Google Analytics

Thursday, November 19

19th Nov - Fed seen hiking, but carefully

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrativevox
The Eurozone Crisis, which broke out in May 2010, is a long way from finished. Worse yet, many of the fragilities and imbalances that primed the monetary union for the Crisis are still present. EZ decision-makers will never agree upon the changes needed to prevent future crises unless they agree upon the basic facts that explain how the EZ Crisis got so bad and lasted so long. CEPR Policy Insight 85 presents a consensus narrative of the causes.

IMF programmes: Greece vs Iceland vox
Iceland’s external debt was de jure private, while Greece’s external debt was sovereign debt. Iceland has its own currency, making it easy to create a current account surplus through a lower exchange rate. The government of Iceland took full ownership of the IMF programme, which was not the case in Greece.

Account of the monetary policy meeting – ECB
October Minutes Say "Deflation Risk Not fully Excluded" – ZH
ECB minutes: risk of inflation target miss increased – Reuters
Speech  Peter Praet: Monetary policy under uncertainty – ECB

Outdated due to the strong jobs report - December hike seems very likely – Danske Bank
FOMC gives thumbs up for December rate rise – TF
Did Goldman Sachs Just Find The Smoking Gun In Minutes? – ZH
3 points on the Fed minutes – Macro Man
Fed to hike in December, but also intends to proceed slowly and steadily – Reuters
Fed Minutes Make a December Liftoff Look More Likely – BB
Fed likely to move in December – Nordea

Goldman Releases Its Top 6 Trades For 2016... And The Three Biggest RisksZH

RBS: 10 key points for 2016: Political Risk Will Break QE-Infinity EquilibriumZH

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Extend Rally on Fed Minutes

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Fed Minutes Spur Equity Gains

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Markets Prepare for Liftoff

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
October’s FOMC minutes point to a December rate hike…and gradual pace of rate hikes thereafter * Minutes suggest US weathered well global financial stress…and US domestic demand to support growth going forward

Minutes suggest December hike, yields lower, USD weaker * Fed and ECB speeches, few data on the agenda * Germany sells 2-years at record lows * Riksbank comments strengthen SEK

Morning MarketsTF
Asian bourses mostly took a positive lead from Wall Street, with equities surging in Japan and Sydney. Indeed the rise was so strong on the ASX that it sparked talk of an early Santa rally, with the big four banks and top miners back in favour. Shanghai joined the rally party too, but only made modest gains.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Corrects Lower

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Juncker endorses EU with different levels of integration * France demands tighter controls of Schengen’s external borders ahead of emergency summit * Germany debates upping military response to terrorism at home and overseas * Hungary to launch case against EU refugee quotas at ECJ * Russia tables UN proposal for West to combat IS alongside Assad * Portuguese President to consult parties again over formation of new government

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Two-speed EU — Two-sided Molenbeek — Paris attacks

Global Markets Surge Overnight On Fed Minutes Optimism; ECB Minutes Set To Keep Rally Going


FX UpdateTF
The FOMC minutes were entirely in line with expectations, and the price action after their release suggests that more was needed to keep the US dollar on the rally track. But is this a brief hiccup, or is the USD ripe for a further correction, especially versus the commodity dollars?

From the FloorTF
The Federal Open Market Committee has released its latest minutes, and the countdown to liftoff is on. As the big event draws nearer, however, it strangely begins to lose its epic scale.

Konsensus valtaa alaa Fedissä * Tänään äänessä EKP:n johtokunnan jäseniä * Japanin ulkomaankauppaluvut odotettua ankeammat * Ruotsin työmarkkinat kehittyvät todennäköisesti edelleen vahvasti