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Wednesday, November 18

18th Nov - Fed minutes lock Dec hike

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Speech Yves Mersch: Keynote speech Euro Finance WeekECB

IMF's hindsight says it was right to advocate QE in the EurozoneThe Guardian
Larry Elliott: An important International Monetary Fund paper looks at how the eurozone should have responded to the problems that affected five of its members

Schaeuble Says He'd Prefer Higher Euro-Area RatesBB

Hollande’s emerging war strategy – Politico
France Intensifies Assault on Islamic State at Home and Abroad – BB
How the Islamic State makes its money – WaPo
The 12 people and ideas that ruined Molenbeek – Politico

5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s October Meeting Minutes – WSJ
Democratizing the Fed or Politicizing Monetary Policy? – Marc Chandler
Summers: Inflated Inflation Numbers Mean Fed Can Wait Even Longer – PIIE

FOMC October meeting minutes – FED
Minutes: Fed Is All-In For December Hike (But Depends On Data) – ZH
Hilsenrath: December Liftoff Still A Go, But Flight Path Won't Be Steep – ZH
Fed Minutes Stress Potential for December Liftoff – BB
"Most participants anticipated conditions could be met by next meeting" – Bill McBride
Fed officials again flag December; see smooth rates liftoff – Reuters

FX: the Fed and the post-liftoff dollarNordea

Macroeconomic and Strategic Scenario for 2016: Key takeawaysPictet
In 2016, we forecast global economic growth of 3.3%, slightly better than in 2015. This will be a ‘goldilocks’ environment (not too hot, not too cold), that allows continued supportive monetary policy.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Close Flat After Rally Falters

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Pull Back; Fed Minutes in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Investors Turn to Fed Minutes for Liftoff Clues

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Rising energy and core prices push up US inflation…providing some comfort to the Fed to hike rates in December * Germany’s ZEW shows mood among investors improving

Euro rates updateNordea

EUR/USD close to fresh 7-month low; oil prices close to 3-month lows * Fedspeak in focus today * Global yields should rise more on inflation * Commodity FX rather resilient to recent price drops

Morning MarketsTF
Risk sentiment has retreated following last night's German bomb scare and reports of gunfire against French police as they hunt for suspects in Friday's terrorist attacks on Paris. Today's calendar is fairly sparse save for a US housing print that could signal the economy's reaction to an interest rate hike in December.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Awaiting Fresh Cues, the Greenback Consolidates Gains

Daily ShotTF
US industrial production fell for a third consecutive month, undershooting expectations, and the Chinese economy may be growing more slowly than official data indicate. But economic sentiment has improved in Germany, as shown by the ZEW survey, against expectations for a weaker reading.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron: There’s “a compelling case” to act against IS in Syria * German Interior Minister: Syrian passport found near Paris bomber could have been planted * Hammond warns of “very negative impact” of Brexit and pull factor of benefits for EU migrants * New poll: 76% want to scrap free movement but only 30% say it makes them more likely to vote to leave the EU * France set to win reprieve from EU deficit rules after Paris attacks * European Commission warns Italy, Austria and Lithuania over 2016 budget plans * Number 10: Legal brake for UK Parliament over EU laws not part of renegotiation plan * Osborne to lead Treasury assessment of EU membership * Fewer than 70,000 refugees found jobs in Germany over the last year * Greek bailout funds expected to be released tomorrow * Dutch Government considers limited Schengen zone * Rubio: US needs to respect Britain’s sovereignty when it comes to EU referendum * New Romanian government wins vote of confidence

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
The Belgian intelligence gap — Energy Union report card

Global Stocks Tread Water After Two Consecutive Terrorist Scares; Oil Rises, Industrial Metals Tumble


FX UpdateTF
The FOMC minutes tonight are the critical focus for USD traders as we watch for signals regarding the path of rate hikes after the likely December move. Meanwhile, expectations are nil for tonight’s Bank of Japan, meaning, of course, a very low bar for surprise.

From the FloorTF
Fears of more terror attacks are reverberating across markets and keeping sentiment on the negative side of the risk equation.

Hyödykkeiden hintojen lasku tuntuu Etelä-Amerikassa * USA:n inflaatio otti askeleen kohti Fedin tavoitetasoa * Norjan talouskasvu odotettua parempaa * Saksan rahoitusmarkkinat aiempaa luottavaisempia tulevaisuuden suhteen

Aki Kangasharju: Suomen kilpailukyvyn puutetta aliarvioidaanHS
Kilpailukyvyn puutetta tuskin aliarvoituRoger Wessman

Erkki Liikanen: Euroalueen talous ja EKP:n rahapolitiikkaSuomen Pankki
Eduskunnan talousvaliokunnan julkinen kuuleminen 10.11.2015

EU -takuut, missä mennään?Risto Volanen
Sauli Niinistö: Suomi sitoutunut turvatakuisiin täysimääräisestiVerkkouutiset