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Saturday, March 5

5th Mar - Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week’s post is here.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Stocks Surge On Biggest Bear Market Short-Squeeze Since Nov 2008

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

5 charts from the week in marketsWSJ

[video 48min] Bloomberg Best: Global Week in Review – BB

US Schedule for WeekBill McBride

Economic CalendarBerenberg

Week Ahead – ZH

5 Things to Watch on the Economic CalendarWSJ

EU Week AheadWSJ
Summit With Turkey, Gazprom, Greece

Week AheadBB
China Congress, Primaries, ECB, Carney

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Stocks almost erase 2016 losses as bulls charge

Weighing the Week Ahead: what election means for marketsDash of Insight

Last week’s economic calendar was the biggest of the year and this week’s is the lightest.  In the absence of important economic news and earnings, where will financial media turn to fill that space and time?  The Presidential election campaign is providing a lot of zest as well as a little substance. I expect financial pundits to be asking: What Does the Election Mean for Financial Markets?
EcoWeekBNP Paribas
Global Structural policy: necessary yet difficult - Synergy with monetary and fiscal policies. Positive impact on potential growth. A slower pace of reforms lately. Germany Inflation back in negative territory - In February, consumer prices were down by 0.2% from a year earlier. However, increased labour costs and prices of imported manufactured goods have kept inflation excluding energy close to 1.2%. France Unemployment declines: the first in a series? - In Q4 2015, France’s unemployment rate declined slightly, by 0.1 points to 10.3%. This decline could possibly mark the beginning of the inversion in the unemployment curve.

Global Week Ahead Scotiabank

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Week Ahead: ECB to deliver Nordea
Next week in the Euro area, focus will be on the ECB Governing Council meeting (Thu). We expect a package of easing measures, strengthening of liquidity operations, a 2-tier system on reserve interest rates and general soft wording. In the US, all eyes will be on Fed Vice Chair Fischer's speech (Mon). We'll be looking for indications about the weight Fischer puts on the recent tightening in financial conditions. In China, the NPC will reveal its growth targets (Sat).

Macro Weekly: The ECB’s March packageABN AMRO
ECB’s meeting next week will very likely deliver monetary stimulus, but there is uncertainty about exactly what it will do. Our base case is a 20bp deposit rate cut coupled by steps to cushion the impact on banks such as a tiered rate system…and a new long-term loan facility for banks. We also expect an increase and extension of QE, which should be facilitated by removing the deposit rate floor for purchases. We think further monetary stimulus is justified and will have a positive effect, though the ECB needs support from other policymakers.

Weekly Focus: Crunch time for the ECB Danske Bank
ECB meeting on Thursday: deposit rate cut by 10bp to -0.4%, a two-tier deposit rate system, signaling the deposit rate could go even lower, frontload QE purchases by EUR20bn per month in spring. Fed speeches on Monday: Vice Chair Stanley Fischer (voter, neutral) and Lael Brainard (voter, dovish) last ones before the next FOMC meeting.

Strategy Danske Bank
Risk markets rally on better US data, higher oil price and policy easing * Investors should consider using rally to buy protection as risks persist * EUR/USD range bound, German
yields could decline further

Week AheadHandelsbanken
Eurozone: ECB to deliver another round of stimulus * China: GDP growth target likely to be lowered at Party Congress * Norway: Regional Network likely will signal zero growth ahead

UK Week AheadHandelsbanken

G10 FX Weekly – Will the ECB deliver?ABN AMRO
Expectations of ECB monetary stimulus weigh on the euro. Improvement in sentiment on better economic data… and expectations of further monetary stimulus (outside US). Yen’s resilience to be temporary

FX OutlookMarc Chandler

Near-term Dollar Outlook is Nuanced

Speculative Positioning - Marc Chandler 

Speculators Add to Short Euro and Sterling Positions

FX 4 Next Week TF
Risk sentiment is back commodity prices are rising and the US economic recovery has stopped coughing in the night with the latest nonfarm payrolls print showing 242000 new jobs. It's not a familar landscape but in many ways it's a welcome one.

Weekly Market SummaryThe Fat Pitch
Equities rose 3% for their third weekly gain in a row, led by small caps and further gains in oil. SPY has now rallied 10%, back to a level that was major support throughout most of 2015. It would be easy to say that the rally ends here, but strong breadth, persistent investor pessimism and strength in other asset classes suggest that further upside ultimately lies ahead. That said, by the end of the week, the advance showed several signs of being overextended; weakness early next week would be normal. In fact, if equities continue with an uncorrected rally, those gains are likely to be given back in the weeks ahead.