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Tuesday, November 17

17th Nov - After Paris, Belgium in Focus

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The IMF’s analysis of the Irish bailoutvox
The IMF, together with CEPR and the Central Bank of Ireland, put on a conference that drew lessons from Ireland’s bailout package titled “Ireland: Lessons from its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop”. This column summarises the contributions by Eichengreen, Fatás and Schoenmaker, as well as panel comments by Christine Lagarde, Benoît Coeuré, Michael Noonan, and Valdis Dombrovskis.

Finland: Article IV Consultation – IMF
Finland: Selected Issues – IMF

France triggers EU ‘mutual defence clause’ – but what is it? – Open Europe
Paris Terror Uniting East Europe Against Merkel's Refugee Plan – BB
Security, Refugees and European Fiscal Policy – Marc Chandler

Why are terrorists drawn to Belgium? – The Guardian
Police hit Molenbeek, area at heart of Belgium's jihadist threat – CNN
The Brussels borough becoming known as Europe's jihadi central – The Guardian
Jihadis Next Door Is a Way of Life for Ghetto Belgium Neglected – BB
Brussels raids: Police hit Molenbeek, area at heart of Belgium's jihadist threat – BBC
Why Brussels is a terrorism hotspot – Politico
The myth of the terrorist mastermind – Politico

Improved economic expectations in Germany and in France – Nordea
German Investor Confidence Rises on Robust Domestic Economy – BB
U.K. Inflation Rate Stays Below Zero for a Second Month – BB
Carney's Interest-Rate Communication Has Loads of Fans – BB

Global: Fed - hiking without hiking?Nordea
Is the Fed trying to pull off a hawkish hike, or does it plan a dovish hike? The asset implications are completely different. Even if it is the latter, will the Fed be able to pull off such a stunt, or will Mother Earth(!) try to prevent it?

Yellen urges rejection of rule-based monetary policy proposalReuters

CPI increased 0.2% in October – Bill McBride
U.S. consumer prices rise, may further support rate hike views – Reuters
Consumer Prices in U.S. Increase for First Time in Three Months – BB
Consumer Prices in U.S. Picking Up Excluding Food, Energy – BB
What the Latest Inflation Numbers Mean for the Fed – WSJ
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in October – Bill McBride
U.S. industrial output falls for second straight month – Reuters
Manufacturing in U.S. Climbs for First Time in Three Months – BB
U.S. inflation turning corner; factory output rises – Reuters

The Effects of Wage Moderation: Can Internal Devaluations Work?iMFdirect

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rally, Along With Oil

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Soar, Helped by Gains on Wall Street

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Is Now the Time to Buy the Dip?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Eurozone inflation revised higher, but ECB still set for further policy easing in December * Japan’s weak GDP growth, suggests further easing ahead

Euro rates updateNordea

Rising Euro-area core inflation; US and UK today too? * European yields tumble on safe-haven demand * EUR/USD at lows not seen since April

Morning MarketsTF
Wall Street resolutely rejected fears that Friday's terror attacks in Paris would have long-lasting market effects, and the higher US close overnight sent a wave of relief across Asian markets on Tuesday after some trepidation on Monday.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Greenback Flexes Muscles

Daily ShotTF
Defying the hit seen in equity futures following Friday's attacks in Paris, markets broadly rallied yesterday with USD strength serving as the most prominent theme.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
France triggers EU ‘mutual defence clause’ after Paris attacks * Schengen and refugee quotas under strain following Paris attacks * Conservatives for Britain co-chairs to formally recommend Brexit * Petition forces euro exit debate in Finnish parliament * New German poll puts AfD third for the first time * New Polish Interior Minister hits out at European Parliament President Martin Schulz * Greece strikes deal with lenders, paving way for new aid disbursement

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Military and political responses to Paris attacks

Global Stocks Soar As Dollar Spot Index Hits Record High; Oil Declines


FX UpdateTF
EURUSD was smacked to new lows overnight after fresh dovish rhetoric from the ECB’s Praet late yesterday. Focus today switches to sterling and whether it can maintain its surprising strength across the board.

From the FloorTF
Dollar strength has returned with a vengeance and the euro is firmly on the back foot ahead of the European Central Bank December 3 meeting that could well see more policy easing.

Britannian EU-epävarmuus pysyy vielä sivuroolissa * EURUSD painui matalimmalle tasolleen sitten huhtikuun puolivälin * Britannian inflaatio pysyttelee alhaisena * Manner-Norjan kasvu on hidastunut todennäköisesti entisestään

Neuvo Saksalle: Pakolaiset eivät ratkaise väestön ikääntymistäTalSa
Saksan hallitusta talouspolitiikassa neuvova asiantuntijoiden ryhmä katsoo, ettei turvapaikanhakijoilla ratkaista maan väestön ikääntymiseen liittyviä ongelmia.

Seuraava Kreikka-paketti on velka-armahdusTalSa
Ylivelkaisen Kreikan seuraava tukimuoto on alustavien lupausten mukaan osittainen velka-armahdus. Sen kustantavat todennäköisesti Suomi ja muut euromaat. Suomenkin Kreikka-vastuut kasvaisivat, vaikka hallitusohjelman mukaan ei pitäisi. Siksi tiedossa on myös silmänkääntötemppuja.

Ranskan sotaelvytys Antti Ronkainen