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Tuesday, March 29

29th Mar - Yellen's dovish speech

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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A proposal to revive the European Fiscal FrameworkBruegel
The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives, more transparent, easier to implement and which have a higher potential to be complied with.

Germany to press for entry-exit registry in Schengen area – Politico
Corruption costs EU ‘up to €990 billion a year’ – Politico
Might the Brussels attacks increase the chance of Brexit? – Open Europe
Molenbeek shows why ISIL thrives in Europe – Politico

Scepticism over ECB’s TLTRO II programme is misplacedPictet

Southern European Bond Issuers are the Early Winners of New ECB QE WSJ

Banks Say No to Funds From Flagship ECB PolicyWSJ
Three months before the launch of a revamped lending program, the current platform is seeing poor takeup

Hans-Werner Sinn: Europe’s Emerging BubblesProject Syndicate
The European Central Bank’s recent policy moves have shocked many observers. But they are just the latest in a string of efforts by the ECB to address the fallout of the collapse of a massive bubble – efforts that have served only to fuel more bubbles.

The limits of Draghi’s ‘no limits’Nordea
It is misleading to argue the recent experiences in the Euro area are having considerable stimulus effects. In fact, there are many negative consequences, which have only started to increase. It does not have to be that way.

Monetary developments February 2016ECB
Credit figures confirm our 2016 euro growth forecastPictet

US Labour Market MonitorDanske Bank

If the Fed wants more inflation, it should say soThe Economist

On CredibilityTim Duy
The Fed should be playing the long game. In my opinion, that means pursuing the “hard” credibility of choosing the path most likely to meet their mandate over the long run. This may require sacrificing some “soft” credibility along the way.

The problem with profits The Economist
Big firms in the United States have never had it so good. Time for more competition

Janet Yellen: The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy – FED
Excerpts from the speech – Bill Mc Bride
Yellen Crushes Recent Hawkishness, Unleashes Fresh Bout Of Dovishness – ZH
Yellen Sends Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Oil Surging – ZH
Yellen: Central bank should move ‘cautiously’ in raising rates – WaPo
Goldman Sachs: "A Less Confident Take On Rate Normalization" – ZH

Why only some credit booms end in a crisisvox
Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock.

The One Economic Question Nobody Is AnsweringWSJ
Central banks running out of fuel, but nobody else can do the job, so central banks due to become even more unconventional.

Deutsche Bank warns on global trade, futility of currency warsZH

Oil, Inflation Expectations, and CredibilityTim Duy
Oil prices influencing inflation expectations? The recent correlation is likely spurious.

Martin Enlund: EURUSD - business as usual?Nordea
The Fed has done its best to propagate confusion recently. Why the Fed chose to walk the dovish path in March is crucial for the medium-term outlook for the currency. For now, we are in the sell-on-rallies camp regarding EUR/USD. Inflation will be higher than the Fed expects while US growth worries are too elevated.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Yellen and lots of key figures on this week’s calendar; US data disappointments * German yields heading lower * GBP with a rebound

Morning MarketsTF
It was a mixed day on Asian markets today. A cautious mood prevailed in Japan where traders will keep a careful eye on Janet Yellen's speech today. In China the Shanghai Composite lost ground. Meanwhile the big four banks weighed on Australia's S&P/ASX200; the benchmark index tumbled 1.57% today.

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Is the SPX in a secular bull market?

Daily ShotTF
There is an interesting and quite clear correlation between US monetary base expansion with the S&P500 performance. However that does not mean causality. The important question is where will things go from here? Data from the Wall Street Journal shows that market participants remain cautious and are buying protection.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Libya warns it will ‘open the floodgates’ unless more support is given to help stem tied of refugees * Spain warns of consequences for Gibraltar if Britain votes for Brexit

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
12 worst Belgian mistakes — Blame games — Brexit brawls

Futures, Oil Dip On Stronger Dollar Ahead Of "Hawkish" Yellen Speech


FX UpdateTF
The US dollar managed a significant comeback rally after the recent dovish FOMC meeting but yesterday’s soft inflation numbers and the prospects of a dovish Yellen later today have tamed the US dollar bulls for the moment.

From the FloorTF
Today will bring fresh signals from the Federal Reserve as Janet Yellen is giving a speech. It is widely expected that she will reiterate her dovish stand and markets are set for this.

Fed nostaa korkoja kesäkuussa * Fedin Yellenin tämän päivän kommentteihin kiinnittyy paljon huomiota * Ruotsin vähittäismyynnin kehitys jatkaa voimakasta kasvuaan * USA:sta saatiin datapettymyksiä

Korruptio maksaa Euroopalle jopa 990 miljardia euroa vuodessaTE