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Thursday, May 10

10th May - EU Open: Greece + Spain = GRAIN?

Greece and Spain, the only two games in town. The drop in German yields says it all - safety first and risk-off. Given this environment, it is surprising that the stock markets have held up so well. I think this shows that a chance of money printing by the ECB is being priced in.  See yesterday's 9th May - You Shall Not Leave! and 9th May - US Open: Spain's Bail, Banks Thank for more article links and to get an overview of the two countries. Please follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
News roundup – The Trader
Emerging London Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Press digests by Reuters: FT, WSJ, NYT

Danske DailyDanskeBank (pdf)
Greek uncertainties continue to weigh on market sentiment. Spain takes 45% stake in Bankia, the third-largest lender in the country. Chinese slowdown concerns fuelled by weak import/export numbers 

Morning Briefing BNYMellon
Japanese officials will look upon the renewed sense of crisis in the Euro-area with dismay

Market Preview:
BoE interest rate decision eyed Saxo Bank
European markets are expected to open mixed Thursday. Market participants are keeping a close eye on the Bank of England's interest rate decision plus US initial jobless claims and trade balance data scheduled for release later today.

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
Tyler’s Overnight Summary – ZH (new!)
Commodities Daily: Tug of War – Commodity Trader (new!)
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices (new!)

Europe's Most Parabolic Chart Goes Parabolic-erZH
TARGET2: The number as of April 30? €644,182,010,456.05, which is exactly 25% of German
GDP, and an increase of €28.6 billion in April and €181 billion in 2012 alone!

Greece Updates: Policy FailureCalculated Risk
The next election in Greece will be on June 17th. The outcome is unpredictable and could determine if Greece will leave the euro.

German Central Banks Signals Willingness for Higher Inflation; Catastrophic Uncertainty vs. Catastrophic CertaintyMish’s
The irony is attempts to prevent what is certain (a eurozone breakup), unleashes the very "catastrophic uncertainty" they seek to prevent.

Spain Nationalizes BFA and 45% of Bankia; No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Bank Worth Less Than Zero; Der Spiegel: Germany Fears "Bottomless Pit"Mish’s
The best approach would be for Germany to kiss the euro goodbye immediately. The painful approach will be more bailouts, more austerity, more tax hikes (and no reforms) in the same devastating manner that destroyed Greece. Unfortunately, slow, devastating torture appears to be in the cards.

Europe’s problems multiplyMacro Business
Very nice overview. Overnight the EFSF board agreed to make an additional payment to Greece in order to keep it technically solvent for a few more weeks

Crisis escalates as insurrection breaks German control of EuropeThe Telegraph
The political dam has broken in Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel no longer has enough allies in the club of EU prime ministers to impose her hairshirt agenda. Her methodical plans are disintegrating on every front.

Willem Buiter: how about abolish currency COMPLETELY?Also Sprach Analyst
Having negative nominal interest rates is actually pretty easy.

Look Ahead: Trade Deficit, Unemployment ClaimsCalculated Risk

China reports very weak trade figures for April 2012Also Sprach Analyst