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Monday, March 7

7th Mar - Migration talks

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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John Weeks: Why We Need To Rewrite The Maastricht RulesSocial Europe
If the economic policy coming out of Brussels and Berlin had pretension to economic justification the Maastricht rules and the so-called Six Pack would collapse under the weight of ridicule. To the contrary, they remain central to the dysfunctional policies that hold most EU countries and especially the euro zone in continual stagnation.

The Great Scandinavian DivergenceFrances Coppola

Europe’s Banks Find a Dumping Ground for Their LossesWSJ
Everything from bad acquisitions to penalties is being put into ‘corporate centers’

The ‘doom loop’ that ties Italian banksFT

Schäuble to Portugal: Listen to EU warningsPolitico

Transcript: Andrew Marr Show with Boris JohnsonBBC

EU set to change the rules for refugees – Politico
New Fences on the Old Continent – Spiegel
Interview with Bavarian Governor Seehofer: 'The Country Is Divided' – Spiegel
Balkan route closed, EU to declare – Politico
Crisis? What migration crisis? – Politico
EU-Turkey summit: high-stakes and unpleasant choices – FT
Migration summit: live – Politico
Trading with Turkey as crisis looms – The Economist
Turkey raises the stakes on refugee deal – Politico
Turkey demands extra €3 billion of EU help on refugees – Politico
Eurojust report raises doubts about EU-Turkey migration deal – Politico
Is the End of Transiting Migrants Near? – euinside

ECB Preview: Easing Mix in Sight as Draghi Aims to Over-Deliver BB

ECB Preview: Another 'menu' of easing, but will it be enough?Danske Bank

Draghi Aims ECB's Killer Blow in 11th Round Versus DeflationBB
Survey shows most economists see QE boost at March 10 meeting * Investors have already priced in further cut to deposit rate

Fed Experts Deliver the Bad News: Productivity Slump Is for RealBB
Slowdown means 2015 GDP was $3 trillion lower than otherwise * Smaller efficiency gains not a mirage of mis-measurement

Exclusive: U.S. watchdog to probe Fed's lax oversight of Wall StreetReuters

State of PlayTim Duy
Fed will hold steady next week. Key FOMC participants are shifting in a dovish direction. The financial market volatility, which induced clear tightening in financial conditions, bolstered the Brainard’s arguments. Despite solid incoming data, the Fed will find it necessary to tread cautiously in the months ahead.

BIS Quarterly Review Press Release BIS
BIS Quarterly Review, March 2016BIS
BIS questions negative rates, central bank stimulus  WSJ

HY Credit Spreads Have Never Been This High Outside Of A RecessionZH

FX: the EUR channelNordea
Will lower core inflation mean ECB turning against EUR? More short covering likely into the ECB meeting. GBP up in most scenarios. EM/commodity FX major breaks starting - up after a pause.

Threat of a synchronised downturn & G20 complacencyPrime Economics

March Macro Update: Recession Risk Remains RemoteThe Fat Pitch
The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

The strong case against independent central banksSimon Wren-Lewis

Nothing is permanentEric Lonergan
On helicopter money and the irrelevance of permanence

[video 85 min] The Genius of EconomicsYoutube
Thomas Piketty, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz

Media attention and investment decisionsvox
Correlations between media attention and capital flows to investment vehicles are well established. Media attention does drive these investment decisions, even if no new information is conveyed. Financial intermediaries are aware of this effect and exploit it.

Special Report: China National People's Congress 2016 – BB
China cannot escape the reckoning that a debt binge brings – The Economist
China: more flexible growth target for 2016 – Nordea
China: growth target confirmed, capital outflows ease – Danske Bank

All Eyes on the ECB; Brexit Spat Claims BCC Director General

Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Rates jump on strong payrolls, ECB to guide this week, NOKSEK back to parity * Focus on Fed’s Fischer today and on ECB on Thursday * USD rates governed by Europe this week * Two ECB cuts not enough to weaken the EUR

Morning MarketsTF
Last week's strong showing by the commodities sector continues to strengthen on the back of rising crude and ore prices but the US China and Europe are still coping with slowing growth and weak inflation.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar and Yen Post Gains to Start the Week

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Looking backward, looking forward

Daily ShotTF
Job creation in the US exceeded expectations and Civilian emplyment ratio is approaching 60% again. A strong USD however endangers exports. Rate hike is seen to take place in November.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Selling Pens and Proving Algorithms

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Gove: The EU is a “sink hole of innovation” which has facilitated the re-emergence of the far right across Europe * Schäuble: You’re either in the single market or you’re not * Turkey set to agree to mass deportations of illegal migrants from Europe at emergency summit * Fewer Italians trust the EU than Brits, new poll shows * Spanish Socialist leader fails to be voted in as PM, triggering further uncertainty * Slovakia’s ruling party finishes ahead in general election but loses majority in parliament * Mervyn King: In or out of EU, UK will be influenced and affected by what happens in the Eurozone * Immigration-sceptic AfD finishes third in Hesse ahead of crucial German regional elections * EU-IMF disputes threaten to derail Greek bailout

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
The real Turkey deal — How Austria saved Germany’s bacon

Futures Lower On Lack Of China Stimulus; Oil Squeeze Continues; Gold Spikes Ahead Of ECB


FX UpdateTF
The key movers this week are likely to be the commodity currencies where volatility has picked up notably on the resurgence in commodity prices and the euro as we await the heavily anticipated ECB meeting this Thursday.

From the FloorTF
Expectations for this week's ECB meeting may once again be getting out of hand risking a repeat of the December 3 fiasco. Meanwhile China's five-year plan sets GDP growth at a 6.5-7% range boosting hopes that the current commodities-led rally can extend.

Draghilta tulossa mittava kevennyspaketti * USA:sta saatiin erinomaiset työllisyysluvut, mutta palkkakehitys oli pettymys * Kiina tähtää 6,5 - 7,0 prosentin kasvuun * Kiinan ulkomaankauppa supistuu edelleen

Mika Pantzar: Tarvitaanko tieteen dopingvalvontaa?KL
Kieltäydyin todistamasta matemaattisesti, että autoveron alentaminen lisäisi valtion verotuloja, kirjoittaa tutkimusjohtaja Mika Pantzar Arjen kartalla -kolumnissaan.