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Thursday, November 12

11th Nov - Portugal loses government

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The macroeconomic effects of the Eurozone's fiscal consolidationvox
With credit constraints both in the household and the firm sector, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the weak growth performance during 2011-2013. Postponing the fiscal consolidation to a period of unconstrained monetary policy would have avoided most of these losses.

How the Eurozone Exports DeflationECB Watchers
Fiscal devaluation without wage growth will trigger bad side effects both at home and abroad.

It won’t be Weimar, but the end of a European GermanyPolitico
The U.K. turning its back on Europe would risk reviving the “German question.”

Spain’s politics: challenging time aheadPictet

Portuguese Politics Takes the Lightening Rod from GreeceMarc Chandler
Portugal takes left turn to Greek roadTF
Portugal Seeks Leader as Coelho Government Ousted After 11 Days – BB

Portugal Bonds Hurt by Politics May Face QE Eligibility HeadwindBB

Europe’s other taboo: reform of the ECBSimon Wren-Lewis

ECB shortens transition time for some bank capital exemptionsReuters
The ECB proposed several amendments to its banking regulations on Wednesday that could force some lenders to build capital more quickly than expected.

UK unemployment falls but wage growth disappoints – TF
Lowest unemployment rate since 2008 indicates tighter labour market – Danske Bank
Carney Vows to Fix Finance Fault Lines and Build Global Markets – BB
How Successful Was Carney's Forward Guidance? – BB
The Brexit Balance Sheet – Project Syndicate
European views on the UK’s renegotiation – Europp

Poll: December Fed rate hike forecasts firm after strong jobs dataReuters

Global FX Strategy: A liftoff, or a fizzling?Nordea
The policy divergence theme is back with a vengeance, after taking a brief time-out after Fed’s dovish hold in September. Now, ECB seems likely to err on the dovish side, while the Fed seems dead set to hike rates. The potential impact from the first rate hike in the world’s main reserve currency in almost 10 years should not be understated.

New financial forecastsNordea
Over the last month, it has become increasingly likely that the Fed will start hiking in December and that it will be on its own, even more so than previously assumed. The BoE’s lift-off seems to be postponed while new easing measures are expected from the ECB. The BoJ has, like the ECB, been surprised by low inflation, but seems unwilling to expand its QE.

China: Mixed hard data for October, Premier Li hints at more stimulusDanske Bank

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Mixed Amid Pressure on Apple

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Push Higher; Chinese Data in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Dollar Doldrums Expected To Abate in 2016

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Portugal’s newly appointed minority government ousted…political situation to remain unstable with high risk of fiscal slippage * Prime Minister Cameron sets out pillars of UK’s renegotiation of relationship with EU

Euro rates updateNordea

New financial forecasts * Increased QE2 expectations send yields lower * EUR/USD at a 6-month low

Morning MarketsTF
Alibaba said it would blast beyond the $9.3 billion record from last year's #SinglesDay and delivered by lunchtime. Now it's a question of how high the figure can go as we keep an eye on the New York open.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Corrective Forces Dominate

Daily ShotTF
While last Friday's knockout jobs print has been cut down to size by any number of commentators, a raft of new data from the US show that the country's economy is indeed fairly solid and could likely absorb a Fed rate hike.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel “reasonably confident” EU reform deal can be reached as Eastern Europe reacts strongly against migrant benefit proposals * Attention turns to feasibility of migrant benefit proposals following Prime Minister’s EU speech * German government in row about Dublin regulation for Syrian refugees * Portuguese leftist parties force resignation of centre-right minority government * Carney says he will make outcome of the EU referendum work no matter what it is * UBS Chairman: Brexit “won't undermine the UK as a financial centre” * Czech deputy head of government demands exclusion of Greece from Schengen * Eurozone reaches agreement on financing of single bank resolution fund * Three cases launched against ECB Quantitative Easing at the German Constitutional Court * Greece eyes returning to the markets in second half of 2016 * EU set to delay introduction of MiFID II rules by up to a year

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
New PMs — Migration summit — Dear Donald


FX UpdateTF
The USD reverses its latest gains and shows a disappointing lack of momentum for the bulls. No major technical lines in the sand have been crossed yet, with GBPUSD today offering an interesting test today of relative strength on important UK data.

From the FloorTF
Portugal has emerged as a new risk factor in fixed-income markets after the government lost a confidence vote, and signs of new risk-off sentiment are weighing on emerging markets, while the dollar is consolidating its gains.

Uppoava euro * Kiinan teollisuustuotannon kasvu hidastui * Riksbank on valmis taistelemaan kruunun vahvistumista vastaan * USA:ssa korkomarkkinat tänään kiinni veteraanipäivän vuoksi

Miksi suomalainen talouspolitiikka on talouskuripolitiikkaa?Image
Professori Viren: "MOT oli täydellinen rimanalitus"KL

Näytöt puuttuvat vielä Peter Nyberg