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Friday, November 6

6th Nov - Strong jobs, Fed to hike in Dec

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Finland: Political crisis further dashes growth prospectsNordea
25 years of German unity - Economic implications for EuropeBerenberg
Angela Merkel rejects German plan for refugee transit zones – FT
German government shifts position on Syrian refugeesOpen Europe
Steep drop in industrial output raises questions over growth – Reuters

ECB will finally lower its core inflation forecast – Danske Bank
Inflation forecasts: Are market-based and survey-based measures informative? – ECB
The Eurozone: Deflationary Boom Or Deflationary Bust? – Social Europe
Peter Praet: Monetary policy as information processing (slides) – ECB
ECB would risk credibility of forward guidance with rate cut: Hansson – Reuters

BOE’s QE Legacy Persists – WSJ
Cameron Risks Dancing With Wrong Partner in EU Reform Courtship – BB
Mark Carney Thinks This Is the Inflation Rate You Should Watch – BB

U.S. employment seen raising December rate hike chances – Reuters
NFP preview: Fed just needs a nudge for December – TF
+271K, Unemployment Rate 5.0%, Earnings Spike – ZH
+27K Jobs, 5.0% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
October Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
Higher Wages Will Make Rate Rise an Easier Decision for Yellen – BB
October Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
The October Jobs Report in 12 Charts – WSJ
Massive 271,000 jobs blowout means Fed must act – TF
Economists React: ‘December Move Almost a Certainty’WSJ
Strong Jobs Data Push Greenback Through Key Chart Points – Marc Chandler
Full-Time Employment Above Where It Was Before the Recession – WSJ
Underemployment Looks a Lot Better – BB
Even stronger case for Fed lift-off – jobs report reviewNordea
Hiring surged in October, spurring predictions of Fed rate hike – WaPo
Who Hired In October: The Full Breakdown By Industry – ZH

Issues that deterred September hike largely disappeared: Bullard – Reuters
Bullard Says Stronger Labor Market Supports Near Term Liftoff – BB
Fed's Evans says conditions could be right for rate hike – Reuters
Here’s Who Is, and Isn’t, Changing Their Timeline for the First Fed Hike – BB
Robust U.S. jobs report bolsters case for December rate hike – Reuters
Surging U.S. job growth lowers bar for December Fed rate hike – Reuters
The October Jobs Report Gives Fed Officials a Green Light to Raise Rates – BB
Higher Wages Will Make Rate Rise an Easier Decision for Yellen – BB
Why the Fed will raise rates – Scott Sumner
First Fed hike in December due to very strong job reportDanske Bank

Bernanke on austerity and the fiscal charterSimon Wren-Lewis
Paul Krugman: Austerity’s Grim LegacyNYT

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Wall Street’s Quiet Ahead of Jobs Report

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
It’s Jobs Friday

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Jobs Data Crucial Six Weeks Before the Fed Meets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Payrolls to boost support for December hike * Some further selling pressure in the Treasury market * Weaker GBP after dovish BoE

Morning MarketsTF
All across global markets it's about American jobs today, as the October US nonfarm payrolls data this afternoon are seen as the key to the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates next month, and many analysts say it will only take a small nudge from the numbers for the Fed to act at its December FOMC meeting.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Rounding out the Week with US Jobs

Daily ShotTF
The world's central banks remain addicted to accomodative policy with only the Federal Reserve even discussing a return from "emergency" measures.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
European Commission sees slowdown in Eurozone growth next year * Over 758,000 refugees registered in Germany in 2015 * New report warns UK would lose access preferential market access to 51 states if it were to leave the EU * Finnish PM says government “very likely” to fall over health reforms * Spanish Constitutional Court refuses to block independence debate in Catalan parliament * Commission sees slight GDP boost from huge migrant flows, but slight fall in GDP per capita * Greek parliament passes package of reforms bringing it closer to next tranche of funding * Draghi insists ECB bond purchases have been effective but stresses more may be needed

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Finnish line — Catalans can — Poles not in position

Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls; World's Largest Steel Maker Ends Dividend; China IPOs Return


FX UpdateTF
The USD is spring-loaded for further gains across the board if the US employment report today doesn’t raise any red flags, and especially if we get a blowout number above +200k, which should convince most of the remaining doubters that a December Fed rate hike is in the cards.

From the FloorTF
For all the talk of an increasingly multipolar world, the centrality of today's US jobs print shows that the appetite for American leadership is far from sated.

Englannin keskuspankilla ei ole kiire * Suomen vienti ”romahti” syyskuussa * USA:n työmarkkinoiden veto pysyy todennäköisesti vahavana * Saksan teollisuustuotannon kasvu hiipuu