An extra
update on mostly Europe, more in US Open post.
Previously
posted:
 |
| Greece. Add IMF, ELA and loans to (and from) private sector |
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Willem H.
Buiter, chief economist for Citigroup, discusses the financial crises affecting
the Euro zone. The above is the link for player, download mp3 here
or read the transcript here.
Foreign Affairs Report: The Future of the
Eurozone – Foreign
Affairs
Huge
collection of articles – recommended, read this later.
European Crisis: Your 1 Minute Update –
ZH
Quick
roundup by each country, mostly by Citi.
Contagion? What Contagion? – EconoMonitor
The “epidemics” of today are partly different.
On the one hand, just like the plague, they spread “by linkages”
So I ask myself, is this Europe we are talking about here, or is
this some kind of dream I am having? Is this where all those high minded ideals
of a European Community have lead us, to a Greece where the young people get
locked in, like in the old days of the USSR, or locked out as in the days
before Schengen.
German and French leaders meet this week (Wed) to map out a revised plan for the euro as the Group of Eight exposed
disagreement on a rescue strategy, Greece lurched toward a
possible exit and Spain’s budget deficit
widened.
Keynes 1921 and the Euro Crisis – Krugman
/ NYT
So here too we are repeating ancient mistakes.
But why does nobody learn?
Could the Eurozone Crisis Cause Another Lehman
Moment? – naked
capitalism
Krugman
interview and discussion.
European bank runs and failure of
Credit-Anstalt in 1931 – ASA
Disturbingly, what’s happening today in Europe reminds me of something happening more than 80 years ago, when bank failures triggered bank runs virtually in the whole of Europe…
Disturbingly, what’s happening today in Europe reminds me of something happening more than 80 years ago, when bank failures triggered bank runs virtually in the whole of Europe…
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
However, a Greek exit will force the ECB to
act. Citi estimates that the ECB will have to provide some E800bn in liquidity
to mitigate a run on EZ banks in the event of a Greek exit. In addition, the
ECB will lower interest rates, buy Spanish and Italian bonds (quite possibly
other country bonds) in size and introduce QE, etc, etc, something which is
necessary…I remain of the view that Greece is far too much of a problem and
it’s ability to continue to create problems is way above it’s perceived threat.
In addition, we all know that the Greeks will never comply – not a great
precedent to the Irish, Portuguese Spanish and Italians. As a result, I feel
that an exit by Greece in the next 12 months is a 75% certainty.
…the bailout will have to be renegotiated
anyway, whenever the Troika next sits down with a Greek government that can
talk to it. That’s economic reality, whatever the Europeans are currently
insisting.
From best to worst: 1. A ring-fenced Greek
exit. 2. An extended muddling through. 3. A series of peripheral exits. 4. A
bigger break-up.
G8 (risk, nothing there)
Obama
presses EU leaders on growth – euobserver
G-8 Says
Greece Should Stay in Euro as Differences Linger – BB
Merkel Resists G-8 Spending Pressure as Soccer Breaks the Ice – BB
Cameron Urges EU to Prepare for Greek Exit From Euro – BB
G8 growth talk leaves wary markets awaiting action – Reuters
Merkel Resists G-8 Spending Pressure as Soccer Breaks the Ice – BB
Cameron Urges EU to Prepare for Greek Exit From Euro – BB
G8 growth talk leaves wary markets awaiting action – Reuters
The
Hilarious G-8 Declaration Decoded – ZH
OTHER
David Rosenberg: "Despair Begets
Hope" – ZH
Something tells me that we are just one
recession and one last leg down in the market away from crossing over the other
side of the mountain. And believe me, nobody is in a bigger hurry to get there,
than yours truly.
By The Time Operation Twist 1 Is Over, The Fed
Will Have Quietly Completed 40% Of Operation Twist 2 As Well – ZH