Another US
open, after lousy European PMI’s and a summit that had no results. For my
commentary see last night’ US Close: Summit to kick Greece. With all the bad news, talks of imminent coordinated central bank action will surface soon in financial centers near you.
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Overnight
Summary – Bank
of America / ZH
Today’s
Front Pages – presseurop
Daily Press
Summary – Open
Europe
EU
summit fails to yield any proposals on fiscal stimulus or Greece; German Social
Democrats row back on support for Eurobonds
Morning
MarketBeat: Here We Go Again – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear
Dairy – Macro
and Cheese
US Open: Dollar
Stabilizes, Europe News Stream Poor – Marc
to Market
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Total Failure – Tim Duy’s
Fed Watch
European policymakers accomplished exactly what
was expected of them. Absolutely nothing…The
trouble is that Europe doesn't have a month to wait for another summit. I am not confident they even have a
week. But not to fear - the ECB is
expected to step into the breech once again.
Is the Currency (Finally) Doomed? – TIME
The world needs a firm plan of action from Europe: a euro-wide deposit insurance
scheme to stop a euro-wide bank run; a real recapitalization program for weak
euro zone banks; a clear plan on what to do with Greece; an expanded firewall
to protect Spain and Italy from any Greek fallout; and a true agenda to support growth. We’re not
close to any of these steps. The more time slips away, the more likely the euro
will, too.
Now, part of this is a bit facetious. I really don’t think they should try to kick Germany out of the EMU. But they should
certainly unify more tightly and begin pushing back very aggressively. There’s
much more to the EMU than Germany, but for some reason everyone is taking orders from Angela Merkel.
Hey, Germany: You Got a Bailout, Too – View
/ BB
As German Chancellor Angela Merkel considers the next step in the euro crisis -- one that could help the euro area return to growth or, alternatively, risk the survival of the entire currency union -- she should keep in mind that her country is indebted to the euro system as much as Greece is.
As German Chancellor Angela Merkel considers the next step in the euro crisis -- one that could help the euro area return to growth or, alternatively, risk the survival of the entire currency union -- she should keep in mind that her country is indebted to the euro system as much as Greece is.
Spain 'Discovers' 28 Billion In Debt – ZH
Instead of the expected EUR8 billion of 'regional refinancing' expected for 2012, it turns out there is EUR36 billion and as Reuters notes "the difference is due to bilateral loans from Spanish banks to the regions worth 28 billion euros that were not made public previously"
Instead of the expected EUR8 billion of 'regional refinancing' expected for 2012, it turns out there is EUR36 billion and as Reuters notes "the difference is due to bilateral loans from Spanish banks to the regions worth 28 billion euros that were not made public previously"
EURO CRISIS: PMI’S
French,
German flash manufacturing PMIs and German IFO miss estimates – ASA
Europe Manufacturing Shrinks, German
Confidence Drops – BB
The weight
of the eurozone PMIs – alphaville
/ FT
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
The road to "Grexit" – BNY
Mellon
The
timeline so far
Beware Of Proud Greeks And Ultimatums – ZH
One way to look at the current tensions in both European and American debt discussions is as an Ultimatum Game between governments and individuals. Take Greece, for example. Classical economics would say – and you will hear a lot of policymakers echo – that the Greeks should take whatever deal they can. Something is better than nothing. All the lessons of the Ultimatum Game studies point to an entirely different conclusion.
One way to look at the current tensions in both European and American debt discussions is as an Ultimatum Game between governments and individuals. Take Greece, for example. Classical economics would say – and you will hear a lot of policymakers echo – that the Greeks should take whatever deal they can. Something is better than nothing. All the lessons of the Ultimatum Game studies point to an entirely different conclusion.
Self-fulfilling prophecy: Grexit edition – ASA
the thought of having EU officials preparing themselves for Grexit by itself could be self-fulfilling.
the thought of having EU officials preparing themselves for Grexit by itself could be self-fulfilling.
From Citi, another Grexit scenario – alphaville
/ FT
Citi’s scenario: Greece will immediately suspend interest payments on all government debt. But — in order to defer the recognition of losses among official creditors and as part of the package of EU/IMF cooperation post-Grexit — government debt will not be redenominated or written off immediately
Citi’s scenario: Greece will immediately suspend interest payments on all government debt. But — in order to defer the recognition of losses among official creditors and as part of the package of EU/IMF cooperation post-Grexit — government debt will not be redenominated or written off immediately
German Press: "The Greek Exit Is A Done
Deal" – ZH
From Tomorrow's edition of Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachricthen: "The Greece-exit is a done deal: According to the German economic news from financial circles EU and the ECB have abandoned the motherland of democracy as a euro member. The reason is, interestingly, not in the upcoming elections - these are basically become irrelevant. The EU has finally realized that the Greeks have not met any agreements and will not continue not to meet them.
From Tomorrow's edition of Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachricthen: "The Greece-exit is a done deal: According to the German economic news from financial circles EU and the ECB have abandoned the motherland of democracy as a euro member. The reason is, interestingly, not in the upcoming elections - these are basically become irrelevant. The EU has finally realized that the Greeks have not met any agreements and will not continue not to meet them.
Now, Willem Buiter of Citi wrote that Greece will leave the
European monetary union (EMU) in early 2013.
That will be followed by, as many would have expected, rapid currency
devaluation. He is also expecting that
contagion to other eurozone countries, saying that it is unavoidable. But it will be met by aggressive policy
response, including, among others, the ECB cutting rates to 0.5% with even more
LTROs.
The broader political reasons for joining the
family of European nations were to take the country out of isolation, give it
better governance and strengthen its democratic institutions. All the efforts Greece made in this
direction over the past four decades would be thrown to the winds. The next
election is really a vote for or against Europe.