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Thursday, May 24

24th May - US Open: Bad good?

Another US open, after lousy European PMI’s and a summit that had no results. For my commentary see last night’ US Close: Summit to kick Greece. With all the bad news, talks of imminent coordinated central bank action will surface soon in financial centers near you.  

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Daily US Opening – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight Summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s Front Pages – presseurop
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
  EU summit fails to yield any proposals on fiscal stimulus or Greece; German Social Democrats row back on support for Eurobonds

Morning MarketBeat: Here We Go Again – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy – Macro and Cheese
US Open: Dollar Stabilizes, Europe News Stream Poor  – Marc to Market

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Total FailureTim Duy’s Fed Watch
European policymakers accomplished exactly what was expected of them.  Absolutely nothing…The trouble is that Europe doesn't have a month to wait for another summit.  I am not confident they even have a week.  But not to fear - the ECB is expected to step into the breech once again. 

Is the Currency (Finally) Doomed?TIME
The world needs a firm plan of action from Europe: a euro-wide deposit insurance scheme to stop a euro-wide bank run; a real recapitalization program for weak euro zone banks; a clear plan on what to do with Greece; an expanded firewall to protect Spain and Italy from any Greek fallout; and a true agenda to support growth. We’re not close to any of these steps. The more time slips away, the more likely the euro will, too.

It’s time to kick Germany out of the EMUPragCap
Now, part of this is a bit facetious.  I really don’t think they should try to kick Germany out of the EMU.  But they should certainly unify more tightly and begin pushing back very aggressively. There’s much more to the EMU than Germany, but for some reason everyone is taking orders from Angela Merkel. 

Hey, Germany: You Got a Bailout, TooView / BB
As German Chancellor Angela Merkel considers the next step in the euro crisis -- one that could help the euro area return to growth or, alternatively, risk the survival of the entire currency union -- she should keep in mind that her country is indebted to the euro system as much as Greece is.

Spain 'Discovers' 28 Billion In DebtZH
Instead of the expected EUR8 billion of 'regional refinancing' expected for 2012, it turns out there is EUR36 billion and as Reuters notes "the difference is due to bilateral loans from Spanish banks to the regions worth 28 billion euros that were not made public previously"

EU Chiefs Clash on Euro Bonds as Crisis Summit Bogs DownBB

French, German flash manufacturing PMIs and German IFO miss estimates – ASA
Flash Comment: PMI deterioration could trigger ECB cut – Danske Bank (pdf)
Europe Manufacturing Shrinks, German Confidence Drops – BB
The weight of the eurozone PMIsalphaville / FT

The road to "Grexit"BNY Mellon
The timeline so far

Beware Of Proud Greeks And UltimatumsZH
One way to look at the current tensions in both European and American debt discussions is as an Ultimatum Game between governments and individuals.  Take
Greece, for example.  Classical economics would say – and you will hear a lot of policymakers echo – that the Greeks should take whatever deal they can.  Something is better than nothing.  All the lessons of the Ultimatum Game studies point to an entirely different conclusion.

Self-fulfilling prophecy: Grexit editionASA
the thought of having EU officials preparing themselves for Grexit by itself could be self-fulfilling.

From Citi, another Grexit scenarioalphaville / FT
Citi’s scenario:
Greece will immediately suspend interest payments on all government debt. But — in order to defer the recognition of losses among official creditors and as part of the package of EU/IMF cooperation post-Grexit — government debt will not be redenominated or written off immediately

German Press: "The Greek Exit Is A Done Deal"ZH
From Tomorrow's edition of Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachricthen: "The Greece-exit is a done deal: According to the German economic news from financial circles EU and the ECB have abandoned the motherland of democracy as a euro member. The reason is, interestingly, not in the upcoming elections - these are basically become irrelevant. The EU has finally realized that the Greeks have not met any agreements and will not continue not to meet them.

Countdown begins: Grexit on 1 January 2013, according to CitiASA
Now, Willem Buiter of Citi wrote that Greece will leave the European monetary union (EMU) in early 2013.  That will be followed by, as many would have expected, rapid currency devaluation.  He is also expecting that contagion to other eurozone countries, saying that it is unavoidable.  But it will be met by aggressive policy response, including, among others, the ECB cutting rates to 0.5% with even more LTROs.

An Exit From Europe Would Be Our Own Greek TragedyView / BB
The broader political reasons for joining the family of European nations were to take the country out of isolation, give it better governance and strengthen its democratic institutions. All the efforts Greece made in this direction over the past four decades would be thrown to the winds. The next election is really a vote for or against Europe.

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