Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Schäuble, Lagarde Tiptoe Around Euro-Zone
Differences – WSJ
Germany's finance minister says "human beings are the problem" as he
and the MF managing director debate jobs and growth in the euro zone.
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
A cobweb in the Eurotower – Money
Matters
How the Bundesbank did not have ‘negative
equity’ in the 1970s – Macroexposure
Draghi is about to
decide which of his management team is tough enough to challenge politicians on
Europe’s banking union project.
In his youth, Barrie Wilkinson studied how to stress test bridges. Now
he is stress testing the euro zone's biggest banks.
Top bankers expect EU stress tests to reignite
banking M&A – Reuters
CRISIS
COUNTRIES
The banks are OK, Spanish edition – alphaville
/ FT
Credit Suisse has
sufficient confidence to upgrade its views on some of the banks.
Italian Events Spinning Away from Letta and
Alfano Government – Marc
to Market
German labour market reforms à la Française – The
World / FT
The Elysée Palace denied reports that Mr Hartz, who led former chancellor Gerhard
Schroeder’s landmark reform programme, was acting as an adviser to Mr Hollande.
But it acknowledged that the president had hosted the former Volkswagen
executive for an hour-long informal meeting two months ago.
MACRO
NUMBERS
U.K. 4Q GDP Grows 0.7% to Cap Best Year Since 2007 – BB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Central Station: Emerging Slump Won’t Stop Fed
Taper, Yet – WSJ
1) not clear that
meltdowns in the Turkish lira or the Argentine peso or an economic slowdown in China are due to the Fed 2) not clear this selloff
overseas is a problem for the U.S. economy or financial system 3) the Fed tries
not to overreact to events
FOMC preview: More tapering to come – TradingFloor
Further USD 10 billion
likely pencilled in for QE3 tapering * Current rate of tapering will see end to
QE3 by December
Yellen Faces Test Bernanke Failed: Ease Bubbles – BB
Yellen probably will
confront a test during her tenure as Federal Reserve chairman that both of her
predecessors flunked: defusing asset bubbles without doing damage to the
economy.
I expect the Fed to
proceed for now but if China does not pour forth further stimulus then
taper will get more difficult with each passing month.
MACRO
NUMBERS
A Look at Case-Shiller
by Metro Area – WSJ
5 Things You Need to
Know About Home Prices – WSJ
Comment on House
Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities – Calculated
Risk
Home prices rise more
than forecast in November – Reuters
Analysis: Not Really
Any Positives in Durable-Goods Report – WSJ
December Durable Goods
Report: A Massive Disappointment – dshort
Durable goods orders
stumble, but consumers perk up – Reuters
Consumer Confidence
Strengthens in January – dshort
EMERGING
Monitor: Chinese Credit Crunch – Danske
Bank
Flash Comment: Mapping the EM sell-off – Danske
Bank
The dominant trigger is
likely to have been worries about Chinese growth and the financial situation in
China. However, local factors have also contributed
to the ‘EM hurricane’. Overall, we can identify three characteristics of the
sell-off. The hardest hit countries are those with large external imbalances
(such as Turkey and South Africa), commodity exporting countries (like Brazil and Russia) and countries with rising domestic
political/regime uncertainty (such as Ukraine and Turkey).
Don't panic – The
Economist
current financial
developments do not really resemble those in 1997-8, for several reasons.
Exchange rates are more flexible now. Debt levels are far smaller, relative to
reserves, than they were in the 1990s. And the crisis, if it amounts to that,
is so far focused on economies that are experiencing acute political
difficulties…Fed tightening cycles have consistently generated capital flow
reversals over the past 30 years—the era of financial globalisation.
Hard to look beyond Turkey today. The central bank will issue its
quarterly inflation report and has called an emergency policy meeting
thereafter and will deliver a verdict at midnight local time. All very
cloak and dagger.
Will Selloff Push Emerging Market Central Banks
to Raise Rates? – WSJ
These Are The Riskiest Emerging Markets – ZH
FINNISH
Milloin
asuntomarkkinoilla alkaa tapahtua? – Tyhmyri
Töyssyjä
Irlannin toipumiselle – vienti tökkii – Tyhmyri
Verottaja
selvitti: Virossa toimivilla suomalaisyrittäjillä reilusti verovelkaa – TE
Miten
mitata julkisen sektorin kokoa – Tieto & Trendit
Osakeasuntojen
hinnat laskivat joulukuussa – Tilastokeskus
Pula
pienistä asunnoista pahenee pääkaupunkiseudulla – HS