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Monday, November 9

9th Nov - ECB signals dovish

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The indispensable European The Economist
Angela Merkel faces her most serious political challenge yet. But Europe needs her more than ever

Internal EU Documents: How the Benelux Blocked Anti-Tax Haven LawsSpiegel
Internal European Union documents seen by SPIEGEL clearly show how Luxembourg's government, under the leadership of Jean-Claude Juncker, sought to use tax breaks to attract companies to the country. European parliamentarians want to know more.

External imbalances within the Eurozone: The Dutch disease explanationvox

Exclusive: ECB rate setters converge on December deposit rate cutReuters
A consensus is forming at the ECB to take the interest rate it charges banks to park money deeper into negative territory in December, four governing council members said, a move that could weaken the euro and push up inflation.

Tusk: Germany must do more on migration – Politico
Passports to paradise – Politico
Germany's balanced budget not at risk due to refugees, says Weidmann – Reuters
5 reasons relocating refugees is a nightmare – Politico

BoE’s dovish Inflation Report points to very gradual policy normalization – Pictet
How might EU countries react to Cameron’s letter? – Open Europe
Cameron Warns EU Not to Ignore British Renegotiation Demands – BB
Cameron's EU Demand Letter Just Deepens His Domestic Dilemma – BB

Upbeat employment report: a December hike seems likelyPictet

Onto The Next Question Tim Duy
The debate is shifting. It is soon to be no longer about the first rate hike. Fed officials, the question is shifting from whether they should go at all to whether they waited too long. 

Great Graphic: ISM DivergenceMarc Chandler

Adair Turner: The Devil's in the Debt View / BB

FX: consistency checkNordea
The Fed December hike back on the table, what now? The Markets should show if that is right - by risk appetite. EM FX, commodity FX should regain, if Fed hike is to happen.

Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic PerformanceIMF
Country casesIMF

Emerging market slowdown and drop in trade clouding global outlookOECD
OECD warns of global trade slowdown, trims growth outlook againReuters
OECD Trims Global Growth Forecast on Emerging-Market SlowdownBB

G20 finalizes tools for ending 'too big to fail' banksReuters
Banking Giants Learn Cost of Preventing Another Lehman MomentBB

Chinese trade disappoints, clouding economic outlookReuters

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks End Week With Whimper

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Edge Lower; Chinese Data in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Looking to S&P 500 for Guidance

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Spain’s Catalan regional parliament set for independence roadmap…obstacles mean that the process is unlikely to succeed * ECB officials tell Reuters that there is consensus for deposit rate cut, while QE options still in discussion

Euro rates updateNordea

October decision a close call, Fed December hike probability at 70 percent * USD a touch weaker vs G10, but stronger vs Asian FX * This week a lot from China, Euro-area GDP and Nordic inflation

Morning MarketsTF
There was divergent Asia-wide fallout from Friday's upbeat NFP number, with stocks buoyed in Tokyo, but falling in Sydney. Meanwhile Beijing's decision to allow the resumption of IPOs gave equities markets a welcome boost. Today's economic calendar is on the thin side with the most prominent item being Eurozone investor confidence at 0930 GMT.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar's Gains Pared to Start Week, but Yen Remains Soft

Daily ShotTF
Friday's US jobs report came in ahead of even the most fevered expectations, but now that markets have had a chance to digest the data, what effect will this have on the Fed, on equities and on the US normalisation process?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron to formally present EU renegotiation demands tomorrow in letter to Tusk * FAZ: Germany happy to abide by most of the British EU reform proposals * German government in new crisis over Syrian refugee status * Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Economic case for UK staying in EU “pretty compelling” * Greece still at odds with creditors over bad loans ahead of Eurogroup meeting * EU plans to extend Russian sanctions for additional six month * Portuguese left-wing parties set to oust PM-designate in confidence vote tomorrow * Catalan separatist parties set to defy Spanish government over independence process

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Shaky governments — COP21 countdown — Air ISIL

Emerging Markets Slide On Strong Dollar; China Surges On Bad Data, IPOs; Futures Falter


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar will look to follow through on last week’s gains on the heels of the stellar October jobs and earnings data. With a December Fed rate hike more or less in the bag, the focus will shift to the pace of Fed hikes rather than the timing of liftoff.

From the FloorTF
The Fed's got the greenest of green lights and it would take a "disaster" to prevent a move on interest rates in December.

Euroalueen kasvu pysyy epävakaana * Työllisyysluvut olivat mannaa Fedille * USA:n työllisyysraportti veti perjantaina korot nousuun sekä USA:ssa että euroalueella * Luvassa on melko hiljainen viikko

Jan Hurri: Kolme kriisiä yhtä aikaa – tämä on vasta alkuaTalSa
Hallitus kompuroi sote-sotkussa, mutta se on vain yksi osa karua kokonaiskuvaa. Suomella on yhtä aikaa vastassaan talouden kriisi, työmarkkinoiden kriisi ja nyt vielä politiikan kriisi. Tämä voi olla moniongelmaisen euro-Suomen uusi normaali.