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Friday, March 4

4th Mar - Nice US job report, EURUSD rallies

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe’s Refugee Crisis to Worsen with Spring WeatherPIIE
A series of EU summits planned in March must deal urgently with the continent’s migration emergency, and there are no good options. Two distinct plans have emerged, however: Plan A The Turkey Choice and Plan B: The Orban Option.

EU nears agreement with Turkey on refugee returnsPolitico

Brexit ScenariosABN AMRO
Our base case that the UK remains is assigned a 65% chance, while we also present four Brexit scenarios…these depend on how constructive the exit negotiations would be as well as on whether there is wider contagion with rising fears of more EU exits, that could re-ignite the euro crisis.

Life after Brexit: The UK’s options outside the EUvox
In June, UK voters will decide whether to remain part of the EU. This column explores the UK’s options if a majority votes in favour of Brexit. One possibility is for the UK, like Norway, to join the European Economic Area and thereby retain access to the European Single Market. An alternative would be to negotiate bilateral treaties with the EU, as Switzerland has done. All options, however, involve a trade-off between political sovereignty and economic benefits.

A proposal for ending the privileges for sovereign exposures in banking regulationvox
The excessive exposure of banks to sovereign debt continues to threaten the stability of the Eurozone. Based on a recent proposal by the German Council of Economic Experts, this column suggests steps towards severing the sovereign-bank nexus. The loss-absorption capacity of banks could be increased through risk-adjusted large exposure limits and risk-adequate capital requirements.

ECB’s hand may be forced next weekTF
The next ECB meeting to review monetary policy is on March 10 * The Governing Council relies on forecasts prepared by ECB staff * The fall in the oil price will affect these forecasts * A key question is how much further will the inflation projection be lowered

ECB preview: same player, different target, shoot againPictet
The ECB is facing a number of political and technical trade-offs. We expect a comprehensive policy package to be delivered at the 10 March meeting, including some measures specifically designed to support the banking sector. ECB staff projections will be revised lower again, partly reflecting concerns over weaker economic momentum and core inflation. The bigger the ECB’s concerns, the bolder the policy response.

ECB preview: Time to get creative againNordea
More easing at the ECB meeting on 10 March looks virtually certain, but there is uncertainty regarding the measures that will be used. For sure, the fundamentals support the case of further easing and Draghi does not want to repeat the disappointment that took place after the December meeting. We expect to see a more positive market response this time although that will be challenging given the high expectations and the risk that the Governing Council is not ready for any dramatic moves.

Max McKegg: ECB’s hand may be forced next weekTF

Even Negative Rates Won’t Make German Banks Lend To Spanish OnesWSJ

February Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – WSJ
February Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Economists React: ‘Concerns Over Recession Are Overblown’ – WSJ
The February Jobs Report in 14 Charts – WSJ
The Jobs Report's Pay Problem – WSJ
US Jobs Headline Better than Details – Marc Chandler
A positive mix for risk sentiment – Danske Bank
US payrolls up, wages down – ABN AMRO
Payrolls Smash Expectations – ZH
242,000 Jobs, 4.9% Unemployment Rate – Bill McBride
Resilience – no signs of recession – Nordea

Benefits and Costs of Bank Capital IMF

The Mystery Madoff Victims Who Left $2.5 Billion on the TableBB
Offshore feeder funds account for part of the mystery * Experts speculate some customers sought to avoid scrutiny

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Says ‘I’m Not Bearish on Stocks’BB
Ray Dalio: "Don't Trade Against Pros Like Us, You Will Lose... Own Gold"ZH

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
How the Jobs Report Could Bring Forward Rate Expectations

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Stronger CNY, North Korean Nukes on standby, but all eyes on NFP * Continued healthy employment growth in the US? * Stronger CNY ahead of National People’s Congress * North Korea has placed nuclear weapons on standby

Morning MarketsTF
The nonfarm payrolls print later today is dominating the agenda with a weaker dollar looking towards the pivotal print for some support. Those with a stake in this week's commodities boost will hope that the new five-year plan from China this weekend help keeps momentum bubbling along.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
US Jobs Data Awaited, but Barring Significant Surprise, May Not be Key Driver

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Putting it in perspective

Daily ShotTF
With another ECB meeting ahead analysts are asking whether there will be enough bonds left for the expanded QE program - especially in Germany.

Matt Levine’s Money StuffView / BB
Fiduciaries, Vultures and Metrics

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Hollande and Schäuble warn UK’s single market access could be imperilled by Brexit * Tusk warns economic migrants “don’t come to Europe” as EU hopes for breakthrough with Turkey * Germany’s anti-immigration AfD party polls on 19% in upcoming regional election * McDonnell: Labour will be stepping up its EU campaign in the coming weeks *Juncker: Ukraine will not join EU or NATO for quarter of century * New report says proposed EU regulation threatens UK Ports * Switzerland extends free movement rights to Croatian nationals * Fico likely to win third-term in office following anti-migrant campaign * Spanish Socialist leader faces second confidence vote with little hope of being elected PM * Talks between Greece and its lenders set to resume in Athens next week

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Flat Ahead Of Payrolls As Gold Continues Surge After Entering Bear Market


FX UpdateTF
EURUSD consolidated to local resistance levels ahead of 1.1000 before today’s key US jobs data. Elsewhere commodity currencies are on fire on the resurgent commodities theme. Where does that leave the USD in these pairs on a particularly strong jobs report today?

From the FloorTF
The elephant in today's room is the US nonfarm payrolls print and while leading indicators and Saxo macro head Mads Koefoed point to the likelihood of a consensus 195000-plus print equity traders will be looking at wage growth.

Trumbulenssia ilmassa * USA:n viralliset työllisyysluvut julkaistaan tänään * Eurokorot pysyvät paineen alla EKP:n kokouksen lähestyessä * USA:n palvelusektorin työllisyys teki käänteen huonompaan

Eurobarometri Suomi Syksy 2015EC
96% haluaa rajoittaa maahanmuuttoa EU:n ulkopuolelta Professorin ajatuksia