Here are
the US open regulars and again some select article
links. Markets are somewhat more relaxed after the weekend, as the Greece's exit from euro is expected to happen during the weekends. So, we should now understand that markets will go risk-off towards the end of this week? See today’s earlier Extra:
European updates for more.
Posted during the weekend:
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Overnight
Summary – Bank
of America / ZH
Daily Press
Summary – Open
Europe
New
Democracy and SYRIZA neck and neck in opinion polls; German government denies
Merkel’s calls for Greek euro membership referendum
Morning
MarketBeat: Stocks Struggle to Snap Ugly Streak – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing: – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear
Dairy: And They're Off – Macro
and Cheese
US Open: FX
Outlook – Marc to
Market
The T
Report – TF Market Advisors
The policy responses and hints of policy responses are starting to come
out.
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS
Capital flight – Buttonwood’s
/ The Economist
Citigroup calculates the outflows of capital
from various euro zone nations, in particular Italy and Spain. He concludes that Italy saw 160 billion euros
exit in 2011, while Spain lost 100 billion
euros, in a mixture of bank withdrawals and sales of government and corporate
bonds. He thinks a further 200 billion euros could follow.
Given the renewed political tension, it is
becoming increasingly difficult to see how Europe is going to arrest the crisis as it
slowly but surely makes its way to Italy. The steps required
from here are large, politically painful and increasingly bold yet once again Europe appears to be drifting further
apart, both economically and politically.
Merkel under pressure … but unbending – MacroScope
/ Reuters
However, the hefty 4.3 percent pay rise secured
by Germany’s most powerful union, IG Metall could be a sign that Berlin is starting to loosen
the edges of its anti-inflation culture in order to foster a bit of domestic
demand. Any profound return to euro zone growth is going to require some
internal imbalancing – and that means Germany buying more from its partners to allow them to export more.
Hollande to confront Merkel on eurobonds at EU
summit – euobserver
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
Is a Greek Exit from the Euro Inevitable? – TIME
More broadly, Europe can squelch the “bank jog” if it
shows more commitment to the euro, and keeping Greece in the union. The
longer this period of uncertainty over Greece’s status drags on,
the more deposits will flee Greece, and the more likely
a euro exit becomes.
This is why Grexit fears might be overdone – alphaville
/ FT
Getting a pro-bailout government in power on its own doesn’t change the bleak prospects for growth in the country struggling to meet its austerity targets. But the the warnings, on the one hand, that next month’s election will be effectively a referendum on Greece’s eurozone membership, could work in favour of New Democracy and/or PASOK, together with hints out of the weekend G8 meeting that Germany is becoming ever more isolated with its pro-austerity agenda.
Getting a pro-bailout government in power on its own doesn’t change the bleak prospects for growth in the country struggling to meet its austerity targets. But the the warnings, on the one hand, that next month’s election will be effectively a referendum on Greece’s eurozone membership, could work in favour of New Democracy and/or PASOK, together with hints out of the weekend G8 meeting that Germany is becoming ever more isolated with its pro-austerity agenda.
The only options now left for Europe are either
for the ECB to assume the debts of Greece (and, once that were done, most
likely Portugal, Ire- land, Italy, Spain and, one day, possibly even France),
guarantee them and print the trillions of euros necessary to underwrite them
or, should that prove unpalatable to the German elector- ate elected heads of
the continent, allow Greece to leave and risk the contagion that such a prec-
edent would set—contagion which would mean the printing of trillions of euros needed
in order to compensate for the massive imbalances in the Target2 payment system
and stop the entire European banking system from imploding. (Full
pdf)
OTHER
Watch the Bounce – The Big Picture
Following last week’s down 4% mess, markets are
set to bounce. Investors are advised to watch the quality of this bounce to
discern any insights about what the near futures might hold.
BizDaily: Eurozone: what don't we know? – BBC
(mp3)
As uncertainty over the fate of Greece grips financial
markets, we ponder the knowns and unknowns in the sovereign debt crisis with Dr
Paola Subacchi of Chatham House and former UK government adviser,
Vicky Pryce. Amidst all the fear, John Grout from Britain's Association of Corporate Treasurers offers practical advice to
businesses whose trade depends on the eurozone. And our regular commentator,
Lucy Kellaway of the Financial Times, explains how saving rubber bands might
just save a British corporate giant - The Royal Mail.