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Saturday, March 19

19th Mar - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Fed Sparks "QE Trade" As Stocks, Bonds, Gold Soar

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar WSJ

EU Week AheadWSJ

Week AheadBB

U.S. Housing, Apple, Presidential Race
Wall St Week AheadReuters
Eyes on the dollar with stocks out of the hole

Weighing the Week AheadDash of Insight

EcoWeekBNP Paribas
Global: First, do no harm Last week the ECB shifted its objectives. This week the Fed changed its monetary policy horizon. Policy coordination in all but name. China: Priority on stabilising growth The government presented its policy goals for 2016 and the priorities of the 13th Five-Year Plan during the annual National People's Congress. The economic slowdown deepened in the first months of the year, and the main short-term priority is to stabilise growth thanks to new stimulus measures. US: Safety first The Fed decided to leave rates unchanged, but it actually eased its policy. Economic data are pretty well oriented, but risks from abroad are mounting. In the vicinity of the ZLB, the Fed chose not to take the chance. Spain: Deadlocked Spanish political parties are still struggling to form a new government nearly three months after the general elections. New elections will be held in late June if Congress fails to elect a new President of the Government by May 2nd.

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Week Ahead: Fed back in the spotlight Nordea

Macro Weekly: The Fed and the dollarzoneABN AMRO
The Fed kept interest rates on hold this week and revised down its view on the pace of interest rate hikes going forward. Wage growth has been subdued and demand has been lacklustre, but crucially the Fed is worried about global developments. The Fed is the nearest thing we have to a global central bank and many vulnerable economies around the world are part of the ‘dollarzone’. We continue to think the Fed rate hike cycle is on pause; meanwhile we have adjusted our scenario for the ECB and EUR/USD.

Weekly Focus: Central banks to provide life support Danske Bank
Global central banks have been dovish across the board lately and have provided life
support to financial markets * Risk markets are getting support from a turn in regional US business surveys pointing to a lower probability of US recession * The risk of a systemic crisis has eased, as the ECB has included corporate bonds in the purchase programme and a dovish Fed is giving support to commodities and emerging markets * The hunt for yield is set to flatten the euro yield curve * Central banks have ended the currency war as policy divergence is becoming less.

Strategy Danske Bank
Major central banks have sent a common message of keeping policy rates ‘lower for longer’ * The coordinated move has supported global risk sentiment amid a still fragile global recovery * The ECB and Fed’s moves will support risky assets by the ‘hunt for yield’ * Currencies disobey their central bank masters – we still look for a higher EUR/USD longer term.

Week AheadHandelsbanken
Eurozone PMI to stop declining * Sweden higher sentiment expected in March surveys

FX Weekly: The dots hit the dollarABN AMRO
Downward adjustment in Fed’s dot plot weighed on the dollar… and we have adjusted our EUR/USD forecast upwards. USD/JPY: Downside risk towards 110. Norges Bank cut rates as widely expected. EM FX recover after the Fed.

Speculative PositioningMarc Chandler

Speculators Pile into Sterling and Take Profits on Long Aussie Positions

FX OutlookMarc Chandler

The Greenback Remains Technically Vulnerable

FX 4 Next Week TF
The most recent FOMC meeting may have given USD longs a start but the consequent rise in GBPUSD could be growing overextended.

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch
Equities rose for a fifth week in a row. In many important ways, the current uptrend does not fit the profile of a bear market rally. That means that further gains lie ahead and a return to the February low is unlikely. On a shorter timeframe, there are several compelling reasons to expect a retracement of recent gains in the days ahead.