Fast
markets and quite risk-off – I expect more running (sorry, JOGGING) to safety
ahead of the weekend – just in case ECB pulls the plug on Greece’s TARGET
terminal. Bankia's stock in Spain down on rumors of jogging deposits 29% at one point.
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer
– alphaville / FT
Market
Commentary – A
View From My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
European
Financials Hit Six Month Lows; 12 Down Days In A Row
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
Flight
From Risk: Treasury Plummets To Record Low Yield As Gold Surges
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Thank You Mario Draghi For The Best
Year-To-Date Trade –
ZH
The LTRO stigma trade.
The waterproof Mr Hollande – The Economist
Mr Hollande’s promise to fight austerity will
look empty if he sticks with Mrs Merkel in holding Greece to its fiscal
targets—or is forced to impose more austerity at home. Mr Hollande was elected
on a pledge to reduce the French deficit to 3% in 2013, and increase spending
by €20 billion over five years. The European Commission forecasts the 2013
deficit at 4.2%, implying that an extra €24 billion of savings are needed.
Angela’s new partner – The Economist
The French president must learn to dance with a
dominant German chancellor
The euro-zone economy: North and south – The Economist
In practice German inflation may have to be
higher still for rebalancing to work. But a more important snag is the renewed
loss of confidence as the euro crisis worsens. Surveys for April suggest that
the euro-zone economy remains weak. The new uncertainty may hold back
investment and make consumers more cautious, even in Germany.
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
The Greek run – The Economist
The Greek election is in effect a referendum on
whether the country will stay in the euro. It is not completely without hope. A
new Greek coalition which vowed to stick to the rescue deal would in fact gain
some help from the rest of Europe. At the same time, with the promise of a common banking backstop and
some form of Eurobonds, the euro would at last start to look as if it could
survive and the dangers of contagion would fall away.
Who is Responsible for the Greek Tragedy? – Project
Syndicate
Mohamed A.
El-Erian: Greek government, overeager creditors, core EU governments and IMF.
None of them did their job.
 |
| Greek exposure |
Nouriel
Roubini: Postponing the exit after
the June election with a new government committed to a variant of the same
failed policies (recessionary austerity and structural reforms) will not
restore growth and competitiveness.
The president gives up and calls a new
election—but it may yet again fail to yield a conclusive result
Exodus, chapter 1 – The Economist
Two years after the crisis began, a Greek exit
could still cause havoc
In the Picture: Greek exit? – The World
/ FT
Collection
of FT articles. Must-read.
A Run On Greek Banks? – The Big
Picture
Roundup of
bank run stories.
Euro area official sector exposures to Greece
in excess of EUR 290bn Total; EUR 84bn Germany, EUR 63bn France, EUR 55bn
Italy, EUR 37bn Spain
– Mish’s
Includes
calculations with adjusted capital keys.
Roubini’s Greene Says Greek Exit Is `Tip of
Iceberg’ – BB (mp3)
Will ECB Spur an International Banking Crisis? – Pension
Pulse
When I read this article on Wednesday
afternoon, my first thought was "what the hell is the ECB thinking? Are
they trying to cause a major run on Greek banks and an international banking
crisis?"
The time for worrying about the distortionary
impact of slightly higher inflation, or moral hazard effects of quantitative
easing is 20 years after a crisis when things have been stabilised and
researchers, policymakers and the public have got the time and the resources to
research and listen to these theories.
The Forthcoming Hellenic Curse – Mark
Grant / ZH
Almost everyone has focused upon the sovereign
debt, that it is no longer placed at the European banks and that it is resident
at the European Central Bank which is protected by all of the nations in
Europe. This is true, as far as it goes, but the summation does not go nearly
far enough.
OTHER
SocGen: Maybe all the Anglo-Saxon central banks have
done is create the illusion that our sovereigns are more solvent than they are,
and that our budget constraints are really a safe distance away. But I don’t
think they are. And I think the truth gets out eventually.
The ultimate Facebook IPO linkfest: day two – Abnormal
Returns
Here we go again: Another stockmarket rally
peters out – The Economist
All this has left the markets desperately
waiting for a new “hit” from their central banks, in the form of quantitative
easing or additional liquidity support… All this has left the markets
desperately waiting for a new “hit” from their central banks, in the form of
quantitative easing or additional liquidity support.
Merger wave is coming – The Economist
Research suggests that shocks start merger
waves. Some firms are quicker than others to respond to the disruption, or
suffer less damage. This divergence allows the strong to mop up the weak.
(LOL) You know it's May when.. – Macro Man
1) Greece is doing its best to
detract holiday makers and you wonder if you should forgo the deposit on your
Greek Holiday. 2) David Cameron is crowing about how to run Europe…