenda and Wrap UpHandelsbanken

Wall Street Week Ahead Reuters

Stocks may be vulnerable in earnings blitz

5 Things to Watch on Economic Calendar WSJ

China growth, home sales and factory activity will be in focus during a week with little data on tap.

What Matters in the Week Ahead for Global Markets WSJ
The most important macroeconomic data and policy news events in the forthcoming week:

Europe’s Week Ahead: Fed Tapering Decision Key – WSJ

Weighing the Week Ahead: More “Experts” Predicting a Market TopA Dash of Insight

The continuing attention to earnings reports will split attention this week with the ongoing debate over valuation and a potential bubble in stocks. Any earnings stumble will be portrayed as evidence.

Kalenteri Viikko 4Nordea

Key events in the week ahead by Goldman Sachs – ZH


Weekly Focus: Recovery but also pressure for lower rates in EuropeDanske Bank

Eurozone PMI may struggle to climb higher but already indicates decent growth. We expect consumer confidence to continue to rise. A lot of important data is due out in China – not least GDP growth for Q4 and the first PMI numbers for January. In contrast, US data is thin on the ground, with Markit PMI and home sales being the most interesting. Japan’s central bank is set to meet but there is little prospect of any change to monetary policy. In Sweden, employment and jobless numbers are due.

Week AheadNordea

Euro area: Preliminary PMIs (Friday) are on top of the agenda in Europe. We expect a slight increase to 52.5 from 52.1, adding to the signs of recovery, driven both by manufacturing and services. Besides that, we expect an increase in the German ZEW. Sweden: Unemployment has levelled out around 8% in recent months. For December, we expect unemployment to edge down to 7.9% but largely to remain on the sideways trend. UK: Minutes of the January MPC meeting at the Bank of England will be the highlight of the week. Since November, the MPC seems to have taken a more neutral bias, but speculations about a more hawkish turn may gradually build up the coming months. US: Only tier-2 data on the agenda in the US next week. We don’t see any significant market movements caused by this data.

Strategy: Market questions ECB's ability to deliver 2% inflationDanske Bank

Bond markets price very low euro inflation for a long time - too long.

Scandi markets aheadDanske Bank
Divergent rates and inflation outlook for Norway and Sweden add support to NOK/SEK

Viikkokatsaus: Kiina avaa BKT-lukujen kaudenNordea
Viime viikon antia: Vähittäiskauppa oli odotettua vahvempaa Yhdysvalloissa. Euroalueen teollisuustuotanto korjasi aikaisemman pudotuksensa. Tulevaa: Alustavia PMI-lukuja. Kiinan BKT Q4:ltä avaa pelin


Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank

Supportive start to the year for credit. 2014 credit strategy: 'A recovery to carry us'. Nordea gets approval for IRB model in the Nordic region by the four Nordic FSAs

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank

Over the past month, incoming data has continued to support our view of a strengthening of the European recovery. Despite a dovish ECB and a cut by the Riksbank, long-end rates have moved slightly higher in both Europe and Sweden. In the US, the decision by the Fed to taper the QE programme had only limited impact on long-end rates. However, as there seems to be limited willingness to strengthen the forward guidance, US money market rates have moved higher.

Rates: What is UnwarrantedNordea

Short EUR rates are on the rise once again, only unlike the December movements, there’s nothing obvious in the calendar to reverse it. Things are looking squeeze-like. A reversal is likely though, one way or the other. In this note we look into how this could/should happen.

FI Eye-Opener: Focus on short EUR rates and the ECBNordea


FX Outlook: Dollar powers aheadMarc toMarket
The US dollar finished last week well bid. It is at six week highs against the euro. It recovered from the brief dip at the start of the week below JPY103 and finished the week above JPY104.00. The Australian dollar fell to new multi-year lows, as did the Canadian dollar. Most emerging market currencies also fell.The notable exception to this general pattern was sterling.

FX Forecast Update Danske Bank

Low inflation set to weigh on EUR


EMEA Weekly: Turks to hike, Hungarians to cut Danske Bank

Emerging Markets Briefer: January 2014Danske Bank

Two very different headaches – deflation and external imbalance

EM Preview: The Week AheadMarc to Market

EM Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT


Commodities 2014Danske Bank
Five themes to drive the markets this year: geopolitical risks abating, oil glut could be in the offing, recovery in investment good news for base metals, mounting grain supplies, backwardation returns


Economic Calendar –

Economic Calendar – BB

EU calendar –



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