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Wednesday, May 30

29th May - US Close: Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

Here is the massive article linkfest and the US close regulars. Key issue for European markets is that ECB has denied the Spanish Central Bank from loaning the funds for banks' recapitalization from the ECB. I wrote earlier on a domestic forum that my set date for an official bailout request is next Tuesday, as I guessed the ECB's decision. 

Markets will kick the Spanish bonds and during the weekend there will be some pathetic telephone calls across Europe, followed by some pathetic statements. Market will not buy any of that bullshit, and yields will continue creeping higher on Monday. If it is not the next Tuesday, it will be the following Tuesday - in that scenario the markets will wait until the ECB's meeting, and if something absolutely fabulous is not flowing from Draghi, the beatings shall commence.

Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View from My Screens
Commodity Commentary – Commodity Trader
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  Debt Divergence Dominates Dull Day Even As FaceBerg Sinks Deeper

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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Europe's Stress Scenarios And What Goldman Sees As Priced InZH
Goldman Sachs: Muddle through, fast Grexit, managed Grexit. First is most likely, markets have priced in the third

On Europe: "A Willing Lender Of Last Resort May Not Be Enough"ZH
J.P. Morgan’s funny comic and short text.

Europeans Ambivalent to the Euro, Survey FindsTIME
The debt crisis that has ravaged
Europe for the best part of three years has exposed a dislike of the single currency but little desire to abandon it.

*Despite Its Troubles, the Euro Area Is Making ProgressPIIE
Bankia’s Failure: A Manageable Problem? - Germany ’s Politics: A Step Toward One Form of Euro Bonds? - The European Council: Heading to More Integration?

Is Germany's CDS Pricing A 6% EUR Devaluation?ZH
Given the US and (almost explicitly given its dominance) Germany are more currency issuer than user, default risk is not the main driver of the CDS spread but currency devaluation (some might call it inflation) is much more of a factor.

Ten-year Bund yields below 1%? Wouldn’t faze Nomura alphaville / FT
Nomura: Were the market to price-in an imminent break-up of the EUR, in our view Bund yields could go negative out to 5yrs, while for the 10yr sector we would expect yields to move far below 1%. Given the value of the embedded FX option in the Bund, we think it is not impossible that yields will approach the cycle low in 10yr JGB yields in 2003 of 44bp…

Risks of ECB Rate Cut Next Week: UnderestimatedMarc to Market
The ECB will provide new staff forecasts at next week's meeting and the direction of the revised growth estimates is likely to be lower. With the drop in commodity prices in general and energy in particular, the staff may lower their inflation forecasts as well.

The Reality of the SituationHussman
I expect that the Euro will fracture well beyond a Greek exit. Ultimately, the result might be a "strong Euro" that reflects the union of Europe's most fiscally responsible countries, or we might instead see a "weak Euro" that follows the departure of Germany from the currency union and leaves peripheral members free to inflate.

The lies of the EBA about how safe our banks areGolem XIV
There was no transparency. There was no honesty. No integrity. No honour. What we have is an aristocracy who lie and connive together to shower us with the shit of their wastrel lives.

The spike in ratings downgrades is driven by banksSober Look
The other rating agencies have also been active in downgrading financials - particularly last year. At this rate it is only a matter of time before many banking institutions will lose their investment grade standing. It will be interesting to see how the high yield and the crossover markets handle this inflow of new names.

Eurobonds: il conto, la cuenta, l'addition, die RechnungButtonwood’s / The Economist
What would stop the free rider problem of countries issuing tons of debt at the new low interest rate? Indeed, would the guaranteed bonds have prior creditor status (like the IMF always claims for itself) if the country defaults? If this is the chosen option, lots of detailed negotiation will be needed.

Can “eurobonds” fix Europe?Wonkblog / WP
Still, even if eurobonds, on their own, can’t bring Europe back to full health, many analysts think they’ll have to be a major part of the treatment course. And Germany may not be able to oppose the idea forever.

Eurobond or bustMacroScope / Reuters
Hans-Werner Sinn head of Germany’s Ifo economic institute summed up the sentiment. He told Reuters that common bonds were the “logical consequence” of the TARGET2 system, but described this as “an inevitable force that pulls Europe into what I would call a disaster”.

Europe’s debtors must pawn their gold for Eurobond Redemption The Telegraph
Southern Europe’s debtor states must pledge their gold reserves and national treasure as collateral under a €2.3 trillion stabilisation plan gaining momentum in Germany.
Additional comments by ZH

ECB Calls Spain's Bluff... Or Does It?ZH
FT: A Spanish plan to recapitalise Bankia, the troubled lender, by indirectly tapping the ECB for cash, was bluntly rejected as unacceptable by the ECB, European officials said.

Spain: Serving Too Many MastersMarc to Market
The banks and the regions. Separately either could force Madrid into the arms of the Troika. However, Prime Minister Rajoy appears to have staked his political credibility on not seeking international assistance. This hubris will prove his nemesis, and this is an area in which postponement will likely produce a larger bill, when the piper calls and rest assured the piper will call.

When “extend and pretend” becomes “delay and pray” mathbabe
Unfortunately, it would be tough for Spain to repeat that act- it depended on the fact that Iceland has control over its economic choices, but Spain is part of the Eurozone and as such is embedded in a huge network of agreements and debts and currency with the other Eurozone nations. In some sense, Spain is being forced into the zombie bank situation by a lack of options.

Can Spain make a solo comeback?El Pais / presseurop
Assurances from the head of government cannot amount to much: victim of a severe banking crisis, Madrid will soon be forced to seek help in the EU. Like Ireland, it will then be placed on a drip-feed – and under guardianship

Bankia in the Sunshine Statealphaville / FT
…or what businesses Bankia has outside Spain.

Stamenkovic Says Spanish Bond Yields Likely to RiseBB (mp3)

When it comes to credit, Greece is already out of the EurozoneSober Look
Such behavior is quite similar to the way suppliers and customers treat a company that is about to file. This is all at the time when Greek banks are unable to step in to deal with this isolation.

The fiscal economics of a Greek
Daniel Gros: If Greece leaves the Eurozone, many expect that it that will be forced to default. This column argues that need not be the case.

Mitsubishi’s Brown Sees Greek `Orderly Exit' From EMUBB (mp3)

Has The SNB Restarted The Printing Press?ZH
We have speculated that the SNB will double or triple the Forex reserves before it gives in and the floor will break. At the current speed of 13 bln per week, this will result in 676 bln. CHF per year, i.e. they will have tripled money supply and currency reserves in one year.

Interim Yield Forecast UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Euro crisis to drive rates lower over the summer

Historic moment for the IMFEconomist’s Forum / FT
The IMF is set to officially change its view on the regulation of cross-border finance.  Preliminary work released by the IMF exhibits diligent research and deep soul searching, but falls short of being a comprehensive view on how and when to regulate capital flows.  There is still time for the IMF to further sharpen its view.

Yale’s Stephen Roach Says China Growth `Will Surprise’BB (mp3)

HSBC’s Evans Says Stock Market `Looks Cheap’BB (mp3)

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