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Wednesday, January 29

29th Jan - Turkey hikes rates

Was the low interest rate a problem for Turkey – No.

Was the problem a negative current account, high inflation, corrupted governance and inefficient economy – Yes.

Would the easiest way to reverse the current account balance have been to let the lira float weaker up to the equilibrium point – Yes

Will the interest rate hike attract hot money-flows to return to Turkey – Yes

Will the new hot money be even more fickle than the previous allotments – Yes.

Will the interest rate hike improve the real economy – No

Do I now feel that everything in Turkey is fine and problems are solved – No.

Does this remind me of 1992 when FX stability was deemed more important than everything else – Yes.

Will this do anything but force other countries suffering from outbound hot money flows to raise interest rates or introduce capital controls – No.

Turkey Hikes Overnight Rate By 4.25% To 12%, Blows Away ExpectationsZH

World Markets React To Turkey's 425bps Rate HikeZH

SocGen's Exuberant Response To The Turkish Action ZH
"Governor Basci, You Have Avoided A Domino Crisis In EM"

Turkey’s Central Bank Declares a Shock-and-Awe Rate HikeWSJ

Turkey hikes, aggressivelyalphaville / FT

Turkish central bank makes massive rate hikes to stem lira fallReuters

Turkey More Than Doubles Interest Rate in Emergency Move to Bolster LiraBB

Turkey’s Continental DivideBB

Yen Slips With Gold as Turkey Rate Rise Lifts Asia StocksBB