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Monday, November 23

23rd Nov - Good PMIs in Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euro crisis was not a government-debt crisisThe Economist

Euro and Schengen. Common flaws and common solutionsPaul De Grauwe

Euro crisis six years onYoutube
European Institute’s conference: Lars Christensen, Peter Garber, Willem Buiter

Brussels in new push for European deposit guaranteesPolitico

Here's How the Boring German Housing Market Turned Piping HotBB

Angela Merkel: 13 defining momentsPolitico

Portugal might be the next stop in the euro crisisWaPo

Benoît Cœuré: Paradigm lost: Rethinking international adjustments – ECB
Euro Area's Negative-Yielding Debt Tops $2 Trillion on Draghi – BB
Reviving Credit in the Euro Area – iMFdirect
France – Markit
Germany – Markit
German Economy Picks Up as Companies See New Demand Surge – BB
Eurozone – Markit
Euro area: PMIs signal broad-based growth – Nordea
Euro zone business growth at four-year high – Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI Surges To 54 Month High – ZH
PMI reaches a 4.5-year high – Handelsbanken 

European Governments Hold Meeting To Dismantle Borderless Travel – ZH
Inside the surreal world of the Islamic State’s propaganda machine – WaPo
Saudi Arabia, an ISIS That Has Made It – NYT
Molenbeek broke my heart – Politico
Battle against ISIS must be waged on every front – The Economist
Paris under attack – The Economist
Jihad at the heart of Europe – The Economist
ISIS might be slashing out because it has weakened – The Economist
Attacks unite Russia and West – The Economist
Drawbridges up? Schengen was already in trouble – The Economist
Brussels Becomes a Ghost Town as Terror Keeps People Inside – BB
Brussels Will Remain on Lockdown Monday With Metro, Schools Closed – BB
Belgian PM keeps Brussels on high terror alert – Politico
Paris, refugees, and Europe’s hard borders – Politico
Interview Viktor Orbán: ‘All the terrorists are migrants’ – Politico
Schengen Is Closing – euinside
Why we shouldn’t transfer more powers to EU – Open Europe

Scenario: Fed Hikes Rates, Starts A Recession, And Launches QE4ZH

Mission AccomplishedTim Duy
The Fed is set to declare “Mission Accomplished” at the next FOMC meeting. Indeed, many policymakers have already said as much. Absent a very significant change in the outlook, failure to hike rates in December would renew the barrage of criticism regarding their communications strategy that prompted them to highlight the December meeting in their last statement. Once they have communicated their intentions for subsequent rate hikes, they will turn their attention to the issue of normalizing the balance sheet.

5 Things to Watch in the Third-Quarter U.S. GDP ReportWSJ

Charting the Markets: Global Stocks End Five-Day Winning StreakBB
Commodities slump to 1999 low, the euro falls to April low and mining companies lead Stoxx 600 lower.

Even Michael Lewis Was Surprised Hollywood Bet on The Big ShortVanity Fair

Robert F. Dall, Mastermind of Mortgage-Backed Bonds, Dies at 81NYT

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
Stocks Keep Rising

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Weighed by Falls in Commodity Prices

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Heavy Week of Data To Offer Insight on Liftoff

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

ECB QE2 as close as ever on Draghi comments, yields lower, EUR weaker * Silence before the storm – Euro-area PMIs and Norwegian numbers this week * German short end yields again breaks record lows as EUR weakens vs G10 * A new start for Argentina with a pro-business president?

Morning MarketsTF
Traders looked to the Shanghai Composite for direction in the Asian session. China will probably be in focus more than is usual is this week, with trading muted in some other markets by public holidays. Tokyo was closed for a holiday today, and the US takes its Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar-Bloc Slumps with Commodities, Greenback Remains Bid

Daily ShotTF
The offshore yuan has fallen to its lowest level since September. Rumours are that China is curbing offshore yuan trading activity to limit outflows and stop the shorting of the yuan. Such measures could hasten further capital outflows rather than stemming them. China's currency policy remains erratic, seemingly moving further away from FX liberalisation rather than towards it.

Daily Press Summary Open Europe
Cameron says Britain will do “all in our power” to support France in fight against IS * CBI Director General warns EU referendum uncertainty is affecting investment, and hits out at ‘Leave’ camp * Cameron to delay cabinet reshuffle with no EU deal expected at December European Council * Swiss anti-immigration party signals willingness to compromise with EU on free movement * Moody’s says Brexit may not impact the UK’s credit rating * German coalition row delays approval of tougher asylum laws * Orbán: Western leaders ignoring “overwhelming logical” connection between terrorism and the movement of Muslims into Europe * Orbán: “It’s an open question” whether the EU will be here in ten years * Italy considers bad bank despite European Commission objections

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Brussels raids and shutdown — Orbán interview

Global Stocks Fall For First Time In Six Days As Commodity Rout Spills Over Into Stocks


FX UpdateTF
The run up to the end of the year features an onslaught of event risks, most notably, next Thursday’s ECB meeting and the December 16 FOMC rate announcement. But that doesn't have to mean that this US Thanksgiving holiday week is merely a waiting game if traders are insecure that they are positioned properly for what lies ahead.

From the FloorTF
Central bank divergence has pushed the spread on yields on two-year bonds in the US and Germany to their widest since August 2006 as markets gear up for super December.

Vahva kasvukaan ei muuta EKP:n elvytyskantaa * Tänään julkaistaan euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit marraskuulta * Draghi alleviivasi EKP:n halua lisätä elvytystä * Euro heikkeni Draghin kommenttien myötä

Jan Hurri: Suomea patistaa nyt IMF: ensin kasvu, sitten kuriTalSa
Sitkeästä talousanemiasta kärsivä Suomi tarvitsee nyt kipeämmin talouskasvua kuin julkisen talouden tasapainoa ja velkasääntöjä. IMF neuvoo hallitusta korjaamaan talouspolitiikan suuntaa.

Die Welt: ”Tämä ei ole Etelä-Euroopan maa – Tämä on Suomi, ja syy on euron”US

Terroristien kuva paljastaa seuraavan sukupolven terroristien isät ja äiditProfessorin ajatuksia

Kommentti: Terrorismia saa ja pitää pelätäIS
Naiiviudesta on pakko luopua. Mahdollisiin terrori-iskuihin pitää varautua, sillä siten voidaan säästää ihmishenkiä, kirjoittaa Ilta-Sanomien päätoimittaja Ulla Appelsin.