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Thursday, March 17

17th Mar - EU summit on migration

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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German state elections and state of the partiesEuropp
Secret to Merkel’s survivalPolitico

European banks: The truth is in the numbers – progress in 2015DB Research
Despite headwinds from slow economic growth, low interest rates and tighter regulation, European banks’ recovery continues. In 2015, banks’ core business with the private sector returned to growth, revenues rose and provisions for loan losses declined again. The sector has become more profitable and resilient. Challenges remain aplenty, but European banks are definitely heading in the right direction.

Norway Cuts Rates, Hints At NIRP, QE ZH

BOE: ‘Brexit’ May Hit Spending, Rate Kept at 0.5% - BB

Enough QE wiggle room for the ECB ABN AMRO

Europe draws red lines on Turkey migration deal – Politico
Turkey Presses for EU Concessions as Price for Refugee Halt – BB
5 hurdles to an EU-Turkey migration deal – Politico
EU's Refugee Plan Would Correct Past Mistakes – View / BB

Fed expects lower path for rate hikes – ABN AMRO
Concerned Fed sends very dovish message to the markets – Danske Bank
What are US wages telling us? – ABN AMRO
Mark Gilbert: The Fed's Credibility Question Won't Go Away – View / BB
Yellen steers Fed with cautious hand, despite hints of inflation – Reuters
Second rate hike in June remains the most likely scenario – Pictet
When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious – Marc Chandler
A Look Inside the Minds of the FOMC – Aleph Merkel
The Fed’s Credibility Conundrum – WSJ

Bonds: Bulls feed on dovesNordea
Jan von Gerich: The ECB acted very dovishly but Draghi failed to support the action with soft words. The Fed compensated by sounding very dovish. The bottom line is that bonds are again looking at performance potential at least in the near term. Longer out, the risks that the Fed is seen falling behind the curve have increased. If these risks are realized, it will be ugly.

USD: All hope abandon ye who enter hereNordea
Martin Enlund: The Fed has been the main driver of global disinflationary developments since mid-2014. Now the market is likely to increasingly suspect the Fed has chosen to be behind the curve, changing the financial implications materially. The consequences from a Fed opting to be behind the curve is not only dollar-negative, but also largely reflationary. Oft-followed correlations could break down or even switch signs. We are no longer strategic USD bulls.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Markets cheer the dovish Fed, USD and rates sharply down, more cuts from Norges bank ahead * Bank of England to remain on hold - Norges Bank to cut rates * USD rates lower on dovish Fed * USD sinks as the Fed marks to market rates

Morning MarketsTF
Yesterday's statement from the Federal Open Market Committee was as shocking as it was dovish leaving USD traders and markets at large wondering what they could have been thinking.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Drop Extends Post-Fed, Stocks, Bonds and Commodities Rally

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
March madness

Daily ShotTF
The Federal Reserve is the only major central bank being kind of hawkish. But it changes its tone as the disparity to other CBs becomes a challenge. Markets turned into risk-on mode as a reaction to a falling likelihood of a US rate hike.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Osborne accused of politicising OBR after citing its Brexit warning * EU set to offer Turkey the resettlement of no more than 72,000 Syrians * Die Zeit political editor: We need Britain in order to secure EU reform * Swiss EU Ambassador warns of limitations of the ‘Swiss model’ * Former BCC Chief blasts EU in first appearance since being ousted over support for Brexit * MPs call on Obama not to “interfere” in EU referendum

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Migration summit edition — Merkel keeps insider trust

Another Fed "Policy Error"? Dollar And Yields Tumble, Stocks Slide, Gold Jumps


FX UpdateTF
Despite most factors pointing to the need for a more hawkish stance on interest rates the Fed waxed as dovish as possible at its FOMC meeting signalling no rush to move on rates. The USD weakness on the back of this meeting is likely to continue as the market ponders the Fed's reasoning.

From the FloorTF
The dollar is down commodity currencies are up core yields are higher Asian equities are ahead and their European counterparts joined the rally on opening. All this on the heels of last night's shock Federal Reserve statement in which chair Janet Yellen unleashed her inner dove issued a de facto no confidence vote in her own policy and threw in her lot with the gang of nervous cautious central bankers currently presiding over global monetary policy.

Pelko hiipi Fedin puseroon * Fedin varovaisuus säikäytti dollarin heikommaksi ja veti USA:n korkoja alaspäin * Norjan keskuspankki keventää tänään * USA:n inflaatio kipuaa ylöspäin

EU löysi kitkerän maahanmuuttolääkkeenTalSa
Risto Pennanen: EU:n ja Turkin alustava sopu pakolaisaallon pysäyttämiseksi on hyvä väliaikaisratkaisu.