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Sunday, January 19

19th Jan - W/E: Linkfest

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round up 11 – 17 JanuaryEuropp / LSE
EU reform, voting rights, and is the PP-PSOE era nearing its end in Spain?

Remorseless troikaseuobserver
Blame somebody else. Speak of one’s own impeccable activities. And don’t apologise. And that’s rather the ugly beauty of this whole eurozone bailout set up.

'I'm in politics to seek solutions, not to block things'euobserver
Debating how to increase the role of national parliaments in EU law making is far from being a new subject, nor is it one to set the pulse racing

A view from London: Desperately seeking EU reformeuobserver
The big headline from Osborne was his threat that Britain will leave the EU if it does not reform.

Green Fade-Out: Europe to Ditch Climate Protection GoalsSpiegel
The EU's reputation as a model of environmental responsibility may soon be history. The European Commission wants to forgo ambitious climate protection goals and pave the way for fracking -- jeopardizing Germany's touted energy revolution in the process.

Greece Will Default in May Without Another Bailout or Change in TermsMish’s

France: Exiting the crisisBNP
The crisis is winding down, but it has taken its toll on the French economy. Efforts will have to be taken to rebuild capacity.

Great Graphic: Eurosystem's Excess LiquidityMarc to Market
Both China and the euro area are currently experiencing liquidity squeezes… In part, what is happening is the decline in excess liquidity in the euro area. It was the excess liquidity that kept the EONIA near the floor of the ECB's rate corridor.

Is the ECB making “rookie mistakes?”The Money Illusion
They are running years behind the Fed in figuring out how to do things…the ECB doesn’t seem to realize that the only way for the eurozone as a whole to become more “competitive” is to raise the inflation rate.

How the ECB could be radical by being old fashionedMainly Macro
Forward commitment could be sold not as a radical new policy, but a return to a very old one: money targeting. The one major central bank that did maintain a money targeting policy for more than a few years was the Bundesbank.

Lacker Expects Fed to Study More Bond ReductionsWSJ
Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, who is skeptical of bond buying, wants to see them dialed down further.

How bank reserves make the gap between deposits and loans disappearSober Look
QE, which is directly responsible for the $2.4 trillion in excess reserves, was not helpful (and possibly harmful) to credit growth in the US.

Japan - The wage growth vs inflation conundrumMacronomics
Will a potentially squeezed middle-class still show much love for the "Abe show" will be left if the wage growth/inflation spreads widens substantially post VAT-hike?

Will China's Shadow Banking Craze Slow Down?BB
There are two ways governments can try to prevent crises: They can guarantee the nominal value of every asset believed to be "safe," or they can try to set investors straight. The Chinese government is maybe experimenting with the latter.

Thailand’s “Godfather IV”Project Syndicate
In today’s Bangkok – racked by power struggles and lawlessness – Mario Puzo would have found rich material for a sequel to his classic book The Godfather.

Currencies of natural resource exporters under pressureSober Look

S&P 500 Analyst Ratings By SectorBespoke
Sector performance is well correlated with increases in Sell ratings. Four of the five worst performing sectors had the biggest increases in Sell ratings.

Sovereign-debt markets: Following a new scriptThe Economist
Bonds are unexpectedly popular so far

Citi: "Time For Yields To Correct Lower"ZH
As the Fed’s stimulus program appears to have “peaked” Citi warned investors yesterday to be cautious with the Equity markets; and recent price action across the Treasury curve suggests lower yields can be seen and US 10 year yields are in danger of retesting the 2.40% area.

Insights: The secular bond bull market will not returnNordea
Some economists, including Larry Summers who fears secular stagnation, are still very pessimistic regarding the US economic outlook due to what they see as structural constraints on the demand and/or the supply side of the economy. In this analysis we look deeper into these gloomy views and argue why we disagree and how we see the longer-term outlook for US interest rates.

The world economy regains its old footing in 2014BNP
World growth should accelerate mildly to 3.5% in 2014 after dropping to 2.9% in 2013, the slowest pace since 2009. More evenly distributed, growth will no longer depend so heavily on the emerging countries and more on “Old Europe”, notably the EMU, which has finally pulled out of recession. Inflation will remain low, and in the eurozone, it will hold well below the ECB’s 2% target. This gives the ECB more leeway to further increase its support for the economy via securities purchasing programmes, long-term lending or even one final key rate cut.

Macro Horizons: At Least the Advanced Economies Are Doing WellWSJ

Taming Bubbles is Hard, But Central Banks Can Try: Dallas Fed PaperWSJ
Can government officials pop an asset bubble by warning one is forming? A lot depends on timing and credibility.

Chief Economist's Corner: The Catch-22 of monetary policyNordea
Judging from almost all economic indicators 2013 ended on a stronger note – providing a good platform for the new year when the threats of recession should finally disappear from the horizon. Projections about the future are as always fraught with significant uncertainty. One of the key risks linked to forecasts for 2014 is monetary policy, which has been an important building block in the restoration of the world economy since the start of the big recession in 2008.

HSBC’s analysis of sovereign CDSSober Look
An interesting paper from HSBC on sovereign CDS. They used cluster analysis to show that correlations in CDS spreads are less about geographic proximity and more about related risk profiles of various nations. The researchers also show how the clustering changed over time.

Bank capital: A worrying wobbleThe Economist

Why economics gets a bad rapNoah Smith / The Week
Point your pitchforks at someone else, thanks

Debunking the Idea that “Structural Reforms” Reduce Unemploymentnaked capitalism

Getting LuckyOak Tree Capital

Pääkirjoitus: Tulojen ja menojen epäsuhta on ongelmaHS

Onko meppien tarkoituskaan tietää mitä tekevät?Sampo Terho

Antti Rinne: ”Ei kannatus ole yksin Jutan syy”TE

Suomen ekonomistit vaativat EKP:ltä lisää elvytystäTalSa
Suomalaisekonomistit ovat yksimielisiä siitä, että Euroopan keskuspankin (EKP) rahapolitiikan pitäisi olla nykyistä elvyttävämpää. Taloussanomien haastattelemista yhdeksästä ekonomistista kuusi ehdottaa EKP:lle Yhdysvaltain, Japanin ja Englannin keskuspankin tapaisia velkakirjaostoja, neljä negatiivista talletuskorkoa.

Liittoutuneet saavat yhä vahtia SaksaaTalSa
Ei ole ihme, ettei Saksa saanut amerikkalaisilta keskinäisen vakoilun kieltävää No-Spy-herrasmiessopimusta. Yhdysvalloilla on nimittäin yhä toisen maailmansodan peruina erikoisoikeuksia valvoa saksalaisia.

Tanskanen: Pankkialan ehdotus asuntojen lainakatosta hyväksyttävissäHS

Pankit pyörsivät kantansa: Asuntolainojen katto lähellä toteutumistaHS
Ministerin esikunnan mukaan "asia ratkeaa lähiaikoina".

Raju arvio RehnistäIL
EUobserver -lehden kolumnisti vertaa Olli Rehnin karismaa kynnysmattoon.

Seuraavaksi meitä väijyy deflaatio-mörköJan Hurri / TalSa
Inflaatio-peikko on ilkeä olento, mutta deflaatio-mörkö on vielä ilkeämpi. Näin pelottelevat EKP ja useimmat muutkin keskuspankit Suomen Pankista lähtien. Viime viikolla mörkövaroituksen esitti valuuttarahasto IMF. Mutta ehkä hintojen lasku ei sittenkään ole niin pelottavaa kuin mörkövaroitukset väittävät.

Turha syyttää euroaTalouden Tulkki

Vakaa valuutta vai vakaa talous – vakaa valuutta aiheuttaa talouden epävakauttaTyhmyri

HS selvitti: Suomalaisjohtajat keräävät palkkioita veroparatiiseistaHS
HS keräsi yli kaksi miljoonaa sivua Luxemburgin ja Sveitsin kaupparekisterien tietoja. Aineisto kertoo, miksi 2 200 suomalaista käyttää veroparatiiseja.

Veroparatiiseista ja verosuunnittelustaValtteri Aaltonen / US