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Friday, November 13

12th Nov - Migrant crisis spins

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The euro was pointlessFT
The euro had already failed to meet the expectations of its architects before the crisis. Sharing currencies was unnecessary for economic convergence, if not actively harmful. From CER conference.

That Sinking FeelingNew Direction
New Direction’s flagship magazine, first edition, critical towards the euro

The growing intergenerational divide in EuropeBruegel
During seven years of economic crisis, the intergenerational income and wealth divide has increased in many European Union countries. This paper reviews the pension reforms implemented by several countries and it provides policy recommendations to address the intergenerational divide.

The Fifth Element in the Autumn Economic Forecasteuinside
The European Commission’s first attempt this year’s at analysing the effect of the demographic factor on EU economies in the short term. Moreover, the Commission is making the next step by placing the issue of the refugee crisis’ effect on the labour market and economy in general at a central spot in its autumn economic forecast

Brussels plans deposit guarantee fund by 2024FT

Greece Comes to a Standstill as Unions Turn Against TsiprasBB

Euro-Area Industrial Production Falls 0.3%, More Than Forecast – BB
Euro zone production falls more than expected in September – Reuters

5 Things to Watch in Eurozone’s Third-Quarter GDP – WSJ

Political uncertainty, but low systemic risk – Pictet
The saga is far from over – Open Europe
In Limbo as Finance Minister Evokes Ghost of Greece – BB
Change of government puts the country firmly in uncharted territory – Europp

German U-turn on Syrians: Merkel’s attempt to calibrate to reality – Open Europe
Discord in German government, Syrian refugees to be deported – The Telegraph
Sweden Imposes Temporary Border Controls Amid Refugee Crisis – BB
EU Leaders Court Turkey in Bid to Stem Flow of Refugees – BB

Exclusive: ECB mulls buying debt of cities and regions – sources – Reuters
ECB Isn't Committed to More Easing Next Month, Coeure Says – BB
Speech Mario Draghi EU-parliament 12-Nov – ECB
Draghi Says Inflation Weakening as December Decision Nears – BB
Euro Weakens as Draghi Boosts Speculation of Deposit-Rate Cut – BB
Mario Draghi hints at expansion of QE – FT
Daniel Gros: ECB’s QE could backfire – Project Syndicate

Goldman Maps Fed's "Flight Path", Sees Steeper Trajectory For RatesZH

Executive Summary to G-20 meeting IMF
In an environment of increased uncertainty, three significant transitions weigh on the global outlook: (i) the Federal Reserve is poised to normalize monetary policy while other major currency areas will likely be easing further; (ii) China's economy is experiencing a needed moderation as it embarks on a historic and multi-year rebalancing of its growth model; and (iii) the decade-long commodity super cycle appears to be over. At the same time, international migration has become a pressing economic issue for both sending and receiving countries, particularly in light of the ongoing refugee crisis.

Fed should wait with liftoff to see firm inflation signs: IMF noteReuters

Perspectives November 2015Pictet
The markets’ pole star is fading

May 1994 - What Happened When the Fed Last Diverged With EuropeBB
Fed may increase key rate in December as ECB adds stimulus * Citigroup, Credit Suisse see dollar rising as policies split

Negative Interest Rates the New Normal Next Time Economies SlumpBB
The peaks and troughs of rates have fallen over three decades * Deutsche Bank suggests ECB may never lift deposit rate above 0

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Continue Drift Downward

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Central Bankers in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Six Reasons One Strategist Thinks a Pullback is Due

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
US rate hike liftoff in December, followed by a slow pace of rate hikes * EUR/USD likely to reach parity in the first half of 2016 * China data confirm gradual slowdown, divergence industry and services

Euro rates updateNordea

Fedspeak to signal December rate hike? * German 2-year reaches a record low * USD weaker as Fed pace is questioned

Morning MarketsTF
Last week's nonfarm payrolls print blew past expectations and changed expectations for a December Federal reserve rate hike from "possible" to "near-definite". But was the blowout print just an anomaly? Today's unemployment claims release will allow investors a closer look at the US employment situation.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Firms, though Strong Jobs Lifts Aussie, Awaiting Fed-Speak

Daily ShotTF
Chinese industry remains under pressure, and the slowdown in production is hitting already woefully low prices of industrial metals, such as aluminium and zinc, as well as container shipping rates. In the Eurozone, Portugal's rate spread to Germany has widened to the broadest gap since the Greece debt crisis.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Sweden re-imposes border controls as EU pledges up to €3.6bn to African countries * German Interior Minister defends U-turn on Syrian refugees * Spanish Constitutional Court suspends Catalan independence process, but injunction falls on deaf ears * Portugal may lose eligibility for ECB bond-buying programme * US Congress has access to secret TTIP documents while German Bundestag is cut off * Commission eyes jointly funded Eurozone deposit guarantee scheme * ECB single supervisor makes renewed push to harmonise Eurozone bank standards * Greece edges towards release of next round of bailout funds * Draghi says signs of turnaround in inflation are weakening


FX UpdateTF
AUD squeezed sharply higher on the latest erratic payrolls number out of Australia overnight, taking AUDUSD to key resistance and AUDNZD to new local highs. Today, the focus will be on the gamut of Fed big wigs out speaking on the economy, policy, and "FX Transmission".

From the FloorTF
Gold's not lacking physical buyers but the flight of paper investors ahead of next month's US Federal Reserve rate decision when the expectation is for a rate hike is determining the direction of price.

Juanin hyväksyminen reservivaluutaksi on arvovaltakysymys * Tänään on luvassa Fedin johtajien puheenvuoroja * Britannian työmarkkinat ovat erinomaisessa vedossa * Raakaöljyn hinta laski 46 dollarin alapuolelle