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Tuesday, November 3

3rd Nov - Waiting for US jobs Friday

Me: Why worry about politics in the eurozone ? The EZ will not fly. If democracy will not accept that, the economics will force the issue.

Z: ...or democracy will put an end to the EZ

Me: I don't think it will, but I did hope so. There are market failures and democracy failures. Euro is both.

Z: Usually it's up to the market to give the final blow.

Me: I'd say euro is a  failure of the market (markets allowed it to exist) and of democracy (which created it). Since 2010 markets have done what they could to break the euro. Democracy failed to understand the message.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Staying Outside the Euro Area Has a Priceeuinside
There is no new expansion visible on the horizon, mainly because there are no takers. Most states outside the euro area but are bound by treaties to join, have no appetite for it. The reason usually is that while there is still smoke coming out of the burning house it is not safe.

Tony Barber: The eurozone’s fiscally lax nations are at it againFT
France, Italy and Spain are slipping the EU’s budget leash

Surveys suggest 5-Star Movement could win next Italian electionReuters

Spain's Rajoy pins re-election hopes on jobs pickupTF

Paul Krugman: Flexible IllusionsNYT

Operation Guilt Trip: Brussels heaps pressure on member states over refugees – FT
Merkel Under Fire as Refugee Crisis Worsens – Spiegel

Osborne To Call For Recognition That EU Is “Multi-Currency Union” – WSJ
Full text: George Osborne speech in Berlin – FT
Osborne’s Berlin speech: what he says and what he means – FT
Osborne seeks two-tier Europe enshrined in law – FT
Merkel gives qualified backing to Osborne’s EU reforms – FT
Osborne tells Germans it’s quid pro euro – Politico

Transmission of the ECB's recent non-standard monetary policy measuresECB

ECB Report 2015Q3 Place du Luxembourg
Resilience in the face of localised instability

Euro Corporate Watch – It could be a busy last six weeksABN AMRO
October supply falls short of expectations * Low supply level has been constructive for spreads * ECB QE Plus expectations boost investor risk appetite * We expect supply volumes to pick up in the last six weeks * This will slow down the tightening bias

US labour market monitorDanske Bank
October job growth to keep December hike in play

Are Wages Useful in Forecasting Price Inflation?FED
Wages generally provide less valuable insight into future prices than some other indicators. In fact, models that do not incorporate wages often result in superior inflation forecasts.

Gross Says Fed Should ‘Switch’, Not ‘Twist,’ to Revive EconomyBB
Bill Gross: Zero Rates Are Breaking the Capital MarketsWSJ

5 Things to Watch in Janet Yellen’s Congressional TestimonyWSJ

Maurice Obstfeld: What Future for Unconventional Monetary PoliciesIMF
The upcoming IMF Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on “Unconventional Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies” (November 5-6, 2015).

Advanced economies are so sick we need a new way to think about themWaPo

Want to Grow the Economy? Might Be Time to Unleash the DevilINET
Is an ancient financial taboo keeping us from prosperity? Adair Turner, author of a new book on global finance, explains.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally, Dow Back in the Green for 2015

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Upcoming Jobs Data Stifles Activity

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Buyback Binge Looms for Stocks

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
ECB President Draghi sounds more cautiousbut we still think further monetary easing is on the cards * Global manufacturing PMI firms in October, though growth moderate helped by turn in China’s Caixin index, and modest improvement in US and Eurozone

Euro rates updateNordea

Nasdaq at 15-year high, global manufacturing outlook improves, higher bond yields * Improved outlook for manufacturing sector * ECB easing prospects to limit upside for German yields * EUR performs well

Morning MarketsTF
Today's data gives investors a peek into the recoveries afoot in the Eurozone and the US.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
A Few Brief Thoughts on FX

Daily ShotTF
A look at the latest suite of manufacturing reports shows a soft sector overall, but there are signs that the volatility seen this year may finally be slowing down.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne to detail part of the UK’s EU reform push in Berlin speech * The Daily Mail: European Commission considers ‘cash in exchange for migration control’ proposal * Merkel: Closure of Austrian-German border could see re-emergence of “military conflicts” in the Balkans * UK more likely to be outvoted in Council of Ministers than any other EU member state * FT: ECB officials met bankers ahead of key monetary policy decisions * ECB classification of asset managers as shadow banks angers the industry * New poll: Majority of European financial professionals expect two-tier Eurozone to emerge * Spanish Foreign Minister: Catalonia “uprising” has to be “suffocated” * Belgian regional parliament calls for suspension of negotiations over EU-US trade deal * Registered EU lobbyists hit 6,000 mark

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Playbook Poll — France’s elite thicket

Futures Flat Despite More Weakness Among European Banks, Volkswagen; Another Apple Supplier Warning


FX UpdateTF
Traders continue to tread cautiously on the US dollar ahead of Friday’s key employment report, but it’s decision time soon for this market. The dollar can’t remain in tight ranges forever, especially considering the time of year and potential for major central bank moves over the next 6-8 weeks.

From the FloorTF
Nervous markets ahead of key US jobs data this week are on the lookout for any signals that the European Central Bank could be ready to boost its quantitative easing programme by year-end.

USA:n teollisuuden vaikeudet jatkuvat * Suomen julkinen velka vaaravyöhykkeelle * Britannian teollisuuden luottamus piristyi huimasti * Australian keskuspankki piti ohjauskorkonsa ennallaan

Kun tieto ei kelpaaItä-Savo
Löytyykö Eurooppaa ja Suomea jäytävän talouskriisin taustoista jokin suuri kertomus? Yksi vahva ehdokas on tutkimustietoon perustuvien kriittisten äänten jääräpäinen sivuuttaminen.