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Tuesday, March 22

22nd Mar - Preholiday lull interrupted by terror

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Causes of the Eurozone Crisis: A nuanced view vox
Hindsight is a wonderful thing. In the midst of a crisis, it is of course very hard to understand causality. This column uses the benefit of hindsight to present a nuanced view of the causes of the Eurozone Crisis as seen by members of the German Council of Economic Experts. To prevent the same crisis happening again, the Maastricht Treaty needs to be revitalised to enhance the future stability of the Eurozone and relieve the ECB of its role as crisis manager.

No love for the EU or immigration, but what are the alternatives?Open Europe

Brexit Risks Rising Marc Chandler

Portugal rolls back austerity, how far can it go?Reuters

BofA Explains Why The ECB Will Be Forced To Buy Junk BondsZH

Further ECB easingABN AMRO
We think further ECB monetary easing is on the cards given weak growth and the prospect for inflation undershooting the goal. Further ECB stimulus will likely take the shape of more QE. Meanwhile, eurozone consumer confidence fell further in March

Oil prices and euro area consumer energy pricesECB

France Composite PMI – Markit
Germany Composite PMI – Markit
Eurozone Composite PMI – Markit
Euro area flash PMIs surprised upwards – Nordea
Euro zone businesses end first quarter on a higher note – Reuters
March Ifo Business Climate Index Rises – CESifo
German Ifo surprises in March – Carsten Brzeski

Milton Friedman's 'Helicopter Money' Is Looking Less CrazyView / BB

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed hawks on parade, BOJ Nakaso cooing, weaker JPY * Euro-area PMIs and German Ifo to improve * BOJ Nakaso said further rate cuts are a possibility * Fed officials talk up probability of April hike(!)

Morning MarketsTF
The UK chancellor is fighting for his political life today and a poor performance will leave his leadership hopes in shreds. Ostensibly it's about last week's budget, but Brexit is the real battleground here, and sterling bulls should beware.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Terrorist Strike in Brussels Causes Market Angst

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Change that tune!

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Brussels explosions leave at least 13 dead say Belgian media * Oxford Economics: Benign Brexit would require accepting high levels of immigration and deep trade agreement with EU * New delays in implementing EU-Turkey deal * Ed Miliband to urge Labour voters to turn out and back ‘Remain’ * Deputy speaker of Italian parliament: UK has shown a country can increase its political weight without being in the euro * AfD on 13% nationwide while Germany experiences record-high net migration in 2015 * German Finance Minister suggests scope for flexibility on pension reforms in Greece * Bundesbank President warns helicopter money “would tear gaping holes in central bank balance sheets” * EU Commission to propose forcing big companies to disclose more tax details * Corruption in member states costs EU £800bn a year, according to latest study

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Franco-Belgian feelings — Erdoğan slams EU — Timmermans talks

Global Markets, S&P500 Futures Fall After Brussels Bombings


FX UpdateTF
Some evidence overnight suggesting that conspiracy theories centered on coordinated intervention to weaken the US dollar has been oversold. Still waiting for the post-FOMC follow through in USD selling that may just not arrive.

From the FloorTF
Today's European session occurs in the immediate aftermath of several explosions in the Belgian capital. Media are confirming multiple casualties and injuries. Risk sentiment has plunged lower in the wake of the attacks.

Turhia toiveita * Euroalueen luottamus viittaa kohtuulliseen kasvuun * Öljyn hinnan kipuaminen ja Fedin jäsenten puheet vetivät USA:n korot nousuun * Fedin Lockhart painotti huhtikuun koronnoston olevan pöydällä

Pankkien tila ja ongelmaluototRoger Wessman

Mamu sisään, mummo ulos – todellinen sairaus on talous eikä rasismiTyhmyri