MoreLiver's Daily: July 2012

Tuesday, July 31

31st Jul - US Close

Still nothing new to say. See my continuously updated specials ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.

Not much to say - expectations on the ECB and the FED continue being downgraded, but market reactions continue being muted. Currently continuously updated specials: ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.

Dull markets. Current range trading is making me seeing things: is ECB ready for a minor correction before the news? I added Tapiola Bank's morning report to my coverage.

These are the ECB -related articles that have appeared on my blog posts in the past few days. I will update this post as new material comes along and also follow "after the fact" market reactions, analysis, and comments. Latest additions at the bottom of the post!

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These are the FED and QE-related articles that have appeared on my blog posts in the past few days. I will update this post as new material comes along and also follow "after the fact" market reactions, analysis, and comments. Latest additions at the bottom of the post!

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Dull markets – and all the commenting is on the FED and the ECB. Next I am posting two separate posts for both events. Today's articles on euro crisis gave me few ideas: if even Draghi acknowledges there are redenomination risks priced in the bond yields, and Germany is laissez-fairing the whole issue, is Germany fed up with the currency union and prepared to kick out one or several members? Greece is an obvious candidate, but how about Spain and Italy? If they are too big to bail out, and too big to support via an eventual fiscal union, isn't devaluation and eventual return to markets the cheapest way? I mentioned this way back last October that when the talking heads start telling the same story, something is cooking.

Couple of good speculations on the ECB’s plans in this post. If you’re not familiar with the Fistful of Euros-blog or Edward Hugh, take a look. He had balls to call Finland a possible closet Greece already several months ago. Markets are dull and in waiting mode. The video choice is explained by the Chuck Norris-effect in central banking. We will see soon.

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A new addition to the regular morning links: Nordea’s morning brief in Finnish. ECB's coming response seems to dominate the discussion, so expect headline-driven markets for the next couple of days.

29th Jul - Weekender: Views & Off-Topics

Spanish 10y yield (click to zoom)

The Spanish yields (10y, 2y) are now currently at an important juncture. Supposing one does not know about the newsflow and just looking at the charts hints that similar moves have been typical – as the yields have made new highs, some sort of verbal or policy intervention has been done, and the markets have calmed a bit – but the previous efforts have not lasted long. The recent drop in yields still fits this pattern perfectly, and that would suggest short bond positions. Draghi may have overpromised, but that is perhaps not a negative thing – he (and others as well) might be tempted to overdeliver, so the good old “buy the rumor, sell the news” might not hold this time.

This week's sections are Markets, Trading, Portfolio and Other.

Trading & Markets and Views & Off-Topics coming up next.

Past week's action was dominated first by euro pessimism and rising bond yields in the periphery - turned upside down on Thursday by ECB's bazooka hints. The "risk is back on"-attitude then took control for the rest of the week. I'll post Trading & Markets + View & Off-Topic-posts later today. I've also included links to Finnish articles for my local audience.

28th Jul - Credit Guest: European Derecho

Time for a guest post by Macronomics, as timely as it can get.

Here are the week in review and next week previewed-links, I will update this later. Come back later for my longer Weekender-posts.

27th Jul - US Close: Opening Ceremonies


London 2012 Olympics

Shhh... It's closed. It's opening time.

Key news today: Bundesbank opposes further bond purchases by the ECB. Markets are not reacting to that seemingly. Leaked or planted reports in French press that there will be a big policy response from the governments and the ECB coming. So why is everyone on holiday? As before, when there is no immediate EU or ECB meeting ahead, the policy makers are playing announcement games with the markets. Draghi has not done that previously. Either he means business, or they are very desperate. The markets are now truly binomial, but I think this is good. Everyone is getting tired of this muddle-through. I wish it went away.

Spanish 10 year bond yield - uptrend

The morning seems to start without much price correction. SPX effectively in a range with more to go before the upper limit - but not much room left. Same thing in EURUSD's downtrend - upside should be limited from here. I wrote my updated views and linked to plenty of views on the Fed and the ECB last night, please have a look:

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

US Close: Why Thursday?

US Open: Super Mario

EU Open: Early weekend?

26th Jul - US Close: Why Thursday?

Plenty of stuff on ECB - and of course the FED. As the major central banks are meeting next week, there is a not-so-slight chance of coordinated action. I will sleep over this and try to write something by US open. Just looking at the charts suggests the SPX is going for a test of the highs around 1370-1375, while EURUSD's rise will probably be capped around 1.2350. Next week will be very interesting.

I was kind of expecting a wild Friday and calm Thursday. Why did Draghi choose to come out in the open on Thursday - verbal intervention would have been much more effective ahead of the weekend. Were they worried about something? Did they want to hide the fact that Spain announced it will not apply for a bailout package, and wanted to contain the damage? Certainly today's statements were planned ahead. So why now? Your ideas are welcome.

Mario surprised all with promises to do “anything it takes”. Good risk rally – or short squeeze going on. I had a chat with 'people' and one possibility is that as the summer holidays are now on and Spain's bailout is definitely not coming at the moment, they are intervening verbally. I don't see the ECB having "licence to print", but some SMP might come next if the markets start doubting Draghi's message. Is that a bazooka in your pocket or are you just happy to see my yields?

Quote of the Day: Draghi summarized - rating agencies wrong & markets wrong & negative comments wrong - only he & Juncker are right - sounds like a 5 year old – TF Market Advisor via twitter

Markets are dull: S&P reached previous lows while EURUSD kept above the 1.20 psychological level (low 1.2050). S&P resistance around 1340, EURUSDU around 1.2150. Technically, as the direction is down, this bounce should be sold, but we are at the low end of the recent trading range and there is relatively little events or news to anticipate, so I have no strong views. QE discussion seems to dominate, as Eurocrats are leaving their offices for their well-deserved holidays. I bet Friday will be a heavily directional day.

25th Jul - US Close: Licence to Kill?

Will the ESM get the banking license? Or maybe the ECB will get a license to directly monetize sovereign debt? All that the ECB has now is a licence to kill the euro zone.

Please see today's earlier posts, as the material has been of exceptional quality. The crisis is clearly at a turning point, but the direction is undecided at the moment. For better or worse, we shall see.

GF&Co- Euro Crisis- No More Safe Havens-7

25th Jul - US Open: Back for air, down for more?

Breakeven inflation not low enough for QE

Risk is back, as SP bounces from a support level and EURUSD also respects the 1.20 level. Move is driven by talks of giving Greece a proper restructuring, more funds and most importantly, giving ESM a banking license. That last one is key – the size of the ESM is not enough to handle the crisis, and it would be a convenient way for the ECB to do quantitative easing via proxy (it is not allowed to perform QE directly). Germany and ECB oppose the idea, but for how long? It is worth remembering that there was talk last night from the Fed that further easing is right around the corner, but after a quick bounce the downtrend continued. I am very careful as we are approaching tipping point-levels in prices and in politics. But dropping those thoughts for now this should be a good time to get the shorts back on.

24th Jul - US Close: Just when I thought...

Another crazy day. SPX broke down from the channel, euro making new lows, curves flattening and yields and CDS prices at record levels. In US, the treasury bond yields moved to new lows in classic safe haven-type of a move. Troika's mission in Greece begins with statements like "nothing has been done for months" and "the debt have to be restructured again". Greece is really a lost case, but someone has to deal with Spain, now. No word on countermeasures as of yet, but the policy choices are very limited: full classic Troika bailout of Spain with haircuts and ECB printing.

Personally, kicking Greece out, unsterilized bond purchases with haircuts and higher inflation targeting might still save the day, especially if this would be combined with a partial/conditional (but not open for interpretation!) guarantee of Spain & Italy by Germany.

Another day in the depths of the euro crisis. A large collection of articles in Finnish for my local audience at the end - it seems the natives are getting restless. The eventual failure of the currency union is being more readily accepted as a realistic scenario, but the government has huge sunk costs that the separatism is not endangering anything - except willingness to throw away more money at the problem.

The SPX and EURUSD trajectories are bending down, and could test the lows / drop to new lows in US session.

EURUSD did not "like" 1.20-level just yet, and rebounded toward the previous low-area around 1.2150, failiing and now looking like another try at the lows is coming. SPX bounced from the channel (or flag, whatever) bottom. Still waiting for a European policy response. Key event will be the Spanish debt maturity coming up - as they will have hard time rolling it, someone needs to help them (ECB? rescue vehicles?), or Spain is in for a fast meltdown.

23rd Jul - US Close: Bans, Highs, Lows, Hikes

Spain has a 12.9bn issue coming due on 7/30. At this rate, it will be difficult for Spain to roll it over. If so, the EFSF will have to intervene, or the ECB may have to activate the SMP again… – Global Macro Trading

Spain and, less importantly, Greece are dominating the headlines. Italy is also getting some mentions, but very limited as of now. Time to go long Spain & short Italy?

Another MJ-12-quality credit post from Macronomics, the Gandalf of the credit markets.

22nd Jul - Weekender: Views & Off-Topics

In this week's edition, Olympics-related articles from, among others, Goldman Sachs. Also, climate change (=global warming) gets our attention, and plenty of other interesting pieces I came across this week. But before the articles, some market views:

I will soon post the Views & Off-Topic post. In this weekend's edition of Trading & Markets plenty of stuff: China, USA, Assets, Trading, Portfolio, Economics, Regulation, The Players, Other

Spain is broke. ECB suggested that bank bond holders could be burned. This translates to either negotiation tactics (do as we say or prepare to die) or possibly means what it says. In that case any bailout measures will not save everyone and everything – and this is making markets nervous, as it is unclear what will be saved in the end. Also, if a really lousy bank is burned in the process and some others get in trouble because of this, who will foot the bill for these additional rescues? Not Spain, because Spain is broke.

21st Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the week in review and next week previewed-links, I will update this later. Come back later for my longer Weekender-posts.

20th Jul - US Close: The Message

The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought, and that’s sort of exactly the Mexican story. It took forever and then it took a night. – Rudi Dornbusch, h/t Krugman

The best of past week. Market were risk-on until bad news started to come out of the ECB regarding Spain. Looks like bank bondholders will get hurt eventually. Good for taxpayers, bad for banks. Another acute crisis summer for Europe, then.

One year.

844 posts.

My very first post Jul-20-2011

Thank you.

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Finnish parliament accepted the Spanish bailout package. The next step is for the Eurogroup today to agree and accept the MoU (memorandum of understanding, or the agreement) on Spain. I have no strong views yet, but we’ve seen the upside targets in EURUSD and SPX and it is Friday – I would guess people would prefer to leave the offices with little less risk on their books. Thus I would not be surprised if we get a bear day.

19th Jul - US Close

Tomorrow the Finnish parliament will say "yes" to the Spanish bailout, while all eyes are on the Friday's Eurogroup meeting. Today's big news was of course the deterioration of the Spanish bond markets after a lousy bond auction. The Spanish bond yields look like they are trying to break up from their recent range. Looking how the previous upswings have been, we could probably see 7.4-.7.5% in a week's time. If it breaks. I don't see any potential reason why it would not, unless the ECB acts.

Posting the US open a bit early and will update this later.

Another massive guest star from Macronomics, your first stop for understanding what's going on in the credit markets.

I was quite proud of the short notes I wrote for yesterday's US close and European open briefs. Do yourself a favor and take a look - or I'll eat your lunch.

18th Jul - US Close: #Winning

Stocks continue rallying and the picture I painted two weeks ago and later updated still holds. Euro is surprisingly weak, and seems to be a major candidate for carry trade shorts. Finland's parliament prepares to debate the collateral agreement and Spanish bank bailout package on Thursday and the vote will happen on Friday. Conveniently the collateral documents were delivered to the parliament members at 8 p.m this evening. So plenty of time to go through structured finance agreements and understand concepts like ISDA, swap, etc. This is how democracy works in Europe nowadays.

Spanish bond yields tickling the 7% “deadline” again – Eurogroup’s meeting still ahead of us.

The old wisdom used to be "when in doubt, stay out of the markets". Actual finance theory and empirical data suggests otherwise - when in doubt, stay in your asset allocation. Yesterday again proved this point. By not keeping to your targets or stops, you have no targets - and the only stop will be your wife. Stick with the plan.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

US Close: Later, we guess?

US Open: Heeeere's Benny!

17th Jul - US Close: Later, we guess?

Markets came in expecting QE-signaling, sold off after not getting any (both EUR and SPX), then figuring that maybe the QE will come later, and going back up.

Bernanke will soon start his babbling, and S&P has edged slightly up ahead of the event. No reason now to be in the markets – short-term target around 1360 is already too close. Reports that Finland and Spain have agreed on the bailout collaterals, but details are scarce – they have to be, because the collaterals have negative net present value and politically it is important for the Finnish government to pretend the collateral agreement is worth something. In today's links some Fed watch-articles, couple of really good ones on Europe, and a collection of interesting articles in Finnish for my native audience.

Here are the morning links, some UBS equity research, usual euro crisis and IMF. For more, see the unusually nice US Close: IMF "bad cops" ECB from last night.

16th Jul - US Close: IMF "bad cops" ECB

A boring day: EURUSD jumping on QE-hope, US stock unchanged, everyone waiting for Bernanke’s testimony, more earnings results and the next European meeting. IMF’s reports are probably today’s most important new piece, as what the IMF thinks, the leaders will eat, courtesy of the “men behind the curtains”, who feed the leaders. The suggestions are pretty clear: Spanish banks must be recapped, and no more subordination from “bail-outs” is needed. ECB must ease its monetary policy by any means. We know Germany will not like this, and as Germany’s constitutional court decided to push its decision on ESM to mid-September, there are no other choices but the ECB. Next policy-setting meeting will be on 2-Aug, just over two weeks from now. What will happen before that? And more importantly, what will happen then?

A bit quiet on the newsfront: I covered the latest Spanish rumors in today’s first post. Eyes are now on Bernanke’s two-day congressional testimony, US earnings and the Eurogroup meeting. Markets are dull, no new views.

Morning briefings + surprise European news from the ECB, good QE piece from UBS and Pictet's monthly report.

15th Jul - Weekender: Views & Off-Topics

My views for the beginning week, together with select article links in Finnish, plus entertaining off-topic articles. My last week’s views can be found here, and a collection of view updates and commentaries here.

14th Jul - Weekender: World, Markets, Trading

A combined post on multiple topics. Also check last night’s US Close: Bragging Rights for my narcissistic, childish joy of calling the markets correctly. I will post my updated views later this weekend.

Previously on MoreLiver's:

Weekender: Weekly Support - weekly review and previews

Best of The Week - for the good articles you might have missed

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Here are the week in review and next week previewed-links. Updates to this coming up later, meanwhile check last night’s US Close: Bragging Rights for my narcissistic, childish joy of calling the markets correctly. Best of The Week is also worth checking out for the good articles you might have missed. Weekender-posts coming up later.

13th Jul - US Close: Bragging Rights

What did I tell you last Sunday? Again on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday (also with a chart), Thursday, and even today around US Open? Basically I told you that ...bottom around 1320-1330 – these would be nice levels to buy with a holding period of several days – so more downside before a buying opportunity.

Here are the cherry-picked treats from my ending week’s posts since the last Best of The Week

Not much for now, I’ll post a “Best of the Week” soon. Markets have been very quiet, but I would not be surprised if the S&P suddenly decides to go up for no other reason than "better be long for the weekend". For more see today’s earlier EU Open: Same old, same old... and US Close: Finnish line from last night. Enjoy the silence while it lasts.

Chinese numbers came in soft, as expected, and Moody’s downgraded Italy. Berlusconi announced he is returning to politics, so now that Spain is destroyed and will go down the Greek path of helpful advice from the Troika, Italy will become the new focal point. See yesterday's US Close: Finnish line and US Open: Spain's comeback for more articles. I will post some horror stuff later today. Beware the Fri-13th!

12th Jul - US Close: Finnish line

Should Finland accept more economic responsibilities, if it would bring stability to the eurozone? That was the question the country’s national broadcasting company polled recently. Given that the question was loaded (if it would bring…), results were strictly against further commitments. This is something that even the euro-crazy Social Democrats and National Coalition parties currently sitting in the government can hardly ignore much longer. YES 22%, NO 66%, DON’T KNOW 12%.

Very nice articles on the Spanish bank bailout - it seems problems are far from over, and sorting out the mess will almost inevitably lead to a host of new trouble. There are signs that Japan and China will both continue easing their monetary policies, while nothing much is coming out of Europe now. My guess is the pressure on Spain will keep coming back, and markets remain in risk aversion-mode.

Both the EURUSD and S&P index are sitting near or at support levels and do seem to be okay buys - but where's the bounce, or what could be the catalyst for the bounce? The longer the market sits at the support levels, the more probable it will be that those levels will be broken and we will see a worsening picture. Still in a buy on dips, keep stops close and take profits early-mood.

The news flow is still very tame. The Fed minutes and the loss in QE expectations keeps the pressure on risk asset prices, while Spain's reactions to budget cuts and Greece's "progress" will probably be the next expected surprises. A nice point from Saxo's Jakobsen: the current deflationary environment is financial repression, just as inflation would be. For more, see last night's US Close: Just a minute... (Fed minutes) US Open: Fed wait (for Spain).

11th Jul - US Close: Just a minute...

Big news of the day were the planned budget cuts in Spain and the Fed’s FOMC minutes that were less dovish than expected. Meanwhile, earnings picture is looking bleak – what else would one suspect with the global macro being what it is? EURUSD and S&P are near support levels and are ok short-term buys. For more, see today's earlier US Open: Fed wait and EU Open: Buying Opportunity. EDIT: Added couple of new ones to Fed comments.

US Open regulars, sry about the late post (another medical emergency here...)

S&P has come down fast, but is sitting around technical chart support levels and is still in a range. Though a break to downside remains a possibility, I would much rather be a bull for a day (Fed minutes out later today) than a sucker for a week.

See yesterday's US Close: Sale! and US Open: Waiting for article links.

10th Jul - US Close: Sale!

Sell-off towards the close. Realization that the economy is tanking, QE is not around the corner and Europe is not fixed finally hit the markets. S&P futures have now reached the support areas and I stick to my view that it is time to go long. Tomorrow the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, and they will be closely monitored for hints of possible QE triggers. I expect the market to gain some risk appetite before the event, but would be really surprised if the minutes would provide anything more than one or two happy trading sessions.

In today's links, IMF wrote about Italy that "downside risks remain". Given the political and polite posturing of the IMF, this could be translated to English as: "things look bad". Spain's bailout memorandum of understanding gets a word or two, and the stock market price drivers get the attention they deserve.

Boring newsflow: China looks bad, nothing much about Europe, US corporate earnings seen topping by everyone and their grandmothers.

The Eurogroup meeting went, and it seems nothing much has changed. I collected the articles of the main news sources below. Germany’s top court will make a temporary decision on ESM today. See last night's US Close: QE Pasa? for article links.

9th Jul - US Close: QE Pasa?

Spanish bond yields near euro-era highs, and above 7%. Consumer credit is expanding in the US, and the chart looks like the trend has finally reversed. This is providing some hope to the markets - while the FED talk on possible further QE is mixed. Tomorrow the Germany's Supreme Court makes a decision regarding ESM - the rescue vehicle is either postponed until further inquiries, or it will be allowed to proceed as agreed. Of course, ESM will not help much and will definitely not end the crisis.

Markets pretty much doing what was expected of them (see below for my views). The eurogroup meeting will probably be very messy today, after the Finnish comments before the weekend, yield spike and lack of any concrete steps from the last summit. I expect slight risk-off, so we will probably see the support levels in S&P and EURUSD that I was expecting. Then it will be time again to buy ahead of the next, big, fat hope rally leg. Whole Europe is just stupid. Force the losses, recap the banks. Stop bullshitting already, please.

Today's Eurogroup meeting and possible monetary policy hints from the Fed officials are the main events of this week. Below are the morning regulars plus couple of others. Please check what I posted during the weekend: I mostly save what is "not needed right now"-articles for these weekend posts.

8th Jul - Sell-Side Research

To kick off this weekend's edition of "Trading and Markets", I quickly summarize my market views. I've combined the Off-Topic and Economics articles to this post. I hope this will not be too much trouble.

The weekend’s article selection on the euro crisis. A special section on “Fixit”-talk (Finland leaving euro)

A true floor-filler: credit market report on Europe by the consistently good Macronomics. I just updated the Weekly Support-post and will soon post the usual Weekender-posts.

7th Jul - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the week in review and next week previewed-links. Updates to this coming up later.

6th Jul - US Close: Humppa!

Stocks and the euro down. US employment stats were bad - but apparently not bad enough for QE. European bond yields are back to the levels we had before the EU-summit. Things are looking quite bad.

What has passed my eyes. Might update this later.

The PIIGS bond yields are now back to levels seen before the “great summit”. Macro has been bad and we've seen easings from China, UK and ECB. Bad payrolls from US = increased chance of Fed’s guido fist pump, good payrolls = earnings outlook is improved. I expect the stock markets to shortly wake up to the bad reality. EDIT: added payrolls section.

The picks from my ending week's posts.

Just the regulars.

5th Jul - US Close: QE expectations?

So now everyone is waiting the US payrolls - if they are bad, the chance of further action from FED is increased. The European peripherial bond yields have continued their march upwards and are near the pre-summit levels. Something stronger than a single page of promises to be fulfilled in six months is soon needed. I’m posting a bit early today, but will update the missing regulars later.

ECB cut the rates. Follow the press conference for more clues on when, why and how the ECB could, would or should save the day. Also China made another cut. EURUSD looks like next stop will be 1.20 in a week's time. Stock futures also reacting slightly down. Looks like another leg of "profit taking". That was sarcasm.

After the US holiday, we're back for a "miniweek" packed with the usual excitement - will the ECB shoot first and ask questions later? Will the US employment figures surprise, and to what direction? Couple of interesting links this morning: I recommend the highlighted chart book from BoAML for the weekend.

4th Jul - 9 Most Read posts in June

11-Jun: Spanish Bailout: The Collection

23-Jun Inside Joke

26-Jun US Close: Best Content Since...

25-Jun EU Open: BIS, Soros + research

19-Jun FED Watch

23-Jun Weekender: Euro Crisis

19-Jun US Close: Announcement Games...

10-Jun Weekender: Euro Crisis

16-May US Close: European Roller Coaster

4th Jul - "US Open": Closed

The US Open report is a bit strange idea for a trading session that does not exist. But some of the articles were so good that I just had to post this ;)

The morning regulars are here - no updates today because of US holiday.

3rd Jul - US Close: Booring

Boring and nothing much happening: summit hangover, US closed tomorrow, ECB ahead.

It will be a very light-volume, meaningless day today, ahead of the US independence day tomorrow. Only ECB's meeting and the expected rate cut and possible but unexpected other measures will be of interest this week.

The morning regulars are here!

2nd Jul - US Close: Summit Soured?

Today some very nice articles on European situation, also added them to the Summit post. Bad macro, doubts about the summit results. 'Risk off' coming up next?

Markets have not moved more after Friday’s rally day. Obviously, European indices are on the positive side, as US had more time to push higher on Friday and Europe has today catched up. Yields, CDS prices also remain somewhat unchanged on a similar “extrapolated” measure. The commentary seems to be cautious on the results of the EU summit. While it is agreed that at least the result was better than nothing, the something that was promised or “agreed upon” largely remains a question mark. There are big issues: Will the ESM be ratified, how will the proposed ECB-banking governance go ahead, how long everything will take (at least half a year, and a lot can happen in that time) - and most importantly, where will the money come from.

The morning regulars are here!

In this week’s edition LIBOR manipulation, a new “must-have” book and some interesting quant strategies.

1st Jul - Weekender: Off-Topic

From hacking to a free Google power user course, it’s all here, and it’s not finance.

Big linkfest to coverage of the latest summit to end all summits. EDIT: later additions to this are at the bottom of the post.

Another stunner from the Macronomics:

Here are the week in review and next week previewed-links.

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