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Monday, May 21

21st May - US Open: Phew, no Grexit yet

Here are the US open regulars and again some select article links. Markets are somewhat more relaxed after the weekend, as the Greece's exit from euro is expected to happen during the weekends. So, we should now understand that markets will go risk-off towards the end of this week? See today’s earlier Extra: European updates for more.

Posted during the weekend:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook.  
Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight Summary – Bank of America / ZH
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
  New Democracy and SYRIZA neck and neck in opinion polls; German government denies Merkel’s calls for Greek euro membership referendum

Morning MarketBeat: Stocks Struggle to Snap Ugly Streak – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing: – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: And They're Off  – Macro and Cheese
US Open: FX Outlook – Marc to Market
The T Report – TF Market Advisors
  The policy responses and hints of policy responses are starting to come out.

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Capital flight Buttonwood’s / The Economist
Citigroup calculates the outflows of capital from various euro zone nations, in particular Italy and Spain. He concludes that Italy saw 160 billion euros exit in 2011, while Spain lost 100 billion euros, in a mixture of bank withdrawals and sales of government and corporate bonds. He thinks a further 200 billion euros could follow.

Germany resists senseMacro Business
Given the renewed political tension, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Europe is going to arrest the crisis as it slowly but surely makes its way to Italy. The steps required from here are large, politically painful and increasingly bold yet once again Europe appears to be drifting further apart, both economically and politically.

Merkel under pressure … but unbendingMacroScope / Reuters
However, the hefty 4.3 percent pay rise secured by Germany’s most powerful union, IG Metall could be a sign that Berlin is starting to loosen the edges of its anti-inflation culture in order to foster a bit of domestic demand. Any profound return to euro zone growth is going to require some internal imbalancing – and that means Germany buying more from its partners to allow them to export more.

Hollande to confront Merkel on eurobonds at EU summiteuobserver

UK government to Merkel: move to fiscal union or else...Open Europe

Is a Greek Exit from the Euro Inevitable?TIME
More broadly, Europe can squelch the “bank jog” if it shows more commitment to the euro, and keeping Greece in the union. The longer this period of uncertainty over Greece’s status drags on, the more deposits will flee Greece, and the more likely a euro exit becomes.

This is why Grexit fears might be overdonealphaville / FT
Getting a pro-bailout government in power on its own doesn’t change the bleak prospects for growth in the country struggling to meet its austerity targets. But the the warnings, on the one hand, that next month’s election will be effectively a referendum on Greece’s eurozone membership, could work in favour of New Democracy and/or PASOK, together with hints out of the weekend G8 meeting that Germany is becoming ever more isolated with its pro-austerity agenda.

On Grexit, war, lies, the future of EuropeGrant Williams via The Trader
The only options now left for Europe are either for the ECB to assume the debts of Greece (and, once that were done, most likely Portugal, Ire- land, Italy, Spain and, one day, possibly even France), guarantee them and print the trillions of euros necessary to underwrite them or, should that prove unpalatable to the German elector- ate elected heads of the continent, allow Greece to leave and risk the contagion that such a prec- edent would set—contagion which would mean the printing of trillions of euros needed in order to compensate for the massive imbalances in the Target2 payment system and stop the entire European banking system from imploding. (Full pdf)

Watch the BounceThe Big Picture
Following last week’s down 4% mess, markets are set to bounce. Investors are advised to watch the quality of this bounce to discern any insights about what the near futures might hold.

BizDaily: Eurozone: what don't we know?BBC (mp3)
As uncertainty over the fate of Greece grips financial markets, we ponder the knowns and unknowns in the sovereign debt crisis with Dr Paola Subacchi of Chatham House and former UK government adviser, Vicky Pryce. Amidst all the fear, John Grout from Britain's Association of Corporate Treasurers offers practical advice to businesses whose trade depends on the eurozone. And our regular commentator, Lucy Kellaway of the Financial Times, explains how saving rubber bands might just save a British corporate giant - The Royal Mail.