Google Analytics

Tuesday, May 15

15th May - US Open: Merde Meet

Here are the US open regulars and some select article summaries. The Eurogroup meeting came and went, Europe had zero GDP growth and everyone is still waiting for the news on Spain and especially Greece. Hollande and Merkel (=MerDe) are having a meeting. For more reads and some comments from yours truly, see last night’s long US Close: Exit Greece, Enter MerDe. Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook.  

Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH
Today’s Economic Calendar – Goldman Sachs / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
  Greek party leaders to discuss proposal for technocratic government; Juncker: “We wouldn’t preclude a debate” on giving Greece more time to meet targets

Overnight Summary – Bank of America / ZH
Morning MarketBeat: Treasurys Fool the Stock Bulls Again – MarketBeat / WSJ
Broker Note Briefing: Tuesday – Market Beat / WSJ
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
AM Dear Dairy – Macro and Cheese
Market Summary for US Open: Muted Turn Around Tuesday  Marc to Market
The T Report – TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Bond Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Euro crisis: Can Merkel and Hollande find compromise?BBC
Whatever their differences, the crisis in the eurozone will put them under huge pressure to compromise. After all, Chancellor Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy did not like each other at first but ended up being called "Merkozy" - such was their closeness.

The state of the eurozone, credit editionalphaville / FT
Charts and short discussion

Eurozone GDP was flat in first quarter 2012ASA
Nothing Like 0%
GDP Growth to Make Things Look UpMarketBeat / WSJ
German GDP Beat Saves The DayZH

Mr. "Lie When It's Serious" Juncker Tells Another Whopper: "I Don’t Envisage, Not Even for One Second, Greece Leaving the Euro Area"; Two More Days of Hopefully Futile Coalition Talks on a "Government of Personalities"Mish’s
Juncker's statement about willingness to negotiate changes in bailout terms is of course a blatant lie aimed at keeping Greece in the Eurozone. Also note the lie from  Maria Fekter about Greece having to leave the EU if it exits the eurozone. Given that numerous countries are in the EU without being in the Eurozone, the UK is a prime example, Fekter's statement is complete nonsense.

Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro OfficialsBB
Juncker slams Greek euro-exit 'propaganda'euobserver
Euro zone finance ministers dismiss Greek exit "propaganda"Reuters

European banks: Too big to…just too big!Saxo Bank
I think banks in Europe are too big. The banks in Europe that are “too big to fail” are actually “too big to regulate” and maybe even “too big to manage”.

A Quick note on Bank DowngradesGolem XIV
All it takes is for the world to perceive that the ECB might not stand behind a sovereign’s central bank – may not be able to – and the calculation of support that that central bank can in its turn offer its nations banks, changes. Basically I’m wondering if the ECB’s credibility as the ultimate guarantor of solvency and systemic invulnerability is finally wearing thin. 

EU attempts to break deadlock on bank rulesReuters
EU finance ministers will try on Tuesday to break a deadlock on new capital rules aiming to cover banks' risks, a reform intended to prevent another financial crisis but which has exposed deep rifts between Britain and the rest of the EU.

FAQ: Why is Greece in such trouble? And can it be fixed? Ezra Klein / WP
Of course, it’s possible that Germany and the rest of Europe will try to find a way to accommodate Greece, rather than letting the euro implode. But right now there’s a standoff, and it’s not at all clear who’s going to blink first — or if anyone will blink at all.

Is Germany bluffing on Greece?bruegel
After the recent elections in Greece, German officials seem to seriously consider a Greek Euro area exit – at least this is what official statements from policymakers indicate.  Are these statements serious or is Germany bluffing on Greece?

How to protect euro from Greek exitHugo Dixon / Reuters
To prevent further capital flight from periphery, ECB and secondarily the firewall should be used to backstop the weaklings. But it might be too little without the full support of Germany.

Will Centrists Save Greece and Eurozone?Pension Pulse
And all of you who think Greece can easily return to the drachma and this will cure their economy are equally disingenuous and way off. Nothing can be further from the truth. A return to the drachma will be disastrous.

What will happen when Greece leaves the Eurozone?ASA
For a while, I have been saying that a Greek exit should be unavoidable…We are basically in an uncharted territory with regard to the breakup of the Eurozone.  We just don’t know what’s going to happen except that isn’t going to look pretty.

The incalculable consequences of a Greek exit from the euroSaxo Bank
I would caution against taking too much solace from the seemingly open (to a Greek exit) rhetoric of the eurozone, as this is likely just a negotiating position.

Strategic Briefing: Will Greece Leave The Euro?The Capital Spectator
Article summaries and links

EM correlations, chartedalphaville / FT
Those are a couple of fun charts from Goldman Sachs analysts on Tuesday, confirming what’s largely accepted - EMs are high-beta bets which are currently in RoRo mode – although Goldman also point out a few interesting little things via lots of lovely charts.

SNB: Defending the FloorThe Source / WSJ
…in the real world the floor has three underpinnings. The first is the political will to maintain it, the second is the inflation picture and the third is the imponderable of how bad things get in the euro zone.

Draghi and Bernanke: A study in contrastsHumble Student
Today, both the US and Europe appear mired in a deflation trap. The Draghi solution is to prod member governments to become more Austrian - lower deficits through "good austerity" and structural reforms at the microeconomic level so that it's easier to do business and be competitive. The Bernanke solution is for the Fed to avoid deflation at all costs - ease and print money whenever its specter appears.