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Friday, November 13

13th Nov - Weak macro in EZ & US, migrants, G20

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One way the euro has become a lot more like the dollarFT

At the crossroads - the euro area between sovereignty and solidarityBIS
Speech by Dr Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements

Not All on Board With the European Fiscal BoardWSJ
A fight has broken out among eurozone policymakers over a new institution that is meant to help stir decisions on national budgets and the currency bloc’s overall fiscal trajectory.

Finland 'new sick man of Europe', worst performing economyThe Telegraph
GDP growth has collapsed to levels worse than Greece, contracting by -0.6pc in the third quarter

ECB preview: set to ease in December despite a weaker euroPictet

  Q3 GDP
Euro area: moderate Q3 GDP growth, but more domestically driven – Pictet
Eurozone recovery loses momentum – a final push for the ECB – ABN AMRO
German consumer defies external woes – Carsten Brzeski
Slower-than-expected growth likely to seal more ECB stimulus – Reuters
Slower growth in the Euro area – food for the ECB doves – Nordea
Need for more ECB stimulus as GDP growth disappointed – Handelsbanken

Schäuble warns of refugee ‘avalanche’ in dig at Merkel – FT
Angela Merkel’s cabinet controversy – Politico
EU gives green light to German, Swedish temporary border checks – Reuters
The EU Is Disintegrating – ZH
Note for G20: Migration: Recent Trends, Economic Impacts, Policy Implications – IMF
Refugee influx continues at full speed – DB Research
Refugee Crisis Strikes Blow in Markets as Sweden Spread Widens – BB

Any doubts over about December Fed hike may be swept away – Reuters
A Bloated Fed Balance Sheet Threatens to Speed Up Rate Hikes – BB

Retail Sales increased 0.1% in October – Bill McBride
Weak retail sales suggest moderate fourth-quarter economic growth – Reuters
Preliminary November Consumer Sentiment rises to 93.1 – Bill McBride
U.S. producer prices fall for second straight month – Reuters
Economic Takeaways of Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment in U.S. – BB

Voluntary disclosure of offshore tax evasionvox
They increase tax evasion, but also to significantly lower administrative costs, leading to a net increase in tax revenues.

Mind the Gap as Currency Markets Shrivel for All But Biggest FewBB
From kiwi to krone, spread between bids and asks is widening * `Erratic and volatile' becoming the norm even in G-10

Note to G20: Finalising post-crisis reforms – BIS
Note to G20: Implementation of the Basel III regulatory reforms – BIS
G20: Preparing for the Next Crisis – CFR
Fallout from Syria looms large as G20 leaders meet on global economy – Reuters
What to Watch for at the G-20 Summit – BB

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Drop as Selling Picks Up Steam

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Feel Heat From Fed, German GDP

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Rates the Battleground For Bank Bulls and Bears

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Draghi signals ECB is still set to step up stimulus next month * He was explicit on deposit rate cut and QE extension but not on increasing size or composition, which is probably still a live issue * Fed policymakers reveal ongoing FOMC split

Euro rates updateNordea

Commodities and equities down while Fed moves towards lift-off * GDP day in Europe * Dovish comments from Draghi * Weak commodity currencies

Morning MarketsTF
Commodity pain helped push shares lower across Asia, and US stocks ended lower overnight. Today offers a veritable cornucopia of economic data, with preliminary third-quarter GDP figures for the EU and several member nations this morning, as well as monthly US retail sales due later in the day.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Nothing to Fear from Friday the Thirteenth

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU leaders rush to agree €3bn migration deal with Turkey as Merkel to explain herself to German public * Survation poll puts Leave camp in the lead by 43% to 38% * Tusk: Very difficult to find agreement on UK’s renegotiation demands * ECB President Draghi says Eurozone will have to react to UK renegotiation * Portuguese centre-right leader suggests changing Constitution to allow for immediate snap election * France and Germany post similar growth but former accelerating and latter slowing * General strike brings Greece to a halt as Syriza comes under fire

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel meltdown? — Summit wrap — British health battle

Futures Extend Slide; Europe Has Biggest Weekly Drop In 2 Months; Commodities At 16 Year Lows


FX UpdateTF
The USD rally has lost critical momentum and needs to make a statement before the weekend if bulls are to maintain hopes of near-term gains. Today's US data are the likely signal for direction for next week.

From the FloorTF
A sluggish week of sideways movements in financial markets appears to be ending in a similar fashion though tinged with a bearish note after crude oil prices were further undermined on oversupply concerns and as Thursday's sharp pullback on Wall Street seeped into Asian equities.

Vaihtuiko Suomen suunta Q3:lla? * Mitä yllättävä BKT-luku tarkoittaisi EKP:n kannalta? * Fedin Fischerin mukaan dollarin vahvuus puoltaa hidasta rahapolitiikan kiristämistahtia * Euroalueen talouskasvu hidastuu

BKT:n pikaennakko kertoo, että tie on kivinenNordea