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Thursday, March 10

10th Mar - ECB overdelivers - but disappoints

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Making the economic case for BrexitPolitico

Time for a regime change in FrankfurtCER
In recent years, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy has been half of what is necessary, two years late. To get eurozone inflation back to its ‘close to 2 per cent’ target, the ECB needs to be much bolder.

What to look for when three German states vote on SundayReuters
Merkel Threat Lurks in Black Forest as Refugees Sway VotersBB

Spain Deserves a GovernmentView / BB

5 Questions About the ECB’s Meeting – WSJ
More of the same likely, but ECB needs new tricks – TF
Deutsche Bank’s Draghi day menu – FT
How To Trade Tomorrow's ECB Meeting – ZH
Deal with the root problem: tackle non-performing loans – Europp
The ECB’s next move – ABN AMRO
Preview: ECB Policy Meeting – WSJ
Draghi Faces Day Of Communication Reckoning – ZH
Deutsche: Most Challenging Central Bank Meeting In Living Memory – ZH

Live Commentary – WSJ
Live Commentary – FT

Monetary policy decisionsECB
Draghi Delivers The Bazooka – ZH
Bunds, Euro Tumble As Stocks, Credit Soaring – ZH
ECB takes rates deeper into negative territory – Politico
The ECB’s Surprise Easing Just Sent the Euro Sharply Lower – WSJ
Bank Stocks Jump Higher After ECB Announcement – WSJ
European Central Bank to Expand QE, Cuts Interest Rates Further – BB
ECB cuts rates, increases assets buys more than expected – Reuters
Europe roars approval as ECB pulls out the bazooka – Reuters
Next Stop on ECB QE Adventure: $980 Billion Company Bond Market – BB
ECB cuts rates to new low and expands QE – FT
Corporate Bonds Get ECB Boost – WSJ
Draghi Delivers, but Now What? – Marc Chandler

Introductory Statement to the press conferenceECB
Macroeconomic projections March 2016 – ECB
Press release new series of TLTRO II – ECB
CSPP added to APP – ECB

Draghi Blew It - Euro, Stocks Retrace Bazooka Bounce – ZH
Last hooray or new fireworks? ECB announces new stimulus package – Carsten Brzeski
Draghi: ECB Done for Now on Rates – BB
ECB pulls out all stops with rate cuts, stimulus boost – Reuters
ECB: From a stick to a carrot – Nordea
Europe Presses the Panic Button – View / BB
The ECB: Whatever Happened to Whatever It Takes? – WSJ
ECB Unveils More Stimulus — Market-Watchers React – WSJ
El-Erian: More Central Bank Surprises – View / BB
Two experiments for the price of one – Scott Sumner
5 takeaways on the ECB’s bigger bazooka – Politico
The ECB’s big bazooka just got even bigger – WaPo
Who read the ECB right – Politico
ECB delivers, but markets hard to satisfy – Handelsbanken

The Fed should watch data, not calendarView / BB

Austerity past and futureSimon Wren-Lewis

China to ease commercial banks' bad debt burden via equity swapsReuters
China Proposes Nationalization Of Insolvent CompaniesZH

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Markets await the ECB today; rate cut from RBNZ; oil close to USD 41 * ECB to boost risk sentiment? * Surprising rate cut in New Zealand * FX market split on today’s ECB action

Morning MarketsTF
Asian stocks outside of China rose on Thursday with help from gains overnight on Wall Street and firmer crude oil. In the countdown to today's European Central Bank meeting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand stunned with a 25 basis points rate cut to 2.25% and a very dovish message which sent the kiwi dollar tumbling and crushed NZ market rates.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
ECB Meeting Promises Fireworks

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Take Two

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Cameron: Economic shock of Brexit not a price worth paying * EU Ministers declare Balkan Route permanently closed as controversial Turkey deal edges closer * Poland faces full blown constitutional crisis after government refuses to publish Constitutional Tribunal ruling striking down law restricting its own powers * Icelandic PM: Key EU decisions increasingly determined by only one country * Further ECB stimulus expected to aid flagging Eurozone economy * German exports drop unexpectedly * Sarkozy: Schengen is dead, and Germany dealt it a fatal blow

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Polish constitutional crisis — May tax relief be with you

All Eyes On Draghi: Markets Unchanged, Poised To Pounce Or Plunge


FX UpdateTF
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand pulled out all the stops to crush the kiwi with a surprise 25 basis points rate cut and dovish guidance. Now the focus switches to the European Central Bank and whether Mario Draghi can impress a skeptical market with policy innovation.

From the FloorTF
A surprise rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand saw the kiwi drop by 1% versus the USD overnight while traders await today's ECB meeting for an update on monetary policy and the state of European banks.

EKP tiukassa paikassa * Startup-into tarvitsee lisää polttoainetta ja suuria ajatuksia * Raakaöljyn tynnyrihinta palasi päälle 40 dollarin * Valtionlainakorot tekivät eilen korjausliikkeen ylöspäin

Kansan palaute päättäjille: laittakaa Suomen kilpailykyky kuntoon!EVA
Suomalaiset ovat havahtuneet talouskasvun tärkeyteen. Kansalaisia turhauttaa yhteiskunnallisten uudistusten jumittuminen ja päätöksentekijöiden saamattomuus. Eliitti saa kansalta moitteita saamattomuudesta, käy ilmi EVAn vuoden 2016 Arvo- ja asennetutkimuksesta.

Helikopteriraha – vihonviimeinen elvytyskeino?T&Y
Valtion menojen suora keskuspankkirahoitus eli helikopteriraha olisi oikein toteutettuna varmasti tehokas elvytyskeino, mutta Saksa ei tule hyväksymään EU:n sopimusten muuttamista sen sallimiseksi. Toistaiseksi käyttöön jäävät EKP:n velkakirjaostojen laajentaminen ja koronalennusten jatkaminen.

Matti Tuomala: Miksi fiskaalinen elvytys ei kelpaa?PT

Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset tammik. -1,8% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto tammik. -2% YoY – Tilastokeskus