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Wednesday, January 15

15th Jan - ECB eases tests

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Trust in Europe paid handsomely!Money Matters

Ifo says German current account surplus hits new record highReuters
Germany's world-beating current account surplus most likely hit a new record in 2013 of about $260 billion as much of its earnings from exported goods was invested abroad rather than spent at home, the Ifo think tank said on Tuesday.

EU Lawmakers Seal Deal on Financial Market Rules OverhaulBB
The bill includes curbs on high-frequency trading and commodity-derivative speculation, as well as measures to push more activity onto regulated platforms.

Hitting the targetLong Short / FT
The Bank of England has hit the target at last. UK inflation is at 2 per cent, bang in line with the Bank’s target, for the first time since the end of 2009.

2014 Financial OdysseyBruegel

A one-way bet for eurozone equitiesHumble Student

Spanish Lending Rates Soar To Highest Since 2008ZH

A little more detail on the ECB’s stress testsMoney Supply / FT

ECB to simplify European bad loan definition in health checkReuters
The ECB is set to allow the euro zone's top banks to meet less stringent definitions for bad loans than previously planned when it makes an unprecedented review of lenders' balance sheets this year.

ECB Eases Stress Test: Capital Ratio Requirement From 8% to 6% - ZH
ECB Said to Favor 6% Capital Requirement in Stress TestBB

How serious is the risk of deflation in the euro zone?The Economist

What if Karlsruhe and the OMT just got along?alphaville / FT

Larry Summers on why the economy is broken -- and how to fix itWaPo
The economy, even in the seemingly good times, has been incapable of creating enough demand absent bubbles or extraordinary stimulus. And that problem is getting worse by the day. In this interview, Summers lays out his concerns in more detail -- and suggests three paths we might take to restoring economic balance.

The Fed preparing markets for the reverse repo facility (FRFA)Sober Look

Interest rates don't matter? Federal Reserve paper says soCNBC
A new working paper by two Federal Reserve economists finds that business leaders don't think that interest rates matter very much, all other things being equal.

The updated FOMC dove-hawk spectrumalphaville / FT
The new spectrum applies after the January 28-29 meeting, Bernanke’s last as chair.

Why the world shouldn’t fear the taperWaPo

Beer goggles, monetary camels, the eye of the needle and the first law of holesBIS
Richard W Fisher, President and CEO of the Fed Dallas, 14 January 2014.

Perspectives on the economy and monetary policyBIS
Charles I Plosser, President and CEO of the Fed Philadelphia, 14 January 2014.

Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in ChinaIMF
The results also show that the augmented fiscal deficit and debt are both considerably higher than the headline government data suggest. Nonetheless, at around 45 percent of GDP, the augmented debt is still at a manageable level.

The Average Hedge Fund These Days Is Basically An Overpriced Index FundBI

Credit strategists are… bearullish, we guessalphaville / FT
Our broad US outlook for 2014 is that it represents an inversion of the situation from the start of last year: while the conditions for economic growth in the US now seem better than they were then, the prospects for debt and equity markets are much more complicated.

Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Over the past month, incoming data has continued to support our view of a strengthening of the European recovery. Despite a dovish ECB and a cut by the Riksbank, long-end rates have moved slightly higher in both Europe and Sweden. In the US, the decision by the Fed to taper the QE programme had only limited impact on long-end rates. However, as there seems to be limited willingness to strengthen the forward guidance, US money market rates have moved higher.

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Low inflation set to weigh on EUR

Surprising Consensus On Cross Asset ResearchThe Big Picture

361 Capital Weekly Research BriefingThe Reformed Broker

The Financial Fire Next TimeRobert J. Shiller / Project Syndicate
Just as most people are more interested in stories about fires than they are in the chemistry of fire retardants, they are more interested in stories about financial crashes than they are in the measures needed to prevent them. That is not exactly a recipe for a happy ending.

Developing economies need robust blueprints to sustain growthWorld Bank
Global Economic Prospects Jan 2014: Advanced economies are turning the corner * Developing countries regain strength after two weak years * US taper could throw curve balls, as global economy strengthens

World Bank Raises Growth Forecasts as Richest Nations StrengthenBB
The World Bank raised its global growth forecasts as the easing of austerity policies in advanced economies supports their recovery, boosting prospects for developing markets’ exports.

Fiscal and monetary policy are not alternativesMoney Illusion

EU-kriittiset yrittävät vallankahvaan unionissaYLE
Euroopan parlamentin ryhmät suuntaavat jo katseensa EU-vaalien jälkeiseen aikaan. Poliittisen kentän oikeanpuoliselta laidalta ponnistavat ryhmät tavoittelevat lisää valtaa keskinäisen yhteistyön kautta. Yle Uutiset kävi läpi EU-kriittisten edustajien vaikutusvallasta kertovia tilastoja.

Rehn varoittaa eurokriittisten puolueiden noususta. Soini tyrmää arvostelunYLE
Talouskomissaari Olli Rehnin mukaan eurokriittisten puolueiden vaalivoitto vaikeuttaisi EU:n päätöksentekoa. Perussuomalaisten Timo Soini pitää kritiikkiä "EU-eliitin" puheena. Vaikeuttavatko eurokriittiset tahot EU:n päätöksentekoa?

"Veroetu pois ammattiliittojen jäseniltä"MTV
Kansantaloustieteen professori Vesa Kanniainen pitää Suomen kansantalouden tilannetta huolestuttavana.

Mihin käytimme kasvuvuodet?Henri Myllyniemi / US

Tervetuloa Guggenheim, kuka maksaa?Olli Herrala / KL
Puisesta Guggenheimista tulee vielä aikansa rapistuva symboli: hyvä muistutus jälkipolville siitä, kuinka heikosti toimii huonon itsetunnon ja heikon harkinnan yhdistelmä.

Ceaușescu ja suomalainen bisnesHannu Visti
Suomeen tarvittaisiin hieman lähdekritiikkiä, sillä erinäköiset edunvalvontajärestöt saavat kohtuuttomasti palstatilaa ajatuksilleen, vaikka ne saattavat edustaa marginaalia, ja ne varmasti edustavat mennyttä maailmaa, jonka varassa ei enää luoda tulevaisuuden taloutta.

Tukkukauppa painoi koko kaupan myynnin marraskuussa 3,6% laskuun YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto supistui 2013 elo-lokak.  n . 3% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Rakennuskustannukset nousivat joulukuussa 0,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma kasvoi syys-marraskuussa 1,5% YoY – Tilastokeskus