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Thursday, May 10

10th May - US Close: Grexit, not yet?

Plenty of opportunities to fail. Click to enlarge.
New issue of The Economist is out. Check my previous posts EU Open: Greece + Spain = GRAIN? and US Open: BIS, ECB Reports for more articles, and follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook.

News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens (new!)
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH (new!)
Morning Briefing (Asia) – BNY Mellon (new!)

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

The Comity of Europe: Ten PointsMarc to Market
With increased talk of a country leaving the euro zone, or even of the end of the whole project, it is worth sketching out our view. Here are the main points of our view of Europe.

What austerity looks like, in three graphsEzra Klein / WP
That’s austerity. It comes both from spending cuts and tax increases. And it can be expected to reduce economic growth.

Europe’s Achilles heelThe Economist
Amid growing risk of a Greek exit, the euro zone has yet to face up to the task of saving the single currency itself

Spanish banks: A rude awakeningThe Economist
Sorting out Bankia is just a start
The threat of a Greek exit: Unhappy in their own waysThe Economist
The escalating Greek crisis leaves Ireland and Portugal, in particular, ever more vulnerable

Socialist victory in France: President HollandeThe Economist
The new French president may be more open to austerity, and less able to bring a change of course in Europe, than his public expects

Westpac’s Shugg Says Europe Is `Really Deteriorating' – BB (mp3)
Goldman’s O’Neill Says EMU Not Essential to NetherlandsBB (mp3)
Deutsche Bank’s Ruskin Sees Weaker Euro, Stronger Yen – BB (mp3)
Greece’s Election: Tough Choices and a Sense of Déjà vuPIIE
Ahead of Greece’s new elections, the euro area and the Troika (the EU, the ECB and the IMF) will thus employ the Irish referendum strategy by rejecting Tsipras’s bluff and declaring the IMF program non-negotiable – and adding that a failure by Greece to adhere to it will cancel financial support and drive Greece from the euro area. We are already seeing this strategy put in motion

You cannot be Syriza!alphaville / FT
Who is bluffing: Troika or the anti-bailout Greeks?

The euro crisis: There are all too many alternativesThe Economist
Greece’s enraged howl of an election, which makes its eventual departure from the euro zone more likely
The T Report: The Axis of WeebleTF Market Advisors
Until the Greek’s have had time to attempt to renegotiate and have actually planned for an exit back to the Drachma they will not risk a hard default where they really don’t know the consequences. So look for more hard-line headlines but expect May payments to go smoothly.

The ECB and Greece: The Lender of Last Retort Attitude Must ChangeTF Market Advisors
The ECB seems to be quite happy to comment on Greece, and most of the comments seem to say that Greece isn’t doing their part. Well, what about the ECB? What have they been doing for Greece?

Anti-Bailout Coalition Soars In Popularity Ahead Of Second Greek ElectionZH

Full Letter From Greek "Anti-Bailout" Coalition Leader Tsipras To "The European Leadership"ZH