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Tuesday, January 28

28th Jan - More on EM-trouble, Fed ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Schäuble, Lagarde Tiptoe Around Euro-Zone DifferencesWSJ
Germany's finance minister says "human beings are the problem" as he and the MF managing director debate jobs and growth in the euro zone.

A cobweb in the EurotowerMoney Matters

How the Bundesbank did not have ‘negative equity’ in the 1970sMacroexposure

ECB Faces Reshuffle as Draghi Picks Ally on Bank UnionBB
Draghi is about to decide which of his management team is tough enough to challenge politicians on Europe’s banking union project.

Data dumps and pig farms; Inside Europe's stress testsReuters
In his youth, Barrie Wilkinson studied how to stress test bridges. Now he is stress testing the euro zone's biggest banks.

Top bankers expect EU stress tests to reignite banking M&AReuters

The banks are OK, Spanish editionalphaville / FT
Credit Suisse has sufficient confidence to upgrade its views on some of the banks.

Italian Events Spinning Away from Letta and Alfano Government Marc to Market

German labour market reforms à la FrançaiseThe World / FT
The Elysée Palace denied reports that Mr Hartz, who led former chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s landmark reform programme, was acting as an adviser to Mr Hollande. But it acknowledged that the president had hosted the former Volkswagen executive for an hour-long informal meeting two months ago.

U.K. 4Q GDP Grows 0.7% to Cap Best Year Since 2007 – BB

Central Station: Emerging Slump Won’t Stop Fed Taper, YetWSJ
1) not clear that meltdowns in the Turkish lira or the Argentine peso or an economic slowdown in China are due to the Fed 2) not clear this selloff overseas is a problem for the U.S. economy or financial system 3) the Fed tries not to overreact to events

FOMC preview: More tapering to comeTradingFloor
Further USD 10 billion likely pencilled in for QE3 tapering * Current rate of tapering will see end to QE3 by December

Yellen Faces Test Bernanke Failed: Ease BubblesBB
Yellen probably will confront a test during her tenure as Federal Reserve chairman that both of her predecessors flunked: defusing asset bubbles without doing damage to the economy.

Will China stop taper?Macrobusiness
I expect the Fed to proceed for now but if China does not pour forth further stimulus then taper will get more difficult with each passing month.

A Look at Case-Shiller by Metro Area – WSJ
5 Things You Need to Know About Home Prices – WSJ
Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities – Calculated Risk
Home prices rise more than forecast in November – Reuters
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rise Most Since February 2006 – BB
Analysis: Not Really Any Positives in Durable-Goods Report – WSJ
December Durable Goods Report: A Massive Disappointment – dshort
Durable goods orders stumble, but consumers perk up – Reuters
Orders for U.S. Durable Goods Unexpectedly Slump – BB
Consumer Confidence Strengthens in January – dshort
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Climbs to a Five-Month High – BB

Monitor: Chinese Credit CrunchDanske Bank

Flash Comment: Mapping the EM sell-offDanske Bank
The dominant trigger is likely to have been worries about Chinese growth and the financial situation in China. However, local factors have also contributed to the ‘EM hurricane’. Overall, we can identify three characteristics of the sell-off. The hardest hit countries are those with large external imbalances (such as Turkey and South Africa), commodity exporting countries (like Brazil and Russia) and countries with rising domestic political/regime uncertainty (such as Ukraine and Turkey).

Don't panicThe Economist
current financial developments do not really resemble those in 1997-8, for several reasons. Exchange rates are more flexible now. Debt levels are far smaller, relative to reserves, than they were in the 1990s. And the crisis, if it amounts to that, is so far focused on economies that are experiencing acute political difficulties…Fed tightening cycles have consistently generated capital flow reversals over the past 30 years—the era of financial globalisation.

Crunch day for Turkey, and UkraineMacroScope / Reuters
Hard to look beyond Turkey today. The central bank will issue its quarterly inflation report and has called an emergency policy meeting thereafter and will deliver a verdict at midnight local time. All very cloak and dagger.

Will Selloff Push Emerging Market Central Banks to Raise Rates?WSJ

Turkey vs interest rates: why it mattersbeyondbrics / FT

These Are The Riskiest Emerging MarketsZH

Milloin asuntomarkkinoilla alkaa tapahtua?Tyhmyri

Töyssyjä Irlannin toipumiselle – vienti tökkiiTyhmyri

Verottaja selvitti: Virossa toimivilla suomalaisyrittäjillä reilusti verovelkaaTE

Miten mitata julkisen sektorin kokoaTieto & Trendit

Osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat joulukuussaTilastokeskus

Pula pienistä asunnoista pahenee pääkaupunkiseudullaHS