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Wednesday, March 9

9th Mar - Last Day before ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Multipliers from Eurozone periphery austeritySimon Wren-Lewis

Eurogroup Gave In to the IMF on Greek Debt Reliefeuinside

European Semester 2016 Home – EC
Assessment of progress and results of in-depth reviews – EC
Commission highlights financial failings – Politico
Fall in EU economic imbalances – Politico

Economics of the UK’s EU Membershipvox
The upcoming vote on the UK’s membership of the EU has sparked a vibrant debate on topics ranging from sovereignty and sterling to migrants and the military. This column discusses evidence on the economics of Britain’s EU membership drawn from a recent conference where both sides of the debate were represented.

The BoE and the Brexit debate Tony Yates

Europe Shouldn't Ignore Turkey's Contempt for Democracy – View / BB
Editorial: At Least the EU and Turkey Are Talking – View / BB
Is the EU-Turkey refugee deal legal? – FT

As The Euro Time Bomb Ticks Away The ECB Turns DesperateSocial Europe

ECB Faces Difficult Balancing Act to Revive Eurozone InflationWSJ
Central bank risks destabilizing banks if it pushes interest rates further below zero

ECB Poised to Ease May Reap Havoc on European Lenders: ChartBB

Don’t Get Your Hopes Up for the ECB to Spark a Rally in StocksWSJ
Whatever the European Central Bank does on Thursday, a market rally requires more easing than investors expect

Reality Check for the Global EconomyPIIE

The movie plays on: A lens for viewing the global economyBIS
Slides from Feb-10 presentation

Thoughts on the Chinese Export PuzzleMarc Chandler

What if the helicopters took off?The Economist

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Profit-taking; BoE debate Brexit; Norwegian stagnation * BoC and RBNZ meetings today * Global rates drop further despite higher oil prices * EUR higher as markets beware of not-so-dovish Draghi

Morning MarketsTF
A stark warning on global markets from an IMF bigwig has helped force equities into retreat as the market also absorbs the implications of China's shocking trade figures.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Euro Pushes Lower Ahead of ECB

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
20 Questions

Daily ShotTF
Weak Chinese trade data dampened sentiment across markets knocking industrial metals and oil prices lower again. In the UK The Sun reported that the Queen backs a "Brexit". And in the US small business sentiment stays on a downward path productivity declines and the Treasury curve flattens reflecting bearishness towards US growth.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Bonuses, Taxes, Weed and Gangs

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU leaders alienated by Merkel-Turkey deal as Chancellor faces backlash amongst closest political allies * Carney criticised by Leave campaign after describing Brexit as “biggest domestic risk” to UK financial stability * Buckingham Palace dragged into EU referendum debate after supposed pro-Brexit comments by the Queen * German authorities brace for new wave of migrant-crisis related crime and radicalism * Schäuble: No need to discuss Greek debt relief now * Polish President takes aim at European Commission and Council of Europe as constitutional stand-off intensifies * Hollande faces day of protests against labour market reform plans * ECR group expels two MEPs from Germany’s populist AfD party * MEPs delay vote on ‘critical’ counter terrorism legislation

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Driving the MEPs — No Turkish delight — What Brexit plans?

S&P Futures Jump As Rebound In Commodities Helps Defense Of Key Support Trendline


FX UpdateTF
The Bank of Canada is on tap for this afternoon with little in the way of anticipation there while the market could be highly reactive to RBNZ guidance and even more so to whatever the ECB brings or doesn’t bring at tomorrow’s pivotal meeting.

From the FloorTF
Markets traded nervously on Wednesday in the countdown to the European Central Bank's governing council meeting on Thursday with traders itching "to see the whites of Draghi's eyes" amid a feeling that another disappointment could lie just around the corner.

EKP:n kokous määrittää euron askelmerkkejä * Englannin keskuspankki varoitti Brexit-riskeistä * Öljysektori painaa Norjan talouskasvun nollaan

EU-komissio varoittaaYLE
Suomi hoitaa talouttaan rimaa hipoen ja suosituksista piittaamatta. EU-komissio on lähettämässä Suomelle paimenkirjeen, jossa se varoittaa velan kasvusta ja moittii, ettei Suomi ole saanut toteutettua uudistuksia.