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Tuesday, November 3

2nd Nov - PMI day

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Enlargement and the euro are two big mistakes that ruined EuropeFT
Wolfgang Münchau: The single currency is a trap and eastern expansion forced the EU to take its eye off the ball

German reunification lessons for European Fiscal Unionvox
With a European transfer union on the cards, we can learn a lot from Germany’s reunification – a transfer union of sorts. This column takes us through various lessons, concluding that transfers would cement southern Europe’s lack of competitiveness and drive Europe into permanent stagnation.

EU Monitor: Capital Markets UnionDB Research
An ambitious goal, but few quick wins

Iceland PM: We dodged the EU bulletPolitico
Gunnlaugsson claims the country wouldn’t have rebounded as quickly had it been in the bloc.

Spain: solid rate of growth in the third quarterPictet

As Swedish central bank fights deflation, housing bubble worries mountReuters

Merkel and Seehofer reach common ground – Politico
Merkel's Biggest Refugee Test Is Syrians Unwilling to Integrate – BB
Stratfor: Why Germany Cannot Stop the Flow of Migrants – Fabius Maximus

Draghi Interview – ECB
Draghi claims euro is in the clear – Politico
Draghi Says Further Stimulus in December Remains 'Open Question' – BB
ECB will do what is needed to keep inflation target on track: Draghi – Reuters
Draghi Admits Global QE Failed: "Slowdown Probably Not Temporary" – ZH

The ECB as sovereign lender of last resortSimon Wren-Lewis

ECB Research: Draghi will surprise the markets againDanske Bank

The short-term fiscal implications of structural reformsECB
Typically, the main resistance to the adoption and implementation of structural reforms stems from the vested interests of affected groups in society. Besides this, the possible short-term economic and fiscal costs of structural reforms are also sometimes mentioned as a reason for postponing their adoption, suggesting a short-term trade-off between fiscal consolidation and reforms.

ECB reveals capital hole in Greek banks as unpaid loans soar – Reuters
ECB's bank test shows third bailout likely to be smaller than planned – ESM – Reuters
Greek Banks Face Skeptical Investors in Demand for Fresh Capital – BB
Greek Bad Debt Rises Above 50% For The First Time, ECB Admits – ZH

Goldman on Q3 Earnings Season: "Adequate Earnings, Dismal Sales"ZH

U.S. jobs data to hold key to Fed's rate plansReuters

Kenneth Rogoff: The Fed’s Communication BreakdownProject Syndicate
The Fed’s communication strategy is a mess, and cleaning it up is far more important than the exact timing of its decision to exit near-zero interest rates.

US Phillips curve alive – and soon kicking?Nordea
Our research suggests that the US Phillips curve is still alive, supporting the Fed leadership’s view that labour market improvement should eventually push inflation back to target. Our Phillips curve model suggests that wage growth will pick up to around 3% over the coming year. Against this background, we continue to believe that rising inflation pressures will imply that the Fed will raise rates faster in 2016 and 2017 than is currently priced in by markets.

Bernanke’s Biggest BlunderSlate
This student of the Great Depression repeated a terrible mistake of the Great Depression.

US wages and monetary policyPictet
Surprisingly hawkish FOMC statement in October

G-20 Economies: Rebalancing for More Durable GrowthIMF
External imbalances have narrowed; improvements expected to last * Managing high public debt in advanced economies remains a key challenge * Joint policy actions would help further rebalancing and growth

The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next OneCBPP

News In Charts: Will China Drag The Rest Of The World Down With It?Alpha Now

Between debt and the devil by Adair TurnerFT
"Rising debt may or may not lead to crisis but a collapse in nominal demand nearly always does.

Konzept October 2015Deutsche Bank

China’s Official Factory Gauge Signals Contraction Continues – BB
China's October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly – Reuters
Manufacturing Misses; Nonmanufacturing Worst Since 2008 Despite – ZH
PMI signals bottom in Chinese economy – Danske Bank

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Higher on Manufacturing Data

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Key Jobs Report On Tap This Week

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

USD weaker ahead of Fedspeak, rates up but room for more * This week’s highlights: central bank policy meetings, Fedspeak and US jobs report * Fed priced 50/50 for December hike * USD weakens broadly, down from the range

Morning MarketsTF
Yet another miss from China overnight has sent Asian stocks down leaving Europe braced for a fall.

Daily ShotTF
It's no stunner, as far as recoveries go, but given the scale of the Eurozone economy investors will be happy to see the currency bloc continuing to plod onwards and upwards.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel and Seehofer build bridges although German grand coalition still divided over response to refugee influx * Remain and Leave neck and neck in YouGov poll as French are most pessimistic about future of EU * Osborne heads to Berlin to push for safeguards for non-Eurozone states * European Commission to unveil stricter rules on EU migrants’ access to benefits * FAZ: Juncker says German savings banks will not be touched by deposit guarantee scheme * ECB sees €14.4bn shortfall in Greek bank capital in worst-case scenario * IMF reiterates call for Greek debt restructuring * Eurozone banks still holding €826bn in bad loans * Erdoğan’s party re-gains absolute majority in Turkish parliament

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Erdoğan’s big win — Brexit turning point

Futures Rebound From Overnight Lows On Stronger European Manufacturing Surveys, Dovish ECB


FX UpdateTF
This week is the make-or-break week until at least early December for USD traders, as the key US data is in the driver’s seat now that the market seems to have given up paying attention to guidance from the Fed.

From the FloorTF
The Turkish lira jumped and the stock market rallied strongly after the AK Party won a stunning election victory, which was seen as restoring one-party rule and boosting the power of the president.

Kiina matkalla normaaliksi * USA:n työmarkkinoiden vahva trendi tekee paluun * Tänään luvassa USA:n ja Britannian teollisuuden luottamus * Euroalueen inflaatio kiihtyi nollaan lokakuussa

Jan Hurri: Kuinka tässä näin kävi, EU? Kriisien piti vahvistaaTalSa
Jos Jean Monnet'n teoria kriisien EU:ta yhdentävästä vaikutuksesta pitäisi kutinsa, liittovaltio olisi jo valmis. Nyt kriisejä on kuitenkin pulpunnut kuin liukuhihnalta, ja Monnet'n oppi on lujilla. Näyttää käyvän toisin kuin piti: nämä kriisit repivät eivätkä yhdistä.

Tapio Nurminen: Hyvän sään EU ja sen dramaattiset virheetMTV
Euroopan unioni on erinomaisella säällä erinomainen yhteenliittymä. Mutta kun myrsky iskee, nuotipiirin yhteishenki hiipuu olemattomaksi.

Sami Metelinen: Euroon ei olisi kannattanut liittyä – poiskaan ei pääseVerkkouutiset
Ilman Euroopan turvallisuustilanteen nopeaa heikkenemistä euron hajoaminen olisi voinut olla vaihtoehto. Enää se ei ole muuta kuin niille, jotka kannattavat heikkoa ja hajanaista Eurooppaa.