W/E: Weekly Support (updated!)
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EUROPE
Ifo says German
current account surplus hits new record high – Reuters
Germany's world-beating current account surplus most likely hit a new
record in 2013 of about $260 billion as much of its earnings from exported
goods was invested abroad rather than spent at home, the Ifo think tank said on
Tuesday.
EU
Lawmakers Seal Deal on Financial Market Rules Overhaul – BB
The bill includes
curbs on high-frequency trading and commodity-derivative speculation, as well
as measures to push more activity onto regulated platforms.
Hitting the target – Long
Short / FT
The Bank of England has hit the target at last. UK inflation is at 2
per cent, bang in line with the Bank’s target, for the first time since the end
of 2009.
2014 Financial
Odyssey – Bruegel
http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1226-2014-financial-odyssey/
A one-way bet for
eurozone equities – Humble
Student
CRISIS COUNTRIES
Spanish Lending Rates
Soar To Highest Since 2008 – ZH
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
A little more detail
on the ECB’s stress tests – Money
Supply / FT
ECB to simplify
European bad loan definition in health check – Reuters
The ECB is set to allow the euro zone's top banks to meet less stringent definitions
for bad loans than previously planned when it makes an unprecedented review of
lenders' balance sheets this year.
ECB Eases Stress
Test: Capital Ratio Requirement From 8% to 6% - ZH
ECB Said to Favor 6%
Capital Requirement in Stress Test – BB
How serious is the
risk of deflation in the euro zone? – The
Economist
UNITED STATES
Larry Summers on why
the economy is broken -- and how to fix it – WaPo
The economy, even in the seemingly good times, has been incapable of
creating enough demand absent bubbles or extraordinary stimulus. And that
problem is getting worse by the day. In this interview, Summers lays out his
concerns in more detail -- and suggests three paths we might take to restoring
economic balance.
FEDERAL RESERVE
The Fed preparing
markets for the reverse repo facility (FRFA) – Sober
Look
Interest rates don't
matter? Federal Reserve paper says so – CNBC
A new working paper by two Federal Reserve economists finds that
business leaders don't think that interest rates matter very much, all other
things being equal.
The updated FOMC
dove-hawk spectrum – alphaville
/ FT
The new spectrum applies after the January 28-29 meeting, Bernanke’s
last as chair.
Why the world
shouldn’t fear the taper – WaPo
Beer goggles,
monetary camels, the eye of the needle and the first law of holes – BIS
Richard W Fisher, President and CEO of the Fed Dallas, 14 January 2014.
Perspectives on the
economy and monetary policy – BIS
Charles I Plosser, President and CEO of the Fed Philadelphia, 14 January 2014.
ASIA
Fiscal
Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China – IMF
The results also show that the augmented fiscal deficit and debt are
both considerably higher than the headline government data suggest.
Nonetheless, at around 45 percent of GDP, the augmented debt is still at a
manageable level.
OTHER
The Average Hedge
Fund These Days Is Basically An Overpriced Index Fund – BI
Credit strategists
are… bearullish, we guess – alphaville
/ FT
Our broad US outlook for 2014 is
that it represents an inversion of the situation from the start of last year:
while the conditions for economic growth in the US now seem better than
they were then, the prospects for debt and equity markets are much more
complicated.
Yield Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Over the past month, incoming data has continued to support our view of
a strengthening of the European recovery. Despite a dovish ECB and a cut by the
Riksbank, long-end rates have moved slightly higher in both Europe and Sweden. In the US, the decision by the
Fed to taper the QE programme had only limited impact on long-end rates.
However, as there seems to be limited willingness to strengthen the forward
guidance, US money market rates have moved higher.
FX Forecast Update – Danske
Bank
Low inflation set to weigh on EUR
Surprising Consensus
On Cross Asset Research – The
Big Picture
361 Capital Weekly
Research Briefing – The
Reformed Broker
The Financial Fire
Next Time – Robert
J. Shiller / Project Syndicate
Just as most people
are more interested in stories about fires than they are in the chemistry of
fire retardants, they are more interested in stories about financial crashes
than they are in the measures needed to prevent them. That is not exactly a
recipe for a happy ending.
Developing economies
need robust blueprints to sustain growth – World
Bank
Global Economic Prospects Jan 2014: Advanced economies are turning the
corner * Developing countries regain strength after two weak years * US taper
could throw curve balls, as global economy strengthens
World Bank Raises
Growth Forecasts as Richest Nations Strengthen – BB
The World Bank raised its global growth forecasts as the easing of
austerity policies in advanced economies supports their recovery, boosting
prospects for developing markets’ exports.
Fiscal and monetary
policy are not alternatives – Money
Illusion
FINNISH
EU-kriittiset yrittävät vallankahvaan
unionissa – YLE
Euroopan
parlamentin ryhmät suuntaavat jo katseensa EU-vaalien jälkeiseen aikaan.
Poliittisen kentän oikeanpuoliselta laidalta ponnistavat ryhmät tavoittelevat
lisää valtaa keskinäisen yhteistyön kautta. Yle Uutiset kävi läpi
EU-kriittisten edustajien vaikutusvallasta kertovia tilastoja.
Rehn varoittaa eurokriittisten puolueiden noususta.
Soini tyrmää arvostelun
– YLE
Talouskomissaari
Olli Rehnin mukaan eurokriittisten puolueiden vaalivoitto vaikeuttaisi EU:n
päätöksentekoa. Perussuomalaisten Timo Soini pitää kritiikkiä
"EU-eliitin" puheena. Vaikeuttavatko eurokriittiset tahot EU:n
päätöksentekoa?
"Veroetu pois ammattiliittojen
jäseniltä" – MTV
Kansantaloustieteen
professori Vesa Kanniainen pitää Suomen kansantalouden tilannetta
huolestuttavana.
Mihin käytimme kasvuvuodet? – Henri
Myllyniemi / US
Tervetuloa Guggenheim, kuka maksaa? – Olli Herrala / KL
Puisesta Guggenheimista tulee vielä aikansa
rapistuva symboli: hyvä muistutus jälkipolville siitä, kuinka heikosti toimii
huonon itsetunnon ja heikon harkinnan yhdistelmä.
Suomeen
tarvittaisiin hieman lähdekritiikkiä, sillä erinäköiset edunvalvontajärestöt
saavat kohtuuttomasti palstatilaa ajatuksilleen, vaikka ne saattavat edustaa
marginaalia, ja ne varmasti edustavat mennyttä maailmaa, jonka varassa ei enää
luoda tulevaisuuden taloutta.
Tukkukauppa
painoi koko kaupan myynnin marraskuussa 3,6% laskuun YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden
liikevaihto supistui 2013 elo-lokak. n .
3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennuskustannukset
nousivat joulukuussa 0,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma
kasvoi syys-marraskuussa 1,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus