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Wednesday, March 30

30th Mar - Yellen's flip-flop still confuses

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Dan Steinbock: The End Of Europe As We Know It?ZH
As the Eurozone is amid secular stagnation, its old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro.

Nordic OutlookDanske Bank
Denmark: Job growth is strong but GDP growth is very weak, which is a bit of a mystery * Sweden: GDP growth has surpassed all expectations but there is a limit to how much more growth domestic demand can support * Norway: Oil slowdown hits Norway hard but domestic demand keeps wheels spinning * Finland: Reforms should help growth recover but the near-term outlook is dull

No ‘absurd’ negative interest rates: ECB board memberPolitico

El-Erian: Yellen Says What Markets Want to Hear – View / BB
Kocherlakota: Ask the Next President About the Fed – View / BB
Is the Fed a flip-flopping bully or a dynamic dove? – TF

EM FX: Momentum changeNordea
EM FX has recovered the losses from January and February. Momentum has changed and is not negative for the first time in almost two years. The BRL and the RUB are among the best performing EM currencies this year. We believe flexible commodity currencies will outperform. The CEE currencies have also performed decently this year, but key risks cloud the outlook. The CNY is likely to continue underperforming slightly, but the real EM troubles of 2016 will be the managed commodity currencies.

Japan Economic Outlook: Abenomics has yet to succeedNordea
Despite the aggressive first arrow of monetary policy, Abenomics has so far failed to deliver a self-sustained growth recovery. We have lowered our growth forecasts for this year and the next as the outlook remains clouded by external as well as domestic challenges. With monetary policy becoming less effective and fiscal policy tightening, structural reforms, especially in the labour market, are crucial.

2016 Triennial Survey of Foreign Exchange and OTC Derivatives MarketsBIS

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

German CPI inflation in focus today * USD weaker across the board after übersoft remarks from Yellen * Very little progress in Swedish wage negotiations so far

Morning MarketsTF
The dollar is taking cover and nursing its wounds after Fed chair Janet Yellen ended once and for all the talk of a move in April on interest rates. The dollar is heading for its worst monthly performance in nearly five years.

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
When doves fly

Daily ShotTF
Yesterday's dovish speech from Federal reserve chair Janet Yellen represents an interesting shuift in the Fed's perception of its own mandate.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Nearly half of voters think Cameron should step down if Remain campaign fails * Bank of England warns EU referendum is the “most significant” short term risk to financial stability but that banks would be able to withstand Brexit shock * Poles back EU membership but 50% want restoration of intra-EU border controls * Greek opposition calls for snap elections as IMF signals potential for some short term budget flexibility due to migrant crisis * Germany’s populist AfD party sees drop in support in new Forsa poll * EU-India summit to begin today

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
India comes to town — Belgian blame game — Should police have used WhatsApp

Global Stocks Soar After Yellen Admits Global Economy Is Much Weaker


From the FloorTF
This morning's trade is largely a reflection of Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's dovish remarks yesterday with risk assets soaring as the greenback endures another body blow.

Norjan keskuspankki joutuu nollakerhoon * Fedin pääjohtaja Yellen painotti globaaleja riskejä * Ei hintojen nousua Saksasta * Yellenin varovaiset kommentit ajoivat dollaria selvästi heikommaksi