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Tuesday, November 10

10th Nov - USD strengthens again

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Iain Begg: Deepening EU Economic Governance: The Next StepsSocial Europe

EUR curves: Recent curve steepening looks excessiveNordea
After the latest Fed meeting markets have lowered their expectations as to what could be expected from the ECB. This has caused curves to rise. As we still see the ECB delivering a full package in December, together with the 33% limit applicable as of today, we see a case for the curve going flatter.

Euro area: GDP numbers can have an impact on the ECBNordea
On Friday, Q3 GDP numbers for the Euro area will be published. A weaker outcome than 0.3% q/q could strengthen those in the Governing Council advocating very aggressive steps. A positive growth surprise will not keep the ECB from easing monetary policy further as there are mainly downside risks to the outlook. Where there is a will to easy policy further, there is a way – and low inflation expectations are the key justification.

ECB publishes new statistical report on the Household Sector – ECB
Household sector report 2015 Q2 – ECB

Cameron says sometimes 'less Europe' is better – Reuters
Cameron Confident of EU Reforms as He Seeks to Keep Britain in EU – BB
David Cameron demands a ‘changed’ EU — or Britain bolts – Politico
Cameron’s letter: European views on the UK’s renegotiation – Europp
Open Europe responds to Cameron’s letter – Open Europe

Doves also appear ready to fly in DecemberDanske Bank

Dithering has left the Fed with a messTF

EURUSD: the waiting gameNordea
The policy divergence trade has returned with a vengeance over the past few weeks. We now find ourselves in a waiting game. Will risk appetite worsen, prompting unwanted EUR strength?

Bond market overview: ‘Whatever it takes’ not run its courseNordea
While the Fed retains the possibility of raising rates in December, the ECB is preparing to launch another easing package in its next meeting. Despite these seemingly contradictory central bank stances, bonds should continue to be supported.

Stiglitz & Guzman: A Step Forward For Sovereign Debt – Social Europe
Monetary policy and financial spillovers: losing traction? – BIS
Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads – BIS

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Fall, as Market Mulls Rates

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Higher

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Should the Fed Really Move in December?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese inflation lower than expected, Asian risk appetite retreating * Is the ECB’s Governing Council pondering big cuts? * Danish and Norwegian inflation out today

Morning MarketsTF
Consumer price inflation (or the lack thereof) will colour European trading sentiment today with both Italy and Norway releasing their latest CPI updates. China will attract attention too on the heels of its unexpectedly poor CPI reading and ahead of a key number on industrial production early tomorrow.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler

Daily ShotTF
Chinese inflation measures came in weaker than expected, China's GDP deflator is in the red, and Chinese business confidence is at an all-time low for the indicator. All this means that the People's Bank of China is likely to ease further.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron argues UK can have best of both worlds as he sets out key UK EU renegotiation demands * New government figures suggest 43% of new EU migrants to UK claim benefits in first four years * EU plans to set up refugee-processing centres in Western Balkans * EU Court of Auditors finds EU spending “materially affected by error” * Germany’s AfD on record-high 10% in new poll, while Merkel’s party continues to shrink * EU member states criticise European Parliament for ignoring obligation to cut staff numbers * Eurozone finance ministers hold off on disbursement of next tranche of Greek bailout * Italy’s public spending czar resigns

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Cameron’s big day — Catalonia multi-crisis

Global Stocks Fall For 5th Day On Disturbing Chinese Inflation Data; Renewed Rate Hike Fears; Copper At 6 Year Low


FX UpdateTF
The USD bulls are looking for the US dollar to follow through higher after last week’s boost on strong US data. Today’s calendar is a thin affair, with Norway’s CPI release the only event risk likely to trigger notable market reaction.

From the FloorTF
The impact of Friday's nonfarm payrolls release is still being felt as markets digest the implications of a stronger USD and an imminent Fed rate hike. What's new, however, is an ultra-dovish statement from the ECB signalling a potential rate cut in December – are Draghi and Yellen set to diverge further still?

Riksbankin inflaatiotavoite tarkastelun alla * Euroalueen sijoittajien luottamus koheni pitkästä aikaa * EKP:n talletuskoron laskeminen näyttää yhä todennäköisemmältä * Ruotsin kotitalouksien kulutus kasvoi aneemisesti