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Friday, May 4

4th May - Recognition?

Payrolls coming up and the last trading session before the European elections. Probably a good idea to go into this weekend with limited risk – Hollande is not dangerous, as he will do whatever he is supposed to do – and currently even the “wrong” ideas might be better policy-wise. Biggest question mark is the lovely holiday destination for bailout funds – Greece

The public debt level is still too high and on top of that the country still owes through TARGET2 approximately hundred billion euros. Any talk or actual euro exit and default would realize the central banking and EFSF losses that currently go unrecognized in euro countries’ national books.

As a reminder, the cost from Spain, deemed too big to fail, is estimated to be 150-200 billion euros just for the banks. Greece is no peanuts. The realized losses would anger voters everywhere, endanger support for European “Death Stars” (EFSF et al) and “solidarity, and probably force the ECB to do the helicopter thing.
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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: May 4 – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning: May 4 – ZH
Daily Press Summary – Open Europe
  UK could be outvoted on EU bank capital rules; Süddeutsche: UK is on the right side, since it wants to protect the taxpayers
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Overnight Sentiment: Europe is Open – Bank of America / ZH
Morning MarketBeat: Here Comes the Jobs Report – MarketBeat / WSJ
Broker Note Briefing: Friday – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT
AM Dear Dairy: NFP Friday – Macro and Cheese
Services, Jobs and Politics Dominate FX – Marc to Market                  

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

Looking Ahead To Today's Noisy Non-Farm Payroll NumberZH
Non- Farm Friday Funnies... Here we go again folksSaxo Bank
Wise Up to the Proper Flaws of Monthly NFP DataThe Big Picture

Live! From New York! It’s Jobs FridayMarketBeat / WSJ
Our Jobs Day TraditionsThe Reformed Broker