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Wednesday, November 4

4th Nov - Yellen keeps Dec hike alive

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Deepening EU economic governance: the next stepsEuropp
The Eurozone reforms with a decidedly integrating impact are going ahead. There could be some potential consequences for the UK’s attempts to renegotiate its EU membership.

Was the € a good idea?Francesco Papadia

Why Fiscal Policy In The Eurozone Should Be Fully RenationalisedSocial Europe

Shared unemployment insurancePrime Economics

Six Charts Show the Bank of England's Rate ConundrumBB
The strong pound and labor-market slack support no change * But wage pressures are building and the world's less scary

ECB cutting through the lower bound - Danish experiences – Danske Bank
ECB Urges Caution on Giving EU States Budget Leeway Over Reforms – BB
Draghi Says ECB Ready to Act to Maintain Monetary Accommodation – BB
Draghi is half-way through his eight-year term – Politico

5 Things to Watch in Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony – WSJ
These confidential documents will haunt Yellen’s testimony – WaPo
Yellen’s Congressional Testimony—Live Analysis – WSJ
Yellen Signals a Fed Tilt Toward December Rate Increase – NYT
Yellen sees possible December rate rise, gradual hiking path – Reuters
Yellen Signals Solid Economy Would Spur December Rate Hike – BB

EURUSD: ETF flows turning, consistent with a stronger divergence themeNordea
Equity ETF flows appear to be turning, consistent with a stronger ECB/Fed policy divergence theme. These flows are also consistent with the EUR remaining a funding currency, as well as showing a negative correlation with broader measures of risk appetite.

FX: discounting the undiscountableNordea
Much ink has been spilled on the topic of the first Fed rate hike: when will it occur, how many hikes will there be, and so on, but isn’t the first Fed rate hike “undiscountable” anyway?

Restarting the global economy: Three mismatches that need concerted public actionvox
The global economy is not working properly. This column argues that to overcome suboptimal results, global aggregate demand must be expanded, the gap between excessively large pools of capital and huge unmet infrastructure needs must be bridged, and finally, the distributional downside of rapid technological advances and global integration must be addressed. Change will come only when a global vision is put forth, coupled with political will.

Tax cuts vs spending vs helicoptersSimon Wren-Lewis

It's Been a Rough Year for Analysts Forecasting Central-Bank DecisionsBB
Of 28 major central banks around the world, analysts have missed the mark on 20 of them, or 71 percent, mainly by underestimating how low rates would go — but also the extent of tightening by some banks.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise, Riding Oil Rally’s Coattails

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Rise Ahead of Yellen

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Equity Investors Still Have Jitters

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Positive markets sentiment, Yellen and Draghi could give new clues * Focus on central bank speeches * Broad USD gains yesterday * December lift-off fears send US bond yields higher

Morning MarketsTF
After last night's New York bell, carmaker Tesla saw its shares jump by nearly 10% in the after-hours session as investors waxed bullish on the company's prospects. The move followed a bullish US day and preceded an even more bullish Asian session as risk-on makes its electrifying return to world markets.

Daily ShotTF
Brazilian manufacturing activity collapsed in October, with the PMI hitting its lowest level since the Great Recession, but the real has firmed and Brazilian stocks risen on valuations. Saudia Arabian PMI fell in October to the lowest reading since the data series began in 2009. Zambia raised rates. And market-implied expectations for a December Fed rate hike now stand at 50%.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel: On EU, “British concerns are our concerns” * Austrian Foreign Minister: British EU reform proposals could be “chance for the whole EU, and we should use it” * CBI Board warned UK government about overplaying hand in EU negotiations * CSU drafts constitutional expert to prepare case against Merkel’s refugee policy * Ruparel: Cameron would struggle to sell limited restrictions on EU migrants’ access to benefits * Draghi warns failing to complete banking union will repeat mistakes made when Euro was created * Boris Johnson insists he will wait and see outcome of EU reform before deciding how to vote in EU referendum * French PM: Debate over TTIP “far from over” * Half of London homeowners believe Brexit would boost house prices * Large international banks warn of impact on City from Brexit

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel backs two-speed Europe — Migration migraines

Global Rally Continues After PBOC "Unintentionally" Sparks Market Surge With Stale News, Largest 2015 IPO Prices


FX UpdateTF
The USD faces a test from key data today, especially the October ADP payrolls change and the ISM non-manufacturing survey. Elsewhere, after a surge in risk appetite in Asia overnight, currency traders are playing up the carry trade with notable lack of participation from the weak NZD.

From the FloorTF
Japan Post's $12 billion IPO had us singing the Carpenter's in the office and From the Floor doesn't pass up that kind of opportunity. Elsewhere, it's all building into NFP on Friday.

EKP:n lisäelvytys tarpeetonta? Draghi alleviivasi jälleen EKP:n seuraavan kokouksen tärkeyttä * Kiina jatkaa pääomamarkkinoidensa avaamista ulkomaisille sijoittajille * Fedin johtajat tänään estradilla

Kasvu, kysyntärajoite ja digitalisaatioRoger Wessman
Kysynnällä on merkittävä vaikutus kasvuun, ja digitalisaatio pikemmin supistaa teollisuusyritysten myyntiä.