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Monday, March 14

14th Mar - Merkel slides in elections

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Did the EU Sell Its Soul to Turkey?euinside

Putin's $50 Billion Oil Cache Gives Russia Luxury to Ignore ECBBB

Merkel Faces Triple Challenge as States Vote Amid Refugee Crisis – BB
What do Sunday’s German state elections mean for Merkel? – Reuters
German voters batter Merkel over migrant policy – Reuters
Merkel's CDU Loses Support in Elections Swayed by Refugee Crisis – BB
5 takeaways from Merkel’s election drubbing – Politico

Angela Merkel's CDU suffers German state election setbacks – BBC
A 'wake-up call' for Merkel, media and politicians say – Reuters
Divisions Over Merkel’s Refugee Policy Laid Bare in Votes – BB
Germans Turn to Trump-Style Politics in Challenge to Merkel – BB
Merkel: “AfD a problem, not a threat” – Politico

The ECB and the End of Central-Bank Stimulus – WSJ
European Bank Credit One of the Winners From ECB Stimulus – WSJ
Making ECB corporate bond buying ‘fairer’ and better targeted – Tony Yates
The problem with ECB corporate bond buying – Tyler Cowen
Münchau: EC has lost the plot on inflation – FT

Davies: The end of negative rates, but not central bank alchemy – FT
Keohane: The ECB, liquidity fear and an expandable shopping list – FT
Gilbert: ECB Paints Lipstick on Euro's Banking Pigs – View / BB
Traders: New TLTROs will have most effect on the economy – Reuters
What will be on the ECB’s shopping list? – ABN AMRO
Quantifying ECB’s stimulus – an extra 0.3% boost to inflation – Pictet
No rate hike now but door to be left open for April or June – Nordea
Goldman: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride
El-Erian: What the Fed Will and Won't Do This Week – View / BB
Fed to sit tight on rates at March meet, hint at hikes to come – Reuters
Fed set to keep door open for a June hike – Danske Bank
How To "Pre-Trade" FOMC Days – ZH
FOMC Preview and Review of Projections – Bill McBride

EUR rates and FX: DescentNordea
While the market certainly disagreed, the ECB’s message implies the central bank means business. Yesterday’s market action is unlikely to be durable, and we expect both rates and the euro to start falling again before long. We are still not calling for the long end of the German yield curve to fall into negative territory, however. We postpone our parity call for EUR/USD into mid-2017.

The Reason Behind Oil's Sudden JumpBB
Traders have shifted attention to falling production from their earlier preoccupation with rising inventories. That switch may have helped put a floor under oil prices, as the outlook for non-OPEC supply deteriorates.

Five Central Banks Meet as Monetary Policy is DowngradedMarc Chandler

Aurelija Augulyte: FX: “risk on” must go onNordea
Many FX crosses near key technical levels, maybe some correction in equities is due? But beyond the very short term, the picture is still quite bullish, and inflation is a big threat to USD.

Goldman Warns About Overlooking "The Largest Macro Market Risk"ZH

Deutsche Bank: One Hawkish Fed Statement Away From A Sharp Re-PricingZH

Japan: Time to Load a Fourth Arrow—Wage IncreasesIMF
The Macro Take: ECB digestion rumbles into Fed Wednesday

Ignored for Years, a Radical Economic Theory Is Gaining ConvertsBB
From discipline's margins, new theory challenges deficit taboo * Calls for fiscal help are growing as post-2008 recovery lags

US Morning WSJ
The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan issue policy decisions this week following a major stimulus announcement by the European Central Bank on Thursday

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Risk-on in Asia; EUR/USD and oil steady ahead of busy central bank week * Central bank week: Fed, BoE, BoJ on hold, Norges Bank to cut rates * Risk-on sentiment dominated bond markets on Friday * Commodity currencies the big winners recently

Morning MarketsTF
The fundamental ethos that has sustained the European ideal for more than 50 years looks increasingly fragile as Germany's voters turned their back on Angela Merkel's refugee policy with large swathes falling into the embrace of the hard right.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Dollar Firmer to Start the Week

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
The rise of the fringe

Daily ShotTF
The ECB's decision to cast a negative-rate lifeline to the Eurozone banking sector is doomed to backfire and undermine investor confidence instead: this has already happened in Japan. Meanwhile further problems for the EU are looming after Angela Merkel was clobbered in Germany's regional elections and out of China come more signs that the authorities are stepping up their fiscal policy stimulus programme.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
CDU and SPD suffer losses in German regional elections as populist AfD makes gains *
Osborne: EU-Canada free trade deal not appropriate model for UK * Independent on Sunday: Obama to make pro-EU membership intervention in London next month * Austria piles pressure on Berlin to limit asylum applications

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Merkel debacle — Brexit fever spreads — France rethinks reform

Central Bank Rally Fizzles: Equity Futures Lower As Attention Turns To "Hawkish Fed" Risk


FX UpdateTF
Market nerves are still ragged after the earthquake set off by last week’s ECB meeting as we stare down no fewer than five central bank meetings this week. First up is tonight’s BoJ meeting where anticipation of a follow-up policy move has faded.

From the FloorTF
Crude prices have surged dramatically from their late-January lows with the net-long position in Brent crude having reached a record high. Given the state of certain fundamental drivers however Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen says a downside move looks likely.

Fedin koronnostot jatkuvat kesäkuussa * Tällä viikolla luvassa keskuspankkien kokouksia * EURUSD ja eurokorot tekivät perjantaina korjausliikkeen alaspäin * Tervetuloa Nordea Economic Outlook –webinaariin

Miksi saksalaiset säästävät, britit eivät?Roger Wessman

Rakenteellinen jakovara poisSK
Työeläkevarat eivät ole julkisia varoja sanan varsinaisessa merkityksessä, kirjoittavat Elina Lepomäki ja Raimo Sailas.