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Tuesday, March 8

8th Mar - ECB in sights

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Merkel Allies Doubt EU Summit Gain as State Vote Losses LoomBB
Setback for German chancellor threatens in three weekend votes * Refugee crisis eludes quick solution as Merkel engages Turkey

How Turkey held the EU for ransom – Politico
Merkel’s ‘one-for-one’ proposals: the next battleground in the crisis? – Open Europe

5 options for post-Brexit trade with Europe – Politico
Carney says neutral on Brexit after praising Cameron’s EU deal in writing – Politico
Carney's `Brexit' Stance Under Fire as BOE Accused of Bias – BB
Johnson Surges, Osborne Drops in Poll on Next U.K. Tory Leader – BB

The ECB May Be Finally Ready To Snap – ZH
These Are the Options Left in the ECB’s Stimulus Arsenal – WSJ
El-Erian: The ECB's Dilemma – View / BB

Adair Turner: Are Central Banks Really Out of Ammunition?Project Syndicate
The global economy faces a chronic problem of deficient nominal demand. Japan is suffering near-zero growth and minimal inflation. But the debate about which policies could boost demand remains inadequate, evasive, and confused.

Jan von Gerich: Bonds: Towards no limitsNordea
As bond yields have fallen ever deeper into negative territory, it has become increasingly clear that the ECB will struggle to fully implement its current bond purchase programme without further changes to the terms of the programme. The removal of the deposit rate as a yield floor for eligible bonds would significantly increase the universe of eligible German bonds, but would probably not change the composition of the actual purchases much at this point.

A Few Things on Our MindsMarc Chandler

We were promised jetpacks and flying cars, and all we got was this lousy chartWaPo

Policy Imperatives for Boosting Global Growth and Prosperity – IMF
IMF Sees Risks From Withdrawing Easy Money Quickly – WSJ
The IMF Is Sounding the Alarm. Is Anyone Listening? – WSJ

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Chinese exports dive, Fischer sees inflation, Brent above USD 40/brl * Chinese exports drop 20.6% underlining the need for local demand * US 10-year lower this morning on China, defying Fischer seeing increasing inflation * JPY stronger, while CHF and NOK went weaker

Morning MarketsTF
Abysmal China export figures for February really ought to have tempered sentiment in markets but the commodities rally is continuing unabated. The worse China does it seems the more likely so the narrative goes will Beijing authorise fresh stimulus.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Greenback Lacks Momentum, While Profit-Taking Weighs on Dollar-Bloc
Daily ShotTF
China once again came with disappointing data but amid the weak CNY a rebound might be in the cards. Commodities already have undertaken that move but have they gone too far?

Matt Levine’s Money Stuff – View / BB

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Merkel throws spanner into the works at EU-Turkey summit by brokering new deal with Ankara * Bank of England to provide additional liquidity around the EU referendum * Hague: Dilemma over Turkey’s EU membership shows need for new model of associate membership * Longworth: EU is incapable of meaningful reform * Germany’s populist AfD party set to pull into three regional parliaments on Sunday * Dijsselbloem: Discussion over Greek debt relief will be on the table “in the near future” * Eurogroup warns Italy and Spain over 2016 budget plans * European Commission to propose stricter rules on posted workers

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Summit stunner — OLAF Chief snared

Bears Exit Hibernation As Rally Fizzles On Dismal Chinese Trade Data; Commodities Slide; Gold Higher


FX UpdateTF
The market mood has turned overnight on the release of Chinese trade data and we wonder whether the recent risk bounce has taken the commodity currencies to unsustainable levels. Elsewhere the greenback looks soft within the G3.

From the FloorTF
A fresh round of poor data out of China has sent risk sentiment scurrying back into the shadows and traders seeking safe-haven assets.

Kiina hengittää elvytyksellä * Raakaöljyn kallistuminen ajoi EURUSD:n nousuun * USA:n korkomarkkinat sulattelivat vielä perjantain vahvoja työllisyyslukuja * Fedin Fischer odottaa inflaation kiihtyvän

Elvytystä voi jatkaa ikuisesti, jos tarvitaanRoger Wessman