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Thursday, May 31

31st May - US Open: Crisis Pause

Here are the US open regulars and few article links. For my own recent commentary, see how charts tell about a crisis pause, how to play announcement games, and when Spain requests the bailout.

Daily US Opening – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight Summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s Front Pages – presseurop
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
  EC recommends giving Spain an extra year to cut deficit

Morning MarketBeat: Summer Blues Loom – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Steady – Macro and Cheese
US Open: Month-End Adjustment Gives Brief Reprieve – Marc to Market
The T Report: – TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Germany not Spain needs infrastructure investmentThe World / FT
The beauty of infrastructure spending in Germany is that it would cost the EU nothing…Germany enjoys close to full employment, so a dose of infrastructure investment might even suck in imports and unemployed workers from southern Europe.

BizDaily: Can Europe compete?BBC (mp3)
As part of this week's series of interviews with the founding fathers of the Eurozone, we speak to one of the project's main cheerleaders in the 1990s, European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, Yves Thibault de Silguy. We have a working guide to competitiveness from Stephane Garelli, author of the IMD Global Competitiveness Index. And we hear from the BBC's Steve Vickers in Harare on why they're running out of coins in Zimbabwe.

Press release ECB publishes TARGET Annual Report 2011ECB
“the system functioned smoothly and registered a higher turnover" full pdf

Brussels throws gauntlet down to BerlinMacroScope / Reuters
Time to dust off the golden rule of this crisis – dramatic decisions are taken only when the bloc is staring right into the abyss. We’re not quite there yet, though not far off, so there has to be a chance of something seismic resulting from the end-June EU summit

Frogger: Eurozone Crisis Editionalphaville / FT
BNP: At any moment we can expect any number of policy decisions that could dramatically change the investment environment… What is perhaps most under priced by markets is that these events all turn out to be less extreme than we think now…chance that they have too little upside exposure.

Strategic Briefing: Will Spain Leave The Euro?The Capital Spectator
Summaries and links to recent articles.

Europe in the MatrixStreetwise Professor
Under the plan, “the senior ‘Blue’ tranche of up to 60 percent of GDP,would be pooled among participating countries and jointly and severally guaranteed.” In contrast, “the junior ‘Red’ tranche, would keep debt in excess of 60 percent of GDP as a purely national responsibility.”

Eurozone Retail Sales CrashMish’s
Record declines in France and Italy, overall revenues drop at near record pace. This should bury the notion the eurozone recession will be short and shallow.

Why Switzerland is the new Chinaalphaville / FT
keeping the Swiss franc structurally undervalued against the euro is becoming costlier than ever. The act of having to put its money where its mouth is — via that permanent 1.20 bid — has not only reduced Switzerland to “currency manipulator” status, but also into one of the biggest acquirers of euro-denominated assets in the world.

What's the risk of capital flight in China?Humble Student
OK - so they are starting to lose confidence in China's long-term growth outlook. What are they doing about it?... To be sure, I may have just misinterpreted the data and wrongly concluded that capital flight is occurring. Another explanation is that this episode of capital flight is just a momentary flash of panic, created by the uncertainty that accompanies a change in leadership.

Secular LowsWorld Beta
Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain, Russia, and Italy are all trading at CAPEs below 10.  Generational buying opportunity or prelude to more pain?

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