4th May - Recognition?

Payrolls coming up and the last trading session before the European elections. Probably a good idea to go into this weekend with limited risk – Hollande is not dangerous, as he will do whatever he is supposed to do – and currently even the “wrong” ideas might be better policy-wise. Biggest question mark is the lovely holiday destination for bailout funds – Greece. 

The public debt level is still too high and on top of that the country still owes through TARGET2 approximately hundred billion euros. Any talk or actual euro exit and default would realize the central banking and EFSF losses that currently go unrecognized in euro countries’ national books.

As a reminder, the cost from Spain, deemed too big to fail, is estimated to be 150-200 billion euros just for the banks. Greece is no peanuts. The realized losses would anger voters everywhere, endanger support for European “Death Stars” (EFSF et al) and “solidarity, and probably force the ECB to do the helicopter thing.

 

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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: May 4 – RanSquawk / ZH

Frontrunning: May 4 – ZH

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

  UK could be outvoted on EU bank capital rules; Süddeutsche: UK is on the right side, since it wants to protect the taxpayers

The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT

EM New York headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Overnight Sentiment: Europe is Open – Bank of America / ZH

Morning MarketBeat: Here Comes the Jobs Report – MarketBeat / WSJ

Broker Note Briefing: Friday – WSJ

Morning Take-Out – DealBook / NYT

AM Dear Dairy: NFP Friday – Macro and Cheese

Services, Jobs and Politics Dominate FX – Marc to Market                  

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch

Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          

Pre-Market – NASDAQ

US Equity Preview – Bloomberg

Earnings & Events – The Street

MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, CNBC, BBC

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph

Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ

Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank

PAYROLLS EXTRA

Looking Ahead To Today's Noisy Non-Farm Payroll Number – ZH

Non- Farm Friday Funnies... Here we go again folks – Saxo Bank

Wise Up to the Proper Flaws of Monthly NFP Data – The Big Picture

Live! From New York! It’s Jobs Friday – MarketBeat / WSJ
Our Jobs Day Traditions – The Reformed Broker