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EUROPE
John Weeks: Why We Need To Rewrite The
Maastricht Rules – Social
Europe
If the economic policy
coming out of Brussels and Berlin had pretension to economic justification the
Maastricht rules and the so-called Six Pack would collapse under the weight of
ridicule. To the contrary, they remain central to the dysfunctional policies
that hold most EU countries and especially the euro zone in continual
stagnation.
Everything from bad
acquisitions to penalties is being put into ‘corporate centers’
The ‘doom loop’ that ties Italian banks – FT
Schäuble to Portugal: Listen to EU warnings – Politico
BREXIT
Transcript: Andrew Marr Show with Boris Johnson – BBC
MIGRATION
CRISIS
EU
set to change the rules for refugees – Politico
New
Fences on the Old Continent – Spiegel
Interview
with Bavarian Governor Seehofer: 'The Country Is Divided' – Spiegel
Balkan
route closed, EU to declare – Politico
Crisis?
What migration crisis? – Politico
EU-Turkey
summit: high-stakes and unpleasant choices – FT
Migration
summit: live – Politico
Trading
with Turkey as crisis looms – The
Economist
Turkey
raises the stakes on refugee deal – Politico
Turkey
demands extra €3 billion of EU help on refugees – Politico
Eurojust
report raises doubts about EU-Turkey migration deal – Politico
Is
the End of Transiting Migrants Near? – euinside
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Preview: Another 'menu' of easing, but will
it be enough? – Danske
Bank
Draghi Aims ECB's Killer Blow in 11th Round
Versus Deflation – BB
Survey shows most
economists see QE boost at March 10 meeting * Investors have already priced in
further cut to deposit rate
UNITED STATES
Slowdown
means 2015 GDP was $3 trillion lower than otherwise * Smaller efficiency gains
not a mirage of mis-measurement
State of Play – Tim
Duy
Fed will hold steady
next week. Key FOMC participants are shifting in a dovish direction. The
financial market volatility, which induced clear tightening in financial
conditions, bolstered the Brainard’s arguments. Despite solid incoming data, the
Fed will find it necessary to tread cautiously in the months ahead.
OTHER
FX: the EUR
channel
– Nordea
Will
lower core inflation mean ECB turning against EUR? More short covering likely
into the ECB meeting. GBP up in most scenarios. EM/commodity FX major breaks
starting - up after a pause.
Threat of a synchronised downturn & G20
complacency – Prime
Economics
The
macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish
growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is
unlikely.
On helicopter money and
the irrelevance of permanence
[video 85 min] The Genius of Economics – Youtube
Thomas Piketty, Paul
Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz
Correlations between
media attention and capital flows to investment vehicles are well established. Media
attention does drive these investment decisions, even if no new information is
conveyed. Financial intermediaries are aware of this effect and exploit it.
CHINA
Special Report: China
National People's Congress 2016 – BB
China cannot escape the
reckoning that a debt binge brings – The Economist
China: more flexible
growth target for 2016 – Nordea
China: growth target
confirmed, capital outflows ease – Danske
Bank
REGULARS
WSJ City – WSJ
All Eyes on the ECB;
Brexit Spat Claims BCC Director General
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Rates jump on strong payrolls, ECB
to guide this week, NOKSEK back to parity * Focus on Fed’s Fischer today and on
ECB on Thursday * USD rates governed by Europe this week * Two ECB cuts not
enough to weaken the EUR
Morning Markets – TF
Last week's strong showing by the
commodities sector continues to strengthen on the back of rising crude and ore
prices but the US China and Europe are still coping with slowing growth and
weak inflation.
Daily Market Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Dollar and Yen Post Gains to Start
the Week
Daily Market Comment
– Macro
Man
Looking backward, looking forward
Daily Shot – TF
Job creation in the US
exceeded expectations and Civilian emplyment ratio is approaching 60% again. A
strong USD however endangers exports. Rate hike is seen to take place in
November.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
Selling Pens and Proving
Algorithms
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
Gove: The EU is a “sink
hole of innovation” which has facilitated the re-emergence of the far right
across Europe * Schäuble: You’re either in the single market or you’re not * Turkey
set to agree to mass deportations of illegal migrants from Europe at emergency
summit * Fewer Italians trust the EU than Brits, new poll shows * Spanish
Socialist leader fails to be voted in as PM, triggering further uncertainty * Slovakia’s
ruling party finishes ahead in general election but loses majority in
parliament * Mervyn King: In or out of EU, UK will be influenced and affected
by what happens in the Eurozone * Immigration-sceptic AfD finishes third in
Hesse ahead of crucial German regional elections * EU-IMF disputes threaten to
derail Greek bailout
Brussels Playbook – Politico
The real Turkey deal —
How Austria saved Germany’s bacon
US Open – ZH
Futures Lower On Lack Of China
Stimulus; Oil Squeeze Continues; Gold Spikes Ahead Of ECB
Frontrunning – ZH
The key movers this week
are likely to be the commodity currencies where volatility has picked up
notably on the resurgence in commodity prices and the euro as we await the
heavily anticipated ECB meeting this Thursday.
Expectations for this
week's ECB meeting may once again be getting out of hand risking a repeat of
the December 3 fiasco. Meanwhile China's five-year plan sets GDP growth at a
6.5-7% range boosting hopes that the current commodities-led rally can extend.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Draghilta
tulossa mittava kevennyspaketti * USA:sta saatiin erinomaiset työllisyysluvut,
mutta palkkakehitys oli pettymys * Kiina tähtää 6,5 - 7,0 prosentin kasvuun *
Kiinan ulkomaankauppa supistuu edelleen
Mika
Pantzar: Tarvitaanko tieteen dopingvalvontaa? – KL
Kieltäydyin
todistamasta matemaattisesti, että autoveron alentaminen lisäisi valtion
verotuloja, kirjoittaa tutkimusjohtaja Mika Pantzar Arjen kartalla
-kolumnissaan.