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Sunday, March 13

13th Mar - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Draghi-Dip-Buyers Send Stocks, Crude To 2016 Highs; Gold Slammed

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

Week Ahead – ZH

5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar WSJ

EU Week AheadWSJ
Migration, EU Summit, Tax Rulings

Week AheadBB
Fed, BOE, Delegate Bounty, U.S. Housing

Wall St Week AheadReuters
As market rallies back, investors turn eyes to the Fed

Weighing the Week Ahead – Dash of Insight

EcoWeekBNP Paribas
Eurozone The ECB hits hard: ECB unveiled new easing measures and placed emphasis on unconventional tools. While the European Commission dithers, Draghi gets out the big guns. The sense of urgency is not the same in Brussels and Frankfurt. US Risk management: The latest economic indicators are mostly well oriented and financial markets are calmer, a mix that looks like opening the window for the Fed to hike. Still, data-dependency is also about the outlook, and, in the end, the decision lies in FOMC members’ appraisal of risks.

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Week Ahead: Fed back in the spotlight Nordea
The week ahead sees central banks steal the spotlight with the Fed, BoE, BoJ and SNB announcing interest rates just as the markets digest the recent ECB policy changes. Focus will be on the FOMC meeting (Wed). We anticipate a wait-and-see attitude with the April and June meetings kept in play for a rate hike. Expect BoE, BoJ and SNB to all keep monetary policy on hold. Finally, remember to keep an eye on the US inflation figures, also released Wednesday.

Macro Weekly – Is this going to work, Mr. Draghi?ABN AMRO
The ECB delivered another set of measures to stimulate growth and push up inflation. The debate about whether the ECB is on the right track is getting increasingly polarised. We must bear in mind that this is an experiment never seen before. The outcome is uncertain. Nevertheless, a lot of the criticism of ECB policy cannot be supported by evidence. We think the latest set of measures will have a positive impact on the eurozone economy. January data on industrial production in various eurozone countries has been better than expected. This was also the case in the US, suggesting business conditions in the industrial sector are improving.

Weekly Focus: ECB surprises – what will its colleagues do? Danske Bank
Fed unlikely to change interest rates but may signal more rate hikes are on the way than the market currently expects * BoE unlikely to move on rates, signalling less haste than the US about getting started * Norges Bank to cut 0.25% percentage points due to a slowingEconomy * Chinese industrial production growth to pick up this year, although may not be apparent in the February number * Swedish inflation and labour market data could be on the strong side and lead to a stronger SEK.

Strategy Danske Bank
The ECB has shifted from targeting the exchange rate to supporting the credit/bank lending
channel * The ECB’s policy shift is sensible as negative rates do not appear to have fuelled bank lending, but it remains to be seen how successful the new measures will be * The ECB’s measures are positive for risky assets, particularly equity and credit markets * The ECB’s policy shift supports our long-held view that EUR/USD will head higher in 2016 * The menu of easing measures supports flatter curves in core euro FI.

Week AheadHandelsbanken
China: Bracing for the continued slowdown * Sweden: Higher inflation and unchanged unemployment rate in February * Norway: Norges Bank to cut its policy rate

UK Week AheadHandelsbanken

G10 FX Weekly – Euro higher after the ECB ABN AMRO
ECB delivers but Draghi’s comments push the euro higher. The focus now turns to the Fed and BoJ meetings next week. Stakes are high for the BoJ. AUD and CAD rally; NZD slumps.

Speculative Positioning Marc Chandler
Speculators Cut Long Sterling Exposure While Adding to Long Aussie

FX OutlookMarc Chandler
Greenback's Tone Sours, Sterling may Shine

FX 4 Next Week TF
Bearish EURUSD traders could look at options for a longer-term move to 1.06 * Longstanding soft risk sentiment/low USDJPY trend primed to turn around * EURGBP an option for traders looking to avoid FOMC volatility in the dollar * NZD downside move likely in the wake of central bank currency attack

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch
Equities rose the fourth week in a row, led by continued strength in oil. SPY has now rallied 11% and is back above a key support level and its 200-dma. Breadth momentum during this rebound has been stronger than nearly every bear market rally in the past 16 years. Moreover, despite the large gains, investors remain mostly skeptical. Turbulence during the upcoming March OpX week would be normal, but this week is seasonally bullish. Below, we outline what to look for before assuming the rally has come to an end.