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Thursday, May 17

17th May - US Close: Running Man

Fast markets and quite risk-off – I expect more running (sorry, JOGGING) to safety ahead of the weekend – just in case ECB pulls the plug on Greece’s TARGET terminal. Bankia's stock in Spain down on rumors of jogging deposits 29% at one point.

 The JP Morgan Losses post has been updated. Remember to follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter and Facebook.

Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  European Financials Hit Six Month Lows; 12 Down Days In A Row
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  Flight From Risk: Treasury Plummets To Record Low Yield As Gold Surges
Morning Briefing (Asia) – BNY Mellon

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Thank You Mario Draghi For The Best Year-To-Date TradeZH
The LTRO stigma trade.

The waterproof Mr HollandeThe Economist
Mr Hollande’s promise to fight austerity will look empty if he sticks with Mrs Merkel in holding Greece to its fiscal targets—or is forced to impose more austerity at home. Mr Hollande was elected on a pledge to reduce the French deficit to 3% in 2013, and increase spending by €20 billion over five years. The European Commission forecasts the 2013 deficit at 4.2%, implying that an extra €24 billion of savings are needed.

Angela’s new partnerThe Economist
The French president must learn to dance with a dominant German chancellor

The euro-zone economy: North and southThe Economist
In practice German inflation may have to be higher still for rebalancing to work. But a more important snag is the renewed loss of confidence as the euro crisis worsens. Surveys for April suggest that the euro-zone economy remains weak. The new uncertainty may hold back investment and make consumers more cautious, even in Germany.

The Greek runThe Economist
The Greek election is in effect a referendum on whether the country will stay in the euro. It is not completely without hope. A new Greek coalition which vowed to stick to the rescue deal would in fact gain some help from the rest of Europe. At the same time, with the promise of a common banking backstop and some form of Eurobonds, the euro would at last start to look as if it could survive and the dangers of contagion would fall away.

Who is Responsible for the Greek Tragedy?Project Syndicate
Mohamed A. El-Erian: Greek government, overeager creditors, core EU governments and IMF. None of them did their job.
Greek exposure

Greece Must ExitProject Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini: Postponing the exit after the June election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies (recessionary austerity and structural reforms) will not restore growth and competitiveness.

Fiddling while Athens burnsThe Economist
The president gives up and calls a new election—but it may yet again fail to yield a conclusive result

Exodus, chapter 1The Economist
Two years after the crisis began, a Greek exit could still cause havoc

In the Picture: Greek exit?The World / FT
Collection of FT articles. Must-read.

A Run On Greek Banks?The Big Picture
Roundup of bank run stories.

Euro area official sector exposures to Greece in excess of EUR 290bn Total; EUR 84bn Germany, EUR 63bn France, EUR 55bn Italy, EUR 37bn SpainMish’s
Includes calculations with adjusted capital keys.

Roubini’s Greene Says Greek Exit Is `Tip of Iceberg’BB (mp3)

Will ECB Spur an International Banking Crisis?Pension Pulse
When I read this article on Wednesday afternoon, my first thought was "what the hell is the ECB thinking? Are they trying to cause a major run on Greek banks and an international banking crisis?"

Europe's woes and policy hedgingMacro Matters
The time for worrying about the distortionary impact of slightly higher inflation, or moral hazard effects of quantitative easing is 20 years after a crisis when things have been stabilised and researchers, policymakers and the public have got the time and the resources to research and listen to these theories.

The Forthcoming Hellenic CurseMark Grant / ZH
Almost everyone has focused upon the sovereign debt, that it is no longer placed at the European banks and that it is resident at the European Central Bank which is protected by all of the nations in Europe. This is true, as far as it goes, but the summation does not go nearly far enough.

Dylan Grice on sovereign comeuppancealphaville / FT
SocGen: Maybe all the Anglo-Saxon central banks have done is create the illusion that our sovereigns are more solvent than they are, and that our budget constraints are really a safe distance away. But I don’t think they are. And I think the truth gets out eventually.

The ultimate Facebook IPO linkfest: day twoAbnormal Returns

Here we go again: Another stockmarket rally peters outThe Economist
All this has left the markets desperately waiting for a new “hit” from their central banks, in the form of quantitative easing or additional liquidity support… All this has left the markets desperately waiting for a new “hit” from their central banks, in the form of quantitative easing or additional liquidity support.

Merger wave is comingThe Economist
Research suggests that shocks start merger waves. Some firms are quicker than others to respond to the disruption, or suffer less damage. This divergence allows the strong to mop up the weak.

(LOL) You know it's May when..Macro Man
1) Greece is doing its best to detract holiday makers and you wonder if you should forgo the deposit on your Greek Holiday. 2) David Cameron is crowing about how to run Europe