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Tuesday, June 19

19th Jun - FED Watch

Collection of what I've linked to previously, plus several new ones at the bottom of the post.

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Devil's AdvocateTim Duy’s Fed Watch
I think you can tell a story that the most recent data is not sufficient to move Fed forecasts, in which case it remains possible that the Fed does not implement any changes next week.  I have to admit to being a little nervous that we get a Fed "leak" over the next few days in an effort to reset expectations ahead of the meeting.

F-O-M-C sitting in a tree…alphaville / FT
Credit Suisse notes, among others

The Weekly T Report: The Fed and Falling Knives and EUROPETF Market Advisors
Why should the Fed catch a falling knife? - The Fed isn't out of ammunition, just out of new weapons - Greek Elections Don´t Matter Much - The Spanish Bailout Is a Big Deal - JPM

Communications FailureTim Duy’s Fed Watch
It would be very helpful if at the next FOMC meeting policymakers could agree to a specific path for additional easing, if needed, and eliminate the ad-hoc approach.

The Diminishing Returns Of Central Planning ZH
BofA’s thoughts on why more printing would have no impact

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FOMC preview: twist and shoutDanske Bank (pdf)

The Fed: Once Again Behind the Curve and Scrambling to Catch Up...Brad DeLong

How big a bazooke does the Fed need?Humble Student

Fed Seen Twisting to Risk Management to Spur U.S. GrowthBB

Looking Forward to the FOMC Meeting and Beyond: SpeculationsDaily Capitalist

Will Bernanke deliver on this market’s expectations?Saxo Bank

The Fed’s credit problemFelix Salmon / Reuters

Hints of internal Fed divisions on Twitter?MacroScope / Reuters

Why Fed may do more stimulus, in one chartWonkblog / WP

What Happened Into The Last FOMC Meeting?ZH
Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Two Days Until the Fog LiftsTim Duy’s Fed Watch

UniCredit’s Bandholz Says Fed May Extend StimulusBB (mp3)

Harvard’s Feldstein Says Impact of Fed Actions MutedBB (mp3)

Problems with extending Twist, and one final previewalphaville / FT

Is Merkel misinterpreted? Will the FOMC move decisively?Saxo Bank

By Frontrunning QE, Did The Market Make QE Impossible?ZH

What to expect from the FOMC tomorrowSober Look

Europe, Weak Economy Add to Pressure on FedWSJ

Fed Lacks Right Ammo to Bag ‘Animal Spirits’Real Time Economics / WSJ

In Case Of NEW QE, Gold To $1,900-$8,500 Says SocGenZH

20-JUNE (2) 
Art Cashin's No Frills Preview Of The FOMCZH

C’mon, Ben, Just Say It; Please, Just Say QE3MarketBeat / WSJ

Food for thought before and after FOMCSaxo Bank

Fed doves ready to actGavyn Davies / FT

Veysey Says Fed Operation Twist `Baked in the Cake’BB (mp3)

Wells Fargo’s Silva Says Fed Will Skip `QE3’BB (mp3)

FOMC StatementN.Y. FED

Operating PolicyN.Y. FED

FOMC statement, 20 June 2012alphaville / FT
Stocks Drop As Fed Extends Twist Through 2012MarketBeat / WSJ

The Fed acts ... justFree exchange / The Economist

Fed Twists and Shouts, but No QEMarc to Market

Redacted Version of the June 2012 FOMC StatementAleph Blog

Fed worried about economy, but offers only small stimulusWonkblog / WP
Fed twists more, benefit little, BS risks growThe Big Picture

Twist Again: Fed Extends Program to Keep Long Rates LowMarketBeat / WSJ

Let's Twist Again: Goldman's TakeZH

One Hour Later: Stop Hunt Over - Reality ReassertsZH

FOMC kneejerk reaction reverses courseSaxo Bank

Why Bernanke’s not doing moreFelix Salmon / Reuters

The scary take on Ben Bernanke’s remarksEzra Klein / WP

Is the Fed admitting that they are running out of ammunition?ASA

Fed doing twist but no shoutDanske Bank (pdf)

Twist It Is Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

Get ready for QE3 if things don’t get better soonMacroScope / Reuters

Where to Next?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch


PM Dear Dairy: Stealth QEMacro and Cheese

Bernanke Paves the Way for QE3 on August 1stCalculated Risk

The limits of the unconventionalFree exchange / The Economist

Fed Expands Operation Twist by $267 Billion Through 2012BB

Fed ramps up economic stimulus, ready to do moreReuters
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